Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Who is this DT fella. That was evident from just looking at the panel outputs, so he's stating the obvious. He's an excellent met for MA analysis but carries some serious mental baggage that I can't get past so avoid his analysis. He doesn't play nice in the sandbox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The sounding in Fairfax shows 30 degrees... so the 32 degree line is prob just east of I-95 at 21z. 00z its around BR or so... looks like IAD is right around 32 Its a slow march westward for the 32 degree line between 21z and 00z Do you mind running the sounding for CHO down here? I'm curious how much precip we get prior to sfc temps going over freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I'm up for the euro almost every night there is a threat Matt, we kinda know how this "can" shake out regardless of model run variability. Some definite favorable trends with precip onset and amounts. Our all snow window is probably 3 hours at best. I'm kinda feeling the odds trending for good rates at onset. I know I'm biased and all but trying to put that aside I still see a fair window of snow before pingville before mud season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 30 degrees for ice might as well be 40 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think this will be a fun storm. That's my prediction and I'm sticking with it. CAD love all the way. We usually do well with these CAD storms. I am really getting concerned about a major ice storm out here. I hope we get a few inches of snow before the changeover as that usually causes less damage to trees and power lines. The Euro would be ideal for us really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 30 degrees for ice might as well be 40 degrees I agree with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 30 degrees for ice might as well be 40 degrees I agree with this science doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I agree with thisI don't agree with that. It accretes, just not as well. Sure 25 and freezing rain is easier to accumulate, but ji and company would be p/o if they were 25 and getting ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 we need to get another snowstorm before this pattern changes. Late next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GFS is cold through Dec 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Snowing just SW of CHO on 12z GGEM at 97 on the precip map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GFS is cold through Dec 20th Yeah, it tries to pull a 1961 on us 12/15-20. Of course, this follows the rather warm, SE ridge run this morning. What a nightmare! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Snowing just SW of CHO on 12z GGEM at 97 on the precip map Snow moving into DC/IAD 16z SUN Using the precip maps, mod snow into DCA/IAD at 20z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GGEM is slower with the precip by a few hrs than the GFS it would appear, but also is colder. GFS would have DCA threatening rain by 00z while GGEM says its snowing or sleeting at that time Its looking like according to the GGEM, there is no changeover to rain per precip maps at 07z MON is light freezing rain (for us west of I-95) And it decides to do some kind of half transfer looks like late in the run to a coastal low... don't think we have seen that before down here at least. At 120, I-95 is the battle line between rain and freezing rain I would say that GGEM is a major ice storm if you are just west of I-95 and westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Let's tighten it up folks (including me). Banter less, storm talk more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Does anyone know how long it takes twisterdata to update to the most recent GFS run? I am trying to look at soundings for the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 .90 is frozen at jyo....take your pick as to which kind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Does anyone know how long it takes twisterdata to update to the most recent GFS run? I am trying to look at soundings for the 12Z run. A few hours. Kinda slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Westminster bufkit for 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Does anyone know how long it takes twisterdata to update to the most recent GFS run? I am trying to look at soundings for the 12Z run. this is for DCA but just enter in your nearest place and see them before twisterdata http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kdca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Thanks Everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 1045 H in SE SD at 72 on 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 waiting for the Euro, the silence is deafening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 1045 H in SE SD at 72 on 12z EURO 1037 H at HGR at 96. CAD entrenched to central NC (at the sfc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 CAD looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looks decent so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 USA_TMP_850mb_096.gif Seems pretty cold. Precip? Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 USA_TMP_850mb_096.gif a hair colder than 12z gfs at 96hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Seems pretty cold. Precip? Anyone? Kind of looks a bit drier at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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