Randy4Confluence Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 gfs beginning to bow to the Euro with the Northen stream outrunning the Southern stream and no phasing like prevoius runs. Maybe the Southern stream sw develops into something seperate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 69 Jeff? Or 68 Dec? 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Heavy suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 6z gfs looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro made a huge jump twds a good hit. As it is now, it gets light snow into SNE. As we discussed yesterday..the PV retreated some and less confluence..With no blocking there's just nothing to keep this suppressed. That trend of PV edging north will probably continue the next few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro made a huge jump twds a good hit. As it is now, it gets light snow into SNE. As we discussed yesterday..the PV retreated some and less confluence..With no blocking there's just nothing to keep this suppressed. That trend of PV edging north will probably continue the next few runs It will be interesting to see how things adjust over the next few days. Seeing the 00z gfs toss it was disappointing given it's repeated runs with it. But, the 06z looked a little more aggressive. EC's move is still a miss. Several days to see if this has any legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Might be smoking cirrus on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Might be smoking cirrus on this one Perhaps not even have cirrus. I wouldn't rule that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Euro made a huge jump twds a good hit. As it is now, it gets light snow into SNE. As we discussed yesterday..the PV retreated some and less confluence..With no blocking there's just nothing to keep this suppressed. That trend of PV edging north will probably continue the next few runs You sound like me when a threat is modeled to hit SNE . There's always a reason for it to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 You sound like me when a threat is modeled to hit SNE . There's always a reason for it to come north. This pattern just screams of a north trend. if we had blocking we'd be in trouble..but there's nothing to get it suppressed. GEFS look nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 Might be smoking cirrus on this one Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan3h Here comes New Moon & 2 Nor'easters. 1st is warm Sunday Night. Second is bigger, colder, slower Thur-Fri. By next weekend New Eng snowed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan3h Here comes New Moon & 2 Nor'easters. 1st is warm Sunday Night. Second is bigger, colder, slower Thur-Fri. By next weekend New Eng snowed in Not sure of the context of the statement. But with five days lead time, I'd be a little more discerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GEFS are still meh looking. Hopefully this doesn't go offshore. And Tim Kelley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 GEFS are still meh looking. Hopefully this doesn't go offshore. And Tim Kelley. awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 GEFS are still meh looking. Hopefully this doesn't go offshore. And Tim Kelley. They get the .25 contour well past ALB..It's coming. No backing off from you now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 They get the .25 contour well past ALB..It's coming. No backing off from you now take a look at the spread in the ind members though. that said, good look for coastal peeps right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 take a look at the spread in the ind members though. that said, good look for coastal peeps right now. I can tell how you're STARTING to come around lol. You edged your forecast for late week from sunny and highs struggling to touch 20 on the Cape..to mid 20's and possible flurries/light snows. PV retreat FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 take a look at the spread in the ind members though. that said, good look for coastal peeps right now. I always look for what the qpf contour does though..If I see it steadily increase and bump west each run then you know what's coming..If it just holds without increasing that's usually the sign of a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 It would be comical if this shifted north And north And north And then it rained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 It would be comical if this shifted north And north And north And then it rained LOL--I was just thinking the same thing. No block, nothing to keep it suppressed. What a hoot that would be in light of tomorrow and prior events. I'm leaning caper scraper for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I can tell how you're STARTING to come around lol. You edged your forecast for late week from sunny and highs struggling to touch 20 on the Cape..to mid 20's and possible flurries/light snows. PV retreat FTW well...i guess i appreciate you looking. lol. the change though was more to reflect a little more flow off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 take a look at the spread in the ind members though. that said, good look for coastal peeps right now. heavy, heavy spread in there. scooter caution flags flying right now. still 2-3 days before we get a better sense of this "big snow threat" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 @HarveyWCVB: Some snow is possible next Thu./Thu. Nt…but uncertain at this time if storm will come close enough Harvey Leonard is such a hypster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I said yesterday there is a better chance this goes out to sea, than cutting inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 You're lips move but we can't hear what you're saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 You're lips move but we can't hear what you're saying PV will likely suppress this storm more so than moving out of the way in time for a closer to inland track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well I agree James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2013 Author Share Posted December 28, 2013 PV will likely suppress this storm more so than moving out of the way in time for a closer to inland track.PV always retreats north and never ends up as far south as modeled . Esp with no blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Potentially epic first half of January looks to begin epically frustrating to me right now. Thread-the-needle hosing, followed by an overbearing PV. Tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 There's almost a semi block developing near Greenland, and especially with the PV location. It acts like a 50/50 low block suppressing this system. I also thought yesterday this wouldn't be a mid Atlantic storm, I could be wrong, but I think this is a clipper like storm with a suppressed southern stream system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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