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Wednesday Soaker Discussing


CT Rain

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euro also allows it to crank on the backside as well. at least on the coastal plain. some good CAA and winds ~ 50 knots within the mixed layer. we'll see how it shakes out.

 

as for the front side...the rapid deepening can help offset the southerly flow and isothermal / inverted profile to some extent. a lot of times in these deep S flow events what we'll see is winds reach some criteria - be it advisory or warning - via sustained winds along the coast. you won't get the big gusts but it just cranks with the PGF and minimal friction off the water. 

 

hopefully it holds. 

 

in the stupid-to-post-details criteria...euro has 3.5" of rain in the SW part of CT 

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Just the spatial temporal aspect for the next 4 days... We have this incredible CAA event now, then relay it blithely into a warm rain/wind event, then back to cold.  

 

I think Scott set us up for the jinx when he mentioned frigid-rain-frigid-rain winter in dark sarcasm the other day.  Well ha ha bitches!  Blame him -  

 

j/k

 

But just the degree in oscillatory nature of sensible appeals is pretty astounding.  If the low track of the NAM/Euro blend does pan out, I agree with Fork' that there could be some pretty dramatic south--coastal impacts with wind. 

 

Also, I am wondering if the flood thread is under-advertised here.  We are in rapid soil lock about off the charts in terms of how fast we are freezing the top/air exposed layers.  Then, the turn around into rain thickness', and considering this is southern ingest of higher PW air ... it just all looks like a recipe for some pretty fantastic rapid stream responders.  Ground frozen, no time to thaw it, 3 or 4 inches of rain?   good luck with that... Almost sounds like, "how to flood: steps 1 through 3"

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