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December 14/15 winter storm threat part II


Typhoon Tip

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I'm not feeling this one. There is a wrench here and I'm not seeing it. No enthusiasm what-so-ever.

Could be because it's Friday the 13th, employer announced my job is moving to R.I., or because my fav Aunt passed tonight. A very sad day. My condolences go out to James... 

Sorry to hear that Don.  Prayers and condolences for both you and James.

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Its kind of freaky how it keeps topping the list at different lead times...now 36h lead time:

 

 

Dec13_36h_Analogs.png

 

I can't get this analog out of my head. Why can't this next storm perform just this same? I thought high placement and antecedent airmass were a bit better than that storm too.  I feel like this is that storm all over again, but maybe I am missing something.

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I can't get this analog out of my head. Why can't this next storm perform just this same? I thought high placement and antecedent airmass were a bit better than that storm too.  I feel like this is that storm all over again, but maybe I am missing something.

 

 

It is...the only question is if we can rip at 2" per hour like we did in that one for a prolonged period. The thump was like 5 hours for pike-northward, but most of it was spent at 2" per hour in 12/16/07.

 

I think the dynamics are there in this one like that one. The one limiting factor is that when the lift starts to go complete apesh*t, it is not lining up with the best snow growth region in BOS. So that could affect things...by how much, its hard to say. OTOH, we have an unstable layer for a time in the snow growth region even though the modeled max omega is below it. That could easily be crucial tomorrow night.

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That'd be awesome for here for sure.

 

 

That's what I would forecast for there...but I could see it not working out. There were systems that didn't work out as well and then there were some that gave you like 5-7". I think the airmass is cold enough that you'll get yours before it can be overcome. I also think you are going to get some OES from this for a time tomorrow before the main stuff moves in.

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It is...the only question is if we can rip at 2" per hour like we did in that one for a prolonged period. The thump was like 5 hours for pike-northward, but most of it was spent at 2" per hour in 12/16/07.

 

I think the dynamics are there in this one like that one. The one limiting factor is that when the lift starts to go complete apesh*t, it is not lining up with the best snow growth region in BOS. So that could affect things...by how much, its hard to say. OTOH, we have an unstable layer for a time in the snow growth region even though the modeled max omega is below it. That could easily be crucial tomorrow night.

 

Yeah the lift starts to get dicey as far as the snow growth placement goes, but then you have other positives like you mentioned. But I'm sort of putting it all together in my head and I feel like it has the potential to perform similar. I say potential because it's going to have to be a non-stop 30+DBZ echo train coming up from the SW. We can't afford any breaks or banded nature to it.

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That's what I would forecast for there...but I could see it not working out. There were systems that didn't work out as well and then there were some that gave you like 5-7". I think the airmass is cold enough that you'll get yours before it can be overcome. I also think you are going to get some OES from this for a time tomorrow before the main stuff moves in.

 

Yeah if you get an inch or two from that...then it only takes 2-3" from the main stuff to get a respectable 3-5 down there. I don't see why not, but that's me.

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That's what I would forecast for there...but I could see it not working out. There were systems that didn't work out as well and then there were some that gave you like 5-7". I think the airmass is cold enough that you'll get yours before it can be overcome. I also think you are going to get some OES from this for a time tomorrow before the main stuff moves in.

I still am snow covered here from the event a few days ago. Unprecedented for this early in the year.

How's the euro looking?

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