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12/6-12/7 obs thread


Bostonseminole

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The ALB sounding has a thin warm layer at 800mb which seemed to be a bit warmer than modeled at least on the 18z GFS. It's also showing full saturation on the 18z GFS forecast sounding and you can see Albany's radar is not impressive around it which means the GFS may be overestimating dynamic cooling there. I assume NAM is the same. Low level dry air killing Albany.

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This is looking more favorable, though while usually pretty accurate, the Intellicast radar seems to be thinking snow when its more sleet on the SE edge.

 

Interesting that Dendrite is still seeing light ice pellets.  Also interesting how dry it is between ALB-BGM.  That corridor was progged to get smoked, though still a long way to go.

 

Dec6b.gif

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0z ALB sounding .. sneaky warm layer around 750-790 mb. also you can see the dry air / cooler temps being advected from the NNW / NW below 800 mb.

attachicon.gifalb sounding txt 12 7 13.png

I wonder if they're even getting much in the way of nucleation with those cloud temps? That uber dry layer would explain the -RAPL obs.

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Dont you want to hope kev stays up till 11pm hearing heavy sleet while hubb dave is pounding snow, that ashburrham poster could give mpm and wxmanmitch a run as well.

 

It may be that a narrow area cashes in near RT 2. Maybe like 1-2 spot 3 on either side. Just thinking out loud. I think things seem to be progressing close to planned in SNE. That warm tongue may prolong sleet a tad.

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I wonder if they're even getting much in the way of nucleation with those cloud temps? That uber dry layer would explain the -RAPL obs.

 

Gonna need help from above with that layer under -10C for such a large vertical space. That might benefit areas more SE with deeper lift. It also will cool too.

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