Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Ride Euro Ens. I was wondering if the meso scale models would be more useful than usual since we are looking at a narrower corridor of enhanced precip near any temp contrast. I thought meso's would sniff this out better, albeit prob in another 12-24 hours I'd wait within 12-24h to use the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well the NAM does this by having that elongated front with a weak wave move north and then stalls it as new energy comes around and develops the final wave along the front. Part of the NAM overzealous amounts is due to the length of time we have such strong convergence along that front. Not to mention that insane 925m LLJ that it has working into the lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I'd wait within 12-24minutes to use the NAM.FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Not to mention that insane 925m LLJ that it has working into the lift. Yeah there is your convergence. All models have this, but the NAM is prolonging it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GFS Only a what...500 mile shift in 30 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well the NAM does this by having that elongated front with a weak wave move north and then stalls it as new energy comes around and develops the final wave along the front. Part of the NAM overzealous amounts is due to the length of time we have such strong convergence along that front. I still think we see consolidation to one low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GFS Only a what...500 mile shift in 30 hrs? But it's been consistent, at being wrong with this. LOL. Schooled by the other globals with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I still think we see consolidation to one low. Yea I see something like the euro ensembles. Kind of a strung out look and then consolidating near and north of our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I'm not saying this setup is correct, just saying why it shows this. Even the euro would argue spot 3" plus IMO. Exactly, the 13km Euro has the stripe a little east of the NAM but max QPF is about half. So 3" is about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Yea I see something like the euro ensembles. Kind of a strung out look and then consolidating near and north of our latitude. Yeah, it's just difficult to have to distinct low pressures. Atmosphere seeking equilibrium and models have a difficult time interpreting it. I'm more excited about this storm than I am about today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Does the GFS have the damaging wind event that the Euro and Nam have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Does the GFS have the damaging wind event that the Euro and Nam have? Pretty strong winds just east of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Pretty strong winds just east of you.Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Nice! This thing will have an inversion though...it's dragging a ton of warmth and dews north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2013 Author Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro Ens mean is around 2.5" for BDL - juicier than the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro Ens mean is around 2.5" for BDL - juicier than the op run. The SOS signal wants to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 This thing will have an inversion though...it's dragging a ton of warmth and dews north.Bigger story with this will be the winds than the rain. Many Folks facing turkey day powerless is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 models today have trend east with the storm track . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2013 Author Share Posted November 24, 2013 Bigger story with this will be the winds than the rain. Many Folks facing turkey day powerless is crazy Chill with the hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Chill with the hype.How is that hype? It's a discussion about wx. Relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 This thing will have an inversion though...it's dragging a ton of warmth and dews north.Bigger story with this will be the winds than the rain. Many Folks facing turkey day powerless is crazy Do you really think "many folks" will be without power? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Bigger story with this will be the winds than the rain. Many Folks facing turkey day powerless is crazy If this shifts back west about 50 miles it would put strong winds over those towns in CT that apparently lose power easily. (The towns near you with 70-75% out) so i could see that being the case. Also its red flag that forky is all gung go, as he has a bit of a wind fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Nams winds at the surface are less than today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Do you really think "many folks" will be without power?If the nam and euro and GFS are correct then yes. Gusts over 50 out of the SE always causes pretty big issues to the region . If the east trend should continue then no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 If this shifts back west about 50 miles it would put strong winds over those towns in CT that apparently lose power easily. (The towns near you with 70-75% out)Conflict of interest for Kevin. Wishcast it east or west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 If the nam and euro and GFS are correct then yes. Gusts over 50 out of the SE always causes pretty big issues to the region . If the east trend should continue then no The inversion will not be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2013 Author Share Posted November 24, 2013 Nams winds at the surface are less than today. Certainly not for eastern and southeastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Certainly not for eastern and southeastern areas.Gusts were near and over 50 today so maybe similar then. That is if the Nam pans out. Still feel this is trending east so the worst winds are CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I wouldn't rule out the possibility of some convection across eastern areas either which could enhance wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2013 Author Share Posted November 24, 2013 Gusts were near and over 50 today so maybe similar then. That is if the Nam pans out. Still feel this is trending east so the worst winds are CC Just comparing NAM forecast winds for today's event to NAM forecast winds for Wednesday's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.