Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 How did Euro ens look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 How did Euro ens look? Still interested in 1/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 Still interested in 1/3.Yeah that's what this thread is about. So that's good.Nothing on NYD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Of which you're one Neh, not really. I used to be, oh, back when I was your age of 17 ... but now that I'm all growsed up and have broadened my interest arena to encompass a large range of life aspects, I can honestly say that I really don't care. In fact, I find it more fascinating that the Euro is actually bringing our region to or exceeding historic cold, then rains 2.5 days later, only to return the region to deep cold ... possibly having never seen a flake of snow in doing so? That would be a fantastic feat - one should be able to see. It's probably all bullcrap and it won't play out that way, but like I said, the run its self is like an exercise in dark humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 This 12z Euro run is comically bad for snow geese. It's succeeded in engineering the perfect nightmare run. Historic cold --> rain --> historic cold. awesome! Still quite a few days away but interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Messenger look up! It sucks to ski into trees when you're posting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 the 1/3 threat still looks appetizing and it is succeeding as previously stated holding back energy. the pattern is progressive so that has me concerned right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It's funny how different the euro and gfs are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It's funny how different the euro and gfs are. Which one do you think is right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 It's funny how different the euro and gfs are. gfs is really liking 1/2-3 on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The gfs has adamently had this storm showing up consistently since around 300hr with every run showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 gfs is really liking 1/2-3 on this run. Can we hold this for 6.5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Which one do you think is right? Probably neither to a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Can we hold this for 6.5 days? Man I wish we could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Probably neither to a point. Yeah I think its kind of a mess of embedded vortmaxes that will probably take another day or two to untangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 GFS barely finishes this event with the next one barreling in. I think the resolution will be multiple impulses with bursts of qpf. Could be very nice when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Someone correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't the GFS the first model to sniff the Dec 14-15th storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Bombogenesis on for the Jan 3 event on this particular GFS cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Bombogenesis indeed. It will be really interesting to see the next several days of runs on this particular storm, EURO will probably come into some sort of an agreement on the energy moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 That would be nice verbatim. Obviously little to no chance that this is the outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Looks like a KU? If we massage the models enough it will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 David Tolleris says Euro ens mean is a miss south as PV crushes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 David Tolleris says Euro ens mean is a miss south as PV crushes If given the option of really cold and several bouts of snow vs. incredibly cold and dry, I'll take the former. Especially if it has incredibly cold following it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 If given the option of really cold and several bouts of snow vs. incredibly cold and dry, I'll take the former. Especially if it has incredibly cold following it.if you go back over time 99% of the the time the PV and confluence ends up farther north and less than modeled. There's no blocking and + AO. Absolutely no scientific reason why things aren't farther north than Euro products show. And to have the GFS so far north when it usually is squashed over Bermuda speaks volumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 if you go back over time 99% of the the time the PV and confluence ends up farther north and less than modeled. There's no blocking and + AO. Absolutely no scientific reason why things aren't farther north than Euro products show. And to have the GFS so far north when it usually is squashed over Bermuda speaks volumes In cases of blocking i think the confluence is almost always underdone in ne mass se nh sw maine. Not sure w /out blocking... But this is in regard to qpf on outer NE side of storm w confluence to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 If the chips fall into place this could be an epic stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 If the chips fall into place this could be an epic stretchyeah you are locked in for a classic Maine winter replete with brutal cold, ice, snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 yeah you are locked in for a classic Maine winter replete with brutal cold, ice, snow 1968 comes to mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 System is a mess on the individual ensemble members. Heavy caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 1968 comes to mind69 Jeff? Or 68 Dec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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