weathafella Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The models are showing mainly a huge slug of moisture with a low that moves through dragging water laden air out ahead. It doesn't seem as complicated as people are making it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 As far as I'm concerned with the 2nd low along the front...it really doesn't do anything except for maybe Upstate NY and some enhanced mositure for upslope snowfall in the northern mountains. For 99% of the posters here, it is basically an irrelevant feature outside of maybe some flurries or very brief light snow at the end. If it somehow trended wayyyy deeper, then it might provide a period of steady snow enough to get some accumulation, but there is currently no guidance that supports such an outcome right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 You say tomato, Bob says Tommatto Congrats on 2-3" of rain and heavy tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 haha! didn't know that. thought it was split down the middle. I live in the state and didn't know that...haha. Good trivia. I just know you go to one side and see "Welcome to NH" and you drive to the other side and the sign says "Welcome to VT" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 haha! didn't know that. thought it was split down the middle. That's why we (and BOX) have the river products and not BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The second "wave" is just a manifestation of the partially unphased southern shortwave. There is no follow up low on the NAM, for example, which is the most phased of the guidance. I'm not sure if stringing out the pressure falls with two low pressure centers is good for anybody, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Glad I was able to liven up the board discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Glad I was able to liven up the board discussion no worries. It's also a little different for you in Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro is more strung out and less phased than 00z.Definitely but at least so far the sensible impact even with the hint of that appendage is nil.Even if it becomes modestly more pronounced in later guidance it's way too warm for most anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 No surprise on the Euro, trending east to the pretty climo path east of the spines. No shock PF ends with a net gain, winds are meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Definitely but at least so far the sensible impact even with the hint of that appendage is nil. sure, it matters further northwest though lol. More strung out and weaker = less precip being thrown back into the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 No surprise on the Euro, trending east to the pretty climo path east of the spines. No shock PF ends with a net gain, winds are meh. If that goes across even ern MA, winds are not meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 If that goes across even ern MA, winds are not meh.Strung out unphased Euro is not the wind machine the NAM or 0 Z Euro was, congrats gulls on Gull Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Strung out unphased Euro is not the wind machine the NAM or 0 Z Euro was, congrats gulls on Gull Island You don't need a wound up low to get a strong LLJ. Those are a function of temp gradients. Many an inside runner had a front moving through with 50kt gusts ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 We have to be super careful with the NSA watching us hobbyists. Glad we were able to sniff out the heavy squalls last night days before the four horseman , no mention of that from Eagle eye. Note the timestamp...it had a mild windex look, but it wasn't classic. Pretty intense PVA with and just behind the 2nd front...could be a bit windexy. Doesn't look classic, but definitely probably lots of flurries and the usual western slope snow showers. It gets pretty unstable in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Glad I was able to liven up the board discussionWe have to be super careful with the NSA watching us hobbyists. Glad we were able to sniff out the heavy squalls last night days before the four horseman , no mention of that from Eagle eye. C'mon man. What is going on in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 We have to be super careful with the NSA watching us hobbyists. Glad we were able to sniff out the heavy squalls last night days before the four horseman , no mention of that from Eagle eye. This was mentioned by almost everyone. Why are you doing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Note the timestamp...it had a mild windex look, but it wasn't classic. This is why moving away from the old interpretation of WINDEX is being pushed. I mean with all the levels we have available now it's just too coarse to resolve the events on the edge. BTV is pushing to get their snow squall parameter up on the SPC mesoanalysis site in the future, which should help in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Ya ginxy, why oh why are u doing this, who the f cares where the low..i mean squalls track lol Lets see if euro ens have the crazy qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 This is why moving away from the old interpretation of WINDEX is being pushed. I mean with all the levels we have available now it's just too coarse to resolve the events on the edge. BTV is pushing to get their snow squall parameter up on the SPC mesoanalysis site in the future, which should help in the near term. They did revise the WINDEX parameters a bit maybe 8-10 years back? The original ones from the early 1990s were based on the old NGM model. But yeah, they could probably do another form of revision now with even more mesoscale data versus even 10 years ago. Yesterday would have been better if we had better low level moisture (prob much more defined lines of squalls), but the ML lapse rates were good enough to still produce some scattered pockets of heavier snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 We have to be super careful with the NSA watching us hobbyists. Glad we were able to sniff out the heavy squalls last night days before the four horseman , no mention of that from Eagle eye. Keep trolling away Steve. I mentioned 2-3 days ago about the "wintry appeal" to yesterday/today. I'm sure you have the brains to go seek those posts out for yourself. I pointed out that post since it was in the face of 4 others saying otherwise on what a model showed. I'm not surpsised you took offense to my post since you have a history of it. So you agree with Kevin/Dryslots interpretation of the Euro as opposed to Will/Brian/Phil/Scotts? I'm sorry but I'll choose the latter any day and every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 We have to be super careful with the NSA watching us hobbyists. Glad we were able to sniff out the heavy squalls last night days before the four horseman , no mention of that from Eagle eye. Yeah, Well, To a few folks surprise on here apparently, Some of us are not as dumb as we may appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 They did revise the WINDEX parameters a bit maybe 8-10 years back? The original ones from the early 1990s were based on the old NGM model. But yeah, they could probably do another form of revision now with even more mesoscale data versus even 10 years ago. Yesterday would have been better if we had better low level moisture (prob much more defined lines of squalls), but the ML lapse rates were good enough to still produce some scattered pockets of heavier snow showers. I think we can do a fairly good job of picking out the potential events. It's usually fronts coming down from the NW with good PVA accompanying it as a "base" line so to speak. The other details can be inferred from soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro ensembles still look to furnace a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I think we can do a fairly good job of picking out the potential events. It's usually fronts coming down from the NW with good PVA accompanying it as a "base" line so to speak. The other details can be inferred from soundings. Let's be honest though. The 10-15 Gfs can sniff out events pretty well too to the point that we know something would happen this weekend and around thanksgiving as far back as 10 days ago. Way too much bickering this year. Who cares who's first....this is turning from a hobbyists discussion board largely supported by hobbyists into something else. At least that's how it appears this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Let's be honest though. The 10-15 Gfs can sniff out events pretty well too to the point that we know something would happen this weekend and around thanksgiving as far back as 10 days ago. Way too much bickering this year. Who cares who's first....this is turning from a hobbyists discussion board largely supported by hobbyists into something else. At least that's how it appears this winter. There was a lot more weenieism surroundng this storm than usual...especially given both the time of year and the lead time. I think a lot of it is people want to jump into winter after pretty much no interesting weather for 8 months. We had a pretty dull summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Let's be honest though. The 10-15 Gfs can sniff out events pretty well too to the point that we know something would happen this weekend and around thanksgiving as far back as 10 days ago. Way too much bickering this year. Who cares who's first....this is turning from a hobbyists discussion board largely supported by hobbyists into something else. At least that's how it appears this winter. I think you misunderstood me. This is in reference to the squalls last night...I wasn't clear. I meant that we don't have to use the old WINDEX check list...you can recognize certain synoptic setups that may cause them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Let's be honest though. The 10-15 Gfs can sniff out events pretty well too to the point that we know something would happen this weekend and around thanksgiving as far back as 10 days ago. Way too much bickering this year. Who cares who's first....this is turning from a hobbyists discussion board largely supported by hobbyists into something else. At least that's how it appears this winter. Overreaction. It's just the usual met response to weenie posts. Let's not create a faux met vs hobbyist war. We've never wanted a met only forum, but at the same time we can't let weenieology run rampant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro ensembles still look to furnace a lot of us. How are they in relation to the Operational? What does it show for YYZ? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 There was a lot more weenieism surroundng this storm than usual...especially given both the time of year and the lead time. I think a lot of it is people want to jump into winter after pretty much no interesting weather for 8 months. We had a pretty dull summer.Same thing, different year. Everyone is salivating for that first storm that pops up at d10. A few runs show snow and then it's time to emotionally lock in. This time of year is always like NFL preseason...lots of fumbles, missed blocks, and shanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.