Wednesday Soaker Discussing

[Ginx snewx]

So 60 mph on CC, will be neat to see two 60 mph reports in a week, 1 NW 1 SE

[CoastalWx]

So 60 mph on CC, will be neat to see two 60 mph reports in a week, 1 NW 1 SE

 

Sometimes that happens on the same day...lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

So 60 mph on CC, will be neat to see two 60 mph reports in a week, 1 NW 1 SE

And typically SE winds cause far more tree damage due to tree lean and not the normal w direction

[dryslot]

And typically SE winds cause far more tree damage due to tree lean and not the normal w direction

 

See that here a lot with SSE winds here as well, Trees see a lot of WNW winds for the most part

[Ginx snewx]

And typically SE winds cause far more tree damage due to tree lean and not the normal w direction

Wet ground too but really without leaves this is like today isolated at best.

[Damage In Tolland]

Wet ground too but really without leaves this is like today isolated at best.

Its usually the Spruce and White Pines that cause the damage this time of year. Those tall spruces love to come down

[Ginx snewx]

Dec 24 1994 , now that was a true screaming sou'easter, winds to 90 , region wide power issues. This is a strong wind storm but pretty standard fare.

[powderfreak]

BTV has a good discussion on the system... I see they are mentioning icing and I was wondering about that.  A lot of the models have 2-m temps not getting above 34-35F for most of this area, and a good chunk of the heavy rain falls at 32-34F.  If the track goes east of us, it keeps winds more N/NE and could help keep the low level cold in place.  BTV also mentions power outages...channeling their inner Blizz.

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 209 PM EST SUNDAY...INALLY SOME CONSENSUS IN ALL MAJOR
MODELS WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE LATECOMER TO THE PARTY FOR THIS
MID WEEK...HOLIDAY TRAVEL STORM.

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION TOUCHES UPON ALOT OF THE EVOLVING SYSTEM
BUT THE CURRENT WED FCST IS BASED ON A GFS/ECMWF/NAM TRACK OF
NYC-ORH-CON. CNDN GEM IS MORE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VLY BUT ERRING TO A
SLIGHTLY COLDER...MORE PROBLEMATIC SOLUTION.

IN GENERAL...A SNOW/MIXED START WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO
MIXED/RAIN IN VT AND CHMPL VLY NY WITH SOME POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOW AND A FLASH FREEZE MARCHING FROM WEST TO EAST AFT SFC LOW
PASSAGE WED EVE/WED NGT. ADRNDKS/ST LWRNC VLY IN THE POTENTIAL
SWEET-SPOT FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG WITH SOME MIXING.

QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...LIGHTER SIDE ACRS
ST LWRNC VLY WHERE IT WILL STAY COLDEST. WPC WINTER WX GRAPHIC
PLACES 6-12 INCHES IN ADRNDKS/ST LWRNC VLY AND QUITE POSSIBLE. LLVL
NNE JET ACRS ST LWRNV VLY WILL ADD PROBLEMS WITH CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING SNOW.

LLVL TEMP PROFILES AND SHARP GRADIENT LEADS TO CONCERNS OF ICING IN
INTERIOR VT AND CT RVR VLY DUE TO STG INVERSIONS. IN ADDITION...A
NNE LLVL FLOW IN ST LWRNC VLY THAT MAY ADVECT LLVL COLD AIR TOWARD
NRN CHAMPL VLY FOR A WINTRY MIX.

AGAIN...LATE WED/WED NGT AS SFC LOW DEPARTS STG CAA AND WRAPARD PCPN
CHANGING TO SNOW AND FALLING TMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FLASH
FREEZE SITUATION ON ROADS...TREES AND UTILITY LINES AND WITH NNW
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KTS PSBLY BLOWING SNOW AND POWER OUTAGES.

THANKSGIVING...BLUSTERY AND LEFTOVER MTN SNOW SHOWERS BUT COLD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

[eyewall]

Dec 24 1994 , now that was a true screaming sou'easter, winds to 90 , region wide power issues. This is a strong wind storm but pretty standard fare.

 

That storm was essentially sub-tropical.

[CoastalWx]

That storm was essentially sub-tropical.

 

Agree.

[CT Rain]

Dec 24 1994 , now that was a true screaming sou'easter, winds to 90 , region wide power issues. This is a strong wind storm but pretty standard fare.

 

I remembered it as a noreaster with storm stalled to the south. 

[weathafella]

The original blizzard makes an appearance. Wonder if I can score some flakes being well west longitude wise...

[dryslot]

White Pines, Birch and Poplars are the weak link trees

[CoastalWx]

I remembered it as a noreaster with storm stalled to the south. 

 

It was..lol. That was a beast.

[Damage In Tolland]

That guy Hanrahan has 44 for a high on Wednesday. What are we missing?

[ORH_wxman]

I remembered it as a noreaster with storm stalled to the south. 

 

 

Yeah that was a beast storm.

[CoastalWx]

That storm had no snow anywhere either in New England..lol. But it was a powerhouse. I remember watching those bands of rain spiral in from CC.

[CT Rain]

That guy Hanrahan has 44 for a high on Wednesday. What are we missing?

 

Euro Ens mean 2M max temp on Wednesday afternoon is 55F. Nice troll, though!

[ORH_wxman]

That storm had no snow anywhere either in New England..lol. But it was a powerhouse. I remember watching those bands of rain spiral in from CC.

 

 

Look at the temps over the CONUS...that looks more like late April  versus December.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro Ens mean 2M max temp on Wednesday afternoon is near 60. Nice troll, though!

Huh? That's what I was confused on. There's been 2m maps posted of 50's and 60's and talk of furnace ens members and a track up the Hudson River and then on air we see a cold rain and 44

[CT Rain]

Huh? That's what I was confused on. There's been 2m maps posted of 50's and 60's and talk of furnace ens members and a track up the Hudson River and then on air we see a cold rain and 44

 

I have 50 for HVN and 44 for BDL. If the front winds up over CT it's a chilly/wet day. Could certainly wind up near 60 but not going to go crazy about climo yet.

[Damage In Tolland]

I have 50 for HVN and 44 for BDL. If the front winds up over CT it's a chilly/wet day. Could certainly wind up near 60 but not going to go crazy about climo yet.

Well that tells me you think it's still gonna trend east. For the record I hope it cuts way west for big winds , though I still think CC

[hurricaneman]

That storm was essentially sub-tropical.

Could even argue that at one point it may have been a hurricane 250 miles south of Cape Cod but yep at landfall it was definitely Sub-Tropical with gusts to 100mph in some places so in no way is this possible storm going to be anything like that but it could be a nasty wind storm still

[CoastalWx]

Look at the temps over the CONUS...that looks more like late April  versus December.

 

 

I heard NHC was reviewing that for tropical characteristics. It was warm core for a little while. Just a bizarre storm, but was a wind bag even in the interior of ern MA.

[N. OF PIKE]

BTV has a good discussion on the system... I see they are mentioning icing and I was wondering about that. A lot of the models have 2-m temps not getting above 34-35F for most of this area, and a good chunk of the heavy rain falls at 32-34F. If the track goes east of us, it keeps winds more N/NE and could help keep the low level cold in place. BTV also mentions power outages...channeling their inner Blizz.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 209 PM EST SUNDAY...INALLY SOME CONSENSUS IN ALL MAJOR

MODELS WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE LATECOMER TO THE PARTY FOR THIS

MID WEEK...HOLIDAY TRAVEL STORM.

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION TOUCHES UPON ALOT OF THE EVOLVING SYSTEM

BUT THE CURRENT WED FCST IS BASED ON A GFS/ECMWF/NAM TRACK OF

NYC-ORH-CON. CNDN GEM IS MORE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VLY BUT ERRING TO A

SLIGHTLY COLDER...MORE PROBLEMATIC SOLUTION.

IN GENERAL...A SNOW/MIXED START WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO

MIXED/RAIN IN VT AND CHMPL VLY NY WITH SOME POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING

SNOW AND A FLASH FREEZE MARCHING FROM WEST TO EAST AFT SFC LOW

PASSAGE WED EVE/WED NGT. ADRNDKS/ST LWRNC VLY IN THE POTENTIAL

SWEET-SPOT FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG WITH SOME MIXING.

QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...LIGHTER SIDE ACRS

ST LWRNC VLY WHERE IT WILL STAY COLDEST. WPC WINTER WX GRAPHIC

PLACES 6-12 INCHES IN ADRNDKS/ST LWRNC VLY AND QUITE POSSIBLE. LLVL

NNE JET ACRS ST LWRNV VLY WILL ADD PROBLEMS WITH CONSIDERABLE

BLOWING SNOW.

LLVL TEMP PROFILES AND SHARP GRADIENT LEADS TO CONCERNS OF ICING IN

INTERIOR VT AND CT RVR VLY DUE TO STG INVERSIONS. IN ADDITION...A

NNE LLVL FLOW IN ST LWRNC VLY THAT MAY ADVECT LLVL COLD AIR TOWARD

NRN CHAMPL VLY FOR A WINTRY MIX.

AGAIN...LATE WED/WED NGT AS SFC LOW DEPARTS STG CAA AND WRAPARD PCPN

CHANGING TO SNOW AND FALLING TMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FLASH

FREEZE SITUATION ON ROADS...TREES AND UTILITY LINES AND WITH NNW

WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KTS PSBLY BLOWING SNOW AND POWER OUTAGES.

THANKSGIVING...BLUSTERY AND LEFTOVER MTN SNOW SHOWERS BUT COLD

THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

I really hope i see a good frozen event up there, prob is im takin a dartmouth coach bus from bos to Lebanon w my friends , then his parents are pickin us up at 4pm. Roads nw of Lebanon could be "interesting" by 4-5pm.

[N. OF PIKE]

Interesting comment from met in Pa thread wrt to northern stream disturbance being in an area that is notorious for poor sampling. I guess it means models may bounce from C.C to Montreal even at this stage.

There is still a huge amount of uncertainty with this system, as expressed looking at the 18z GFS ensembles (below, which are typically under dispersive). The spread in primary low tracks range from Cape Cod, MA to Montreal, Canada. Moreover, the shortwave digging into the great lakes by 60-72 hours is originating from a large region of shear vorticity which is often very poorly modeled when the feature is strung out over a longwave ridge. Expect a few more substantial shifts before the models lock on to an optimal solution.

[CoastalWx]

I don't think we'll see much of a bounce. Track is close to be narrowed down. Maybe it goes from BDL to TAN or something, but I would be surprised at a big bounce.

[Ginx snewx]

That storm was essentially sub-tropical.

reanalysis might change it to a tropical system which a lot of us have claimed for years

[CT Rain]

The RPM - which the weenies know and love - has all the precip out of here by Wednesday morning. Very fast arrival. 

[Ginx snewx]

FYI SE winds in 94,The original low passed along the south shore of Long Island, and made landfall near New York City on December 24.Subsequently, it moved over southeastern New York State