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December 14/15 winter storm threat part II


Typhoon Tip

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GOOD-LUCK with all these maps and guesses.

 

 

This thing is all over the place. Dynamics is the wrench. With an extreme CF one can envision going 10 miles and from nothing to 8-10"

I'm thinking Phil nailed this earlier with his narrative although respectfully the map I think is off. A very sharp delineation of the have and have nada. Further N and W ~ Rt.495 easier just put a general 10-14" down and it's gold. Top it off with possible 3"hr rates and a distinct possible dryslot. And lastly lest forget the flash freeze.

 

OY VEY

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There is a sharper temp gradient right now at 06z than models have been indicating. Not quite sure what that means for tomorrow, but the cold to the north is being under estimated while the airmass to our south is going close to guidance right now. (weeding out some of the stray rad readings like SLK)

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There is a sharper temp gradient right now at 06z than models have been indicating. Not quite sure what that means for tomorrow, but the cold to the north is being under estimated while the airmass to our south is going close to guidance right now. (weeding out some of the stray rad readings like SLK)

 

 

The Euro is actually doing the best looking at that model now. It was a little too cold down in M.A. for right now though. But the euro has been a little weird with its 2m temps lately...it seems to have been biased cold at night....esp radiational cooling conditions.

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Both nam and gfs kinda cut back on the dry slot to some extent. Almost like its trying to give this thing a more pronounced hook. Yesterdays runs had e ct ri and cape dry slotting rather quickly. Prob doesnt mean much, just something ive noticed and kept my eye on.

I think everyone has done a great job with this... A Great team effort lol.

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The southern stream s/w is looking pretty impressive right now... definitely stronger than what was modeled several days ago (suprise suprise)

 

24zx3z9.gif

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F006/500vort/namer/500vort_namer_dprog.html (look at the last 60 hours to verification time... significant deepening of the southern stream s/w).

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The southern stream s/w is looking pretty impressive right now... definitely stronger than what was modeled several days ago (suprise suprise)

 

24zx3z9.gif

If only some kind of blocking pattern could be present so that...

 

So that... Anyway, good luck, SNE. Front end looks pretty decent for you guys, although east of 93/95 looks :yikes: after midnight.

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Looks like it maybe time to get outta dodge, i think my fate is sealed east of -i-93 during the hellacious part of the thump. Not sure but man 34 f rain would sure blow from say 3-9 am. Ray is lookin right on line to me but snow. This could still overperform but damn that S stream shortwave has models playing catch up still.

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Look at the freaking temps over the border in southern Canada on spc mesoscale observations , wow u kidding me . -20 to -30 wow. Frigid in Bos right now.

-8 MPV, vt so far.

 

This is certainly shaping up for some impressive low-level frontogenesis tonight... even without a well defined coastal low, the ageostrophic vertical circulation produced from the strengthening temperature gradient will do all the heavy lifting for precip with this event. It also may result in some very high snowfall rates well inland as well in addition to coastal regions in the early going. There will be a lot of winners with this event prior to mixing. 

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