NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I hate the waiting. Anyone who tells you they know at this point is lying. The Euros solution doesn't have much support from other models, or margin for error. I want to give credit to TWC, they said that NYC and Boston were probably going to get snow, but were hesitant about the DC Area. Shows some professionalism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah there are 4 euro like solutions in the 12 I see. In the overall scheme they may be better than the 12 z members were. They are outnumbered by the dryslot from hell ones though. This one will go down to the wire or close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 They are outnumbered by the dryslot from hell ones though. This one will go down to the wire or close to it. Let's just all agree that someone in the MA forum posting area is going to get majorly shafted. Maybe the whole area. This won't even be the usual shaft where DC gets mix and 10 miles NW gets 5 inches. Temps will be cold enough for snow across the area but someone just won't get more than a few flurries. Radar will be terrifying for this one. Every man for himself. Glad I am more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Let's just all agree that someone in the MA forum posting area is going to get majorly shafted. Maybe the whole area. This won't even be the usual shaft where DC gets mix and 10 miles NW gets 5 inches. Temps will be cold enough for snow across the area but someone just won't get more than a few flurries. Radar will be terrifying for this one. Every man for himself. Glad I am more east. I'm worried that the precip will hang out just around Baltimore and DC will get the dry slot. Otherwise I'm totally confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm worried that the precip will hang out just around Baltimore and DC will get the dry slot. Otherwise I'm totally confident. We are rooting for you. May the hunch be strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm worried that the precip will hang out just around Baltimore and DC will get the dry slot. Otherwise I'm totally confident. lol yeah ur confidence shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 lol yeah ur confidence shows Twas sarcasm. I almost feel worse then I did earlier, because now I have more hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have no say in this but let's keep this thread for meaningful disco only from now on. Even if the 0z suite disappoints. Analysis, data recap, and maps only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Could someone explain convective feedback? I see it mentioned all of the time with regard to models but have no idea what it means. Convection occurs on a smaller scale than can be resolved by the models grid so the GFS ends up parameterizing it (an approximation) which is really done to keep the model from blowing up. When the parameterization is not working properly it can end up impacting the other model fields (winds, heights, pressures etc) through the release of latent heat. Taht can sometimes negatively impact a forecast. Not saying it is this time, I'm not good enough to tell for sure. I do think the 500h vort pattern looks better for us than the surface for what that is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 18z ensembles are much better than OP as well (obviously)...almost 0.50" to DCA Though they are almost equally divided amongst those that really hit us hard and those that semi dry slot us though most now have a southern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Though they are almost equally divided amongst those that really hit us hard and those that semi dry slot us though most now have a southern solution. yeah...I just looked at the members and I am not impressed..there are really only 2 that look like euro with the dixie low and the hybrid A/B...and one of them redevelops the secondary way too far west and looks rainy to me...which basically leaves one member that really gives us a euro type storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Matt, I would think with a southern solution and not much support for a strong primary north of us that a rainy solution is unlikely and that member is a net positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looking forward to glancing at the EC snow members when I get into work tonight. Oh, and folks don't totally "sleep" on the 00Z runs. At least in the medium range periods (days 4-8), the 00Z globals and especially ensembles have exhibited better verification over the 12Z output more often than otherwise for a long while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looking forward to glancing at the EC snow members when I get into work tonight. Oh, and folks don't totally "sleep" on the 00Z runs. At least in the medium range periods (days 4-8), the 00Z globals and especially ensembles have exhibited better verification over the 12Z output more often than otherwise for a long while now. ummm....trust me...you do NOT have to worry about that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looking forward to glancing at the EC snow members when I get into work tonight. Oh, and folks don't totally "sleep" on the 00Z runs. At least in the medium range periods (days 4-8), the 00Z globals and especially ensembles have exhibited better verification over the 12Z output more often than otherwise for a long while now. But the 0Z runs tonight are only 3 days out. And at this range isn't the OP a lot more useful than the ensembles?. I was always under the impression that inside 72 hours the ensembles do not have much value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 But the 0Z runs tonight are only 3 days out. And at this range isn't the OP a lot more useful than the ensembles?. I was always under the impression that inside 72 hours the ensembles do not have much value. Yes, we're already reaching the point that the Op is much more useful than the ensembles, particularly for the GFS. I wouldn't say the ensembles are useless, just that I'd favor the GFS Op. I've never really gotten a great answer about the Euro ensembles, but with their higher resolution, I think they're still adding value for nearly all times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I have no say in this but let's keep this thread for meaningful disco only from now on. Even if the 0z suite disappoints. Analysis, data recap, and maps only. lol yeah bob thats what I was thinking too maybe we can get good analysis only but whatever. just hope we get the good stuff to fall and well all be happy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yes, we're already reaching the point that the Op is much more useful than the ensembles, particularly for the GFS. I wouldn't say the ensembles are useless, just that I'd favor the GFS Op. I've never really gotten a great answer about the Euro ensembles, but with their higher resolution, I think they're still adding value for nearly all times. I think with complicated systems it's good to look at the members just to see how supportive they are for the op. Right now it looks 50/50 with the euro/gfs. Which is good. Inside of 3 days I usually just check ens to see what % are supportive and judge the op based on that. They help to set the goal posts of how far an op can jump next run as well. It's a simple approach and I have no idea if it's a good strategy but I'm a #'s guy so it seems logical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro control looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro control looks good Details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Details? Looks like euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM is a healthier looking system. Only posting because I was amazed at how slight the differences at 500 were but gave a surface that looked a good deal better. Interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looking forward to glancing at the EC snow members when I get into work tonight. Oh, and folks don't totally "sleep" on the 00Z runs. At least in the medium range periods (days 4-8), the 00Z globals and especially ensembles have exhibited better verification over the 12Z output more often than otherwise for a long while now. I don't think this is generally true for the deterministic GFS, at least for the last 30-60 days in the Northern Hemisphere. In fact, for leads of 5-8 days the 12z and 18z cycles have slightly higher (but not statistically significant) scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM is a healthier looking system. Only posting because I was amazed at how slight the differences at 500 were but gave a surface that looked a good deal better. Interesting stuff. It's a big step in the right direction, but not quite there yet. Needs to slow down just a little bit. I think the triple low at 66 is an attempt to picture the phase in motion... we want to lose the low off OC and keep the one off NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's a big step in the right direction, but not quite there yet. Needs to slow down just a little bit. I think the triple low at 66 is an attempt to picture the phase in motion... we want to lose the low off OC and keep the one off NC... Yeah that was one of the changes, a slight slowing and an ever so slight deepening at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's a big step in the right direction, but not quite there yet. Needs to slow down just a little bit. I think the triple low at 66 is an attempt to picture the phase in motion... we want to lose the low off OC and keep the one off NC... Past 48 hours isn't very meaningful with a storm like this.Not saying I'm mad at the run over run changes late in the cycle. 500 vort maps looked pretty good through 48 or so. It was a good run afaic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's a big step in the right direction, but not quite there yet. Needs to slow down just a little bit. I think the triple low at 66 is an attempt to picture the phase in motion... we want to lose the low off OC and keep the one off NC... One thing I think might be wrong with the NAM is it's low near us as the vort is approaching. The atmosphere is a fluid so it should have the right relationship with the 500 vort. Back in the old days before the models got so good, I would have shifted the low south to better fit the 500h vort and upper level divergence associated with the entrance region of the jet. Now I don't know. Either way, this was a good run. Too bad I won't be up for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thanks Wes. I was thinking along the same lines but you made me feel more confident in what I was seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thanks Wes. I was thinking along the same lines but you made me feel more confident in what I was seeing It could still be right...or the 18Z GFS could be right. Nothing really has changed except the southern track is looking more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Definitely improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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