Big Snow Threat Disco Jan2/3

[CoastalWx]

Bleh.

 

Is the EC showing anything noteworthy on this?

 

They try to get a little -SN on NYD, but otherwise the low seems to be well offshore. Extremely cold though.

[jamesnichols1989]

We have a big cold shot coming that's a given, question is do we get a snowstorm.  I don't know why everyone is so mean to me about the Jan 05 KU, its a storm of reference given its severity of its impacts on Cape Cod, MA and North and South Shores of BOS.  I mean it is always a possibility to have another snowstorm of its severity with a blocking regime developing.  We are seeing signs of a block developing over the Atlantic Ocean.  A 50/50 low near the position and we have a ridge over the top of the low, a rex block, it could be transitional block, but it could develop as the GFS is showing.

[Tropopause_Fold]

We have a big cold shot coming that's a given, question is do we get a snowstorm.  I don't know why everyone is so mean to me about the Jan 05 KU, its a storm of reference given its severity of its impacts on Cape Cod, MA and North and South Shores of BOS.  I mean it is always a possibility to have another snowstorm of its severity with a blocking regime developing.  We are seeing signs of a block developing over the Atlantic Ocean.  A 50/50 low near the position and we have a ridge over the top of the low, a rex block, it could be transitional block, but it could develop as the GFS is showing.

there's a reason it was >1/50 year storm for "Cape Cod, MA" 

[CoastalWx]

We have a big cold shot coming that's a given, question is do we get a snowstorm.  I don't know why everyone is so mean to me about the Jan 05 KU, its a storm of reference given its severity of its impacts on Cape Cod, MA and North and South Shores of BOS.  I mean it is always a possibility to have another snowstorm of its severity with a blocking regime developing.  We are seeing signs of a block developing over the Atlantic Ocean.  A 50/50 low near the position and we have a ridge over the top of the low, a rex block, it could be transitional block, but it could develop as the GFS is showing.

 

You really have to ask that?

[weathafella]

We have a big cold shot coming that's a given, question is do we get a snowstorm.  I don't know why everyone is so mean to me about the Jan 05 KU, its a storm of reference given its severity of its impacts on Cape Cod, MA and North and South Shores of BOS.  I mean it is always a possibility to have another snowstorm of its severity with a blocking regime developing.  We are seeing signs of a block developing over the Atlantic Ocean.  A 50/50 low near the position and we have a ridge over the top of the low, a rex block, it could be transitional block, but it could develop as the GFS is showing.

Oh for gods sake man up! And don't presume every little low is a ku.

[CoastalWx]

Hey, next summer could be a weaker version of the Hurricane of '38 only 500 miles SE.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Oh for gods sake man up! And don't presume every little low is a ku.

 

[ORH_wxman]

We have a big cold shot coming that's a given, question is do we get a snowstorm.  I don't know why everyone is so mean to me about the Jan 05 KU, its a storm of reference given its severity of its impacts on Cape Cod, MA and North and South Shores of BOS.  I mean it is always a possibility to have another snowstorm of its severity with a blocking regime developing.  We are seeing signs of a block developing over the Atlantic Ocean.  A 50/50 low near the position and we have a ridge over the top of the low, a rex block, it could be transitional block, but it could develop as the GFS is showing.

 

 

If you keep referring to the Jan '05 storm everytime a pattern turns wintry, then people won't take you seriously after a while. That's why we encourage you (in different ways) not to use that analog unless the synoptic setup actually calls for it. Or, in my case sometimes, I'll use an extreme analog if I'm outlinign what a certain pattern may have produced in the past.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We have a big cold shot coming that's a given, question is do we get a snowstorm.  I don't know why everyone is so mean to me about the Jan 05 KU, its a storm of reference given its severity of its impacts on Cape Cod, MA and North and South Shores of BOS.  I mean it is always a possibility to have another snowstorm of its severity with a blocking regime developing.  We are seeing signs of a block developing over the Atlantic Ocean.  A 50/50 low near the position and we have a ridge over the top of the low, a rex block, it could be transitional block, but it could develop as the GFS is showing.

You've answered your own question.

 

Stop referencing a 1/200 year event everytime we see damn low on the charts.

 

For the love of Jesus H Christ, take a break.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sunday night is a blizzard with a noose.

[40/70 Benchmark]

there's a reason it was >1/50 year storm for "Cape Cod, MA" 

I think it was much more anomalus than that, no??

[jamesnichols1989]

Oh for gods sake man up! And don't presume every little low is a ku.

 

Man up, its childish to always knock me down when I bring up a past snowstorm.  We only don't compare it because we don't think it will happen again.  Truth is it can always happen again and more than once in a 50 year span Phil.  Lighten up a bit with the references.  This storm can be quite powerful, maybe not the severity of the Jan 05 KU, and maybe it won't be a KU alright, but I'm saying this one has the chance, because of the amount of cold air present, it has a better chance of going out to sea than actually cutting up the APPS as a GLC.

[CoastalWx]

The euro op is BS. Classic cutoff left all alone over Mexico. Falling right into its bias..it's done this several times this winter.

[jamesnichols1989]

I don't do it everytime I see a new low on the map, I see it with potential, did I not say that, my bad, it has potential to be qutie potent, is that better.  Jeez

[Baroclinic Zone]

The euro op is BS. Classic cutoff left all alone over Mexico. Falling right into its bias..it's down this several times this winter.

You see that too.  I's night and day different from the GFS, although the GGEM has that feature too.

[weathafella]

I don't do it everytime I see a new low on the map, I see it with potential, did I not say that, my bad, it has potential to be qutie potent, is that better.  Jeez

James, numerous diverse posters hinted at the problem in your analysis. Time to take constructive criticism and not be a baby about it. You can do this!

[jamesnichols1989]

The EURO op has its classic SW cutoff delaying its departure from MX and the northern stream out runs the southern stream system and pushes the SW energy out to sea this run.  Also the PV is almost in 50/50 position, the GFS is further east with the PV than the EURO hence less ridging out ahead of the northern stream shortwave, so we get flooded with cold dry air and no storm.  CLassic as Scott mentioned classic bias.  I think we should watch the GFS over the next 48 hours before the EURO stops its bias in the <96 hour range.

[CoastalWx]

Look it can always happen...but it looks like classic euro op behavior. We'll see.

[jamesnichols1989]

James, numerous diverse posters hinted at the problem in your analysis. Time to take constructive criticism and not be a baby about it. You can do this!

 

Fine I will take it as constructive criticism.  Point taken.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Much better

[toronto blizzard]

Man up, its childish to always knock me down when I bring up a past snowstorm. We only don't compare it because we don't think it will happen again. Truth is it can always happen again and more than once in a 50 year span Phil. Lighten up a bit with the references. This storm can be quite powerful, maybe not the severity of the Jan 05 KU, and maybe it won't be a KU alright, but I'm saying this one has the chance, because of the amount of cold air present, it has a better chance of going out to sea than actually cutting up the APPS as a GLC.

Why is it impossible for the low to go up the APPS?

[ORH_wxman]

Why is it impossible for the low to go up the APPS?

 

 

He didn't say it was impossible...he said there was a better chance it goes out to sea than cutting up the apps...that part I agree with since we have a progressive pattern with a western ridge.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I think it was much more anomalus than that, no??

i was just grabbing a number. my guess is probably 1 in 50 to 1 in 75...something along those lines. it's tough to know for sure because the record keeping is pretty meh out here.

[jamesnichols1989]

He didn't say it was impossible...he said there was a better chance it goes out to sea than cutting up the apps...that part I agree with since we have a progressive pattern with a western ridge.

 

Glad we can be agree on something.  

 

Everyone if you can take a look at my signature, I would appreciate it if you could see where I am coming from.

[jamesnichols1989]

i was just grabbing a number. my guess is probably 1 in 50 to 1 in 75...something along those lines. it's tough to know for sure because the record keeping is pretty meh out here.

 

I think the last 30"+ storm out here was the February 4-6th 1960 snowstorm on Paul Kocin's NESIS list.

[N. OF PIKE]

Wrt "1 in a xyz period "storms. It seems like they are happening more often. Wether this recent period of frequently anomalous storms will be short lived ..sorta like 92 nor easter 93 super storm 97 April blizzard wrt anomalous events, we shall see.

Octobomb, sandy, blizz 13'......

[Typhoon Tip]

This 12z Euro run is comically bad for snow geese.    It's succeeded in engineering the perfect nightmare run.  Historic cold --> rain --> historic cold.  awesome!  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Wrt "1 in a xyz period "storms. It seems like they are happening more often. Wether this recent period of frequently anomalous storms will be short lived ..sorta like 92 nor easter 93 super storm 97 April blizzard wrt anomalous events, we shall see.

Octobomb, sandy, blizz 13'......

Don't forget the fire hose last march. Last year was pretty epic. How anomalous was it to get two 20+ inch KU events in the same season? In this area anyway

[Damage In Tolland]

This 12z Euro run is comically bad for snow geese.    It's succeeded in engineering the perfect nightmare run.  Historic cold --> rain --> historic cold.  awesome!  

Of which you're one

[ace0927]

I think the last 30"+ storm out here was the February 4-6th 1960 snowstorm on Paul Kocin's NESIS list.

 

I am pretty sure you mean March 1960