MJHUB Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 So your thinking 4 inches here? check out wpri 12's snowmap. 4-6 almost to westerly and 99 percent of bristol county. at least the snow will fall when I'm awake let the rain fall when I'm sleeping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 LOL--I think I might ping for a while on the NAM. On the plus side, just fired up the snowblower. Glad it works. 3.5/-3. 15* cancel?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 North of the border jackpot under the mesobanding? Yeah even I may be too far south, lol. That thing would absolutely rip. Jay Peak and that area needs the snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Then Grinch next weekend. Deep deep melting. Seems par for the course. Too many Decembers that I remember snow falling mid month just to have it melted or sometimes flooded away right around Christmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Uncertainty is really about the sleet. A period of nice snow growth right around midnight should allow a few inches to rip even down to the coast. Snow growth goes to hell as temperatures warm and omega becomes centered in lower troposphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Apparently Burbanks crew hasn't gotten the memo. Still aggressively pushing that 8-12 into southeast ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Then Grinch next weekend. Deep deep melting. Yeah--that one blows. Man love that 12z NAM relative humidity maps... Nice curling deform band possible up this way. Models have continued to look better up here over the last 24 hours. We'll see. NAM.JPG Mad reworking of snowfall maps in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Then Grinch next weekend. Deep deep melting. We may not need the Atlantic all the time, but sometimes it helps to have some blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yeah even I may be too far south, lol. That thing would absolutely rip. Jay Peak and that area needs the snow though. SREF best snow probs are north of the border too. Congrats YUL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Apparently Burbanks crew hasn't gotten the memo. Still aggressively pushing that 8-12 into southeast ma No way that happens. Warmth isn't going to be denied with this track. More sure than ever 1-3 does it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 SREF best snow probs are north of the border too. Congrats YUL. At least I'll get my qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 LOL--I think I might ping for a while on the NAM. On the plus side, just fired up the snowblower. Glad it works. 3.5/-3. 15* cancel?? thanks for reminding me7-11" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Then Grinch next weekend. Deep deep melting. That's far from certain..Front is thru Saturday regardless..Friday is the day to possibly worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 No way that happens. Warmth isn't going to be denied with this track. More sure than ever 1-3 does it here.Yeah I was shocked to still see that. I don't even think it's done trending north west at this point. I'm quickly losing hope for anything more than a couple that isn't washed away.Sucks that this had to trend in the wrong last minute. Up north will make out like bandits as usual. Par for the course pretty much Rich get richer, poor get poorer. Agitating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Man all mets had their posts ready waiting for the nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 KHPN 141425Z 07008KT 1/4SM R16/2800V4500FT SN FZFG VV002 M07/M09 A3047 RMK AO2 P0000 Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 You can probably blame the last second NW trend in the modeling in the last 12 hours on the intensity of the southern stream s/w... guidance has been too adamant about shearing out the upper level feature too soon as it moves into the upper-level confluence zone associated with the strengthening upper-level jet. Instead its hanging on to coherency and thus producing larger height falls in its path (and thus more ridge building downstream due to the positive moisture feedback of diabatic heating due to saturated air parcel). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 KHPN 141425Z 07008KT 1/4SM R16/2800V4500FT SN FZFG VV002 M07/M09 A3047 RMK AO2 P0000 Not bad. Nice. "Weathertap has solid returns over all of western MA (west of 91)--nary a flake here at the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yeah I was shocked to still see that. I don't even think it's done trending north west at this point. I'm quickly losing hope for anything more than a couple that isn't washed away. Sucks that this had to trend in the wrong last minute. Up north will make out like bandits as usual. Par for the course pretty much Rich get richer, poor get poorer. Agitating Yeah I was shocked to still see that. I don't even think it's done trending north west at this point. I'm quickly losing hope for anything more than a couple that isn't washed away. Sucks that this had to trend in the wrong last minute. Up north will make out like bandits as usual. Par for the course pretty much Rich get richer, poor get poorer. Agitating It's mid December and it's snowing again (oes started here) nothing to complain about at all. This is a poor track for the CP most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 that seems generouseven this. 01 stuff is going well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It's mid December and it's snowing again (oes started here) nothing to complain about at all. This is a poor track for the CP most of the time. That's true, should take what I get be happy and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 You can probably blame the last second NW trend in the modeling in the last 12 hours on the intensity of the southern stream s/w... guidance has been too adamant about shearing out the upper level feature too soon as it moves into the upper-level confluence zone associated with the strengthening upper-level jet. Instead its hanging on to coherency and thus producing larger height falls in its path (and thus more ridge building downstream due to the positive moisture feedback of diabatic heating due to saturated air parcel). Hey Phil. Dare I say that Albany is actually looking to be in a prime position now for a change. A foot is not out of the question? Storm track looks perfect for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 You can probably blame the last second NW trend in the modeling in the last 12 hours on the intensity of the southern stream s/w... guidance has been too adamant about shearing out the upper level feature too soon as it moves into the upper-level confluence zone associated with the strengthening upper-level jet. Instead its hanging on to coherency and thus producing larger height falls in its path (and thus more ridge building downstream due to the positive moisture feedback of diabatic heating due to saturated air parcel). That does look rather healthy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The 12z WRF (NMM) suggests that the 850 hPa low never really develops offshore until after 12z tomorrow... leaving a very large trough axis dangling from SE Canada all to way off Cape Cod... thus the warm air floods in to the coastal states without a closed 850 hPa cyclone to create northern ageostrophic vectors further inland away from the coast. Even interior MA should change over if the 12z NMM run is correct although it will after ~75% of the precipitation has ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 not a fan of them in general...but the sref snow probs are horrible for SNE. not sure how the algorithms work. given high thickness event, could see where they aren't seeing the snow in SNE well, but geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 KHPN 141425Z 07008KT 1/4SM R16/2800V4500FT SN FZFG VV002 M07/M09 A3047 RMK AO2 P0000 Not bad. Snow really overperforming thus far in SW CT, I'm only in 15dbz right now on the edge of northern new haven and fairfield, and its accumulating with some 25-30dbz not too far away. If we can somehow get 2-4" of snow hopefully that can keep snow totals decent with early changeover coming from SW to NE by 10pm. Meteorologist from my station says SN+ in Norwalk I'll be driving down there soon should be fun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hey Phil. Dare I say that Albany is actually looking to be in a prime position now for a change. A foot is not out of the question? Storm track looks perfect for us. Shh you will jinx us The key will be the 00-06z period... where the best frontogenesis goes right over us (and actually over CT, RI, MA and most of the coastal states). This will the period where we could be cranking out 1-2" per hour snowfall rates at times. Afterwards we fight both the dry slot aloft (moisture become shallow and outside of the snow growth temperature range) and the warming profile (although we just barely stay below freezing in the entire column in ALB). The latter fact won't matter when we only have low level vertical velocities generating precipitation in a shallow column that is outside of the snow growth zone, so expect to see more sleet/freezing rain in the 09-12z period even in ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Man all mets had their posts ready waiting for the nam... hi Res tossed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 hi Res tossed? L goes up 91? congrats ME and maritimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Snow really overperforming thus far in SW CT, I'm only in 15dbz right now on the edge of northern new haven and fairfield, and its accumulating with some 25-30dbz not too far away. If we can somehow get 2-4" of snow hopefully that can keep snow totals decent with early changeover coming from SW to NE by 10pm. Meteorologist from my station says SN+ in Norwalk I'll be driving down there soon should be fun.. we've got 1.5 inches here already...18 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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