CT Rain Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 NAM is very impressive with wind threat east of the low and rain/flooding threat along and west of the front that sets up. Many signals pointing to excessive rainfall - we'll see if this winds up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 the euro low track looks similar to the nam. if that happens coastal areas could see TS conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 12z NAM Bufkit shows 50-55kt winds on top of mixed layer for ISP and BDR east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 the euro low track looks similar to the nam. if that happens coastal areas could see TS conditions euro winds, fwiw...are relatively similar. 925 peaks >75 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 euro also allows it to crank on the backside as well. at least on the coastal plain. some good CAA and winds ~ 50 knots within the mixed layer. we'll see how it shakes out. as for the front side...the rapid deepening can help offset the southerly flow and isothermal / inverted profile to some extent. a lot of times in these deep S flow events what we'll see is winds reach some criteria - be it advisory or warning - via sustained winds along the coast. you won't get the big gusts but it just cranks with the PGF and minimal friction off the water. hopefully it holds. in the stupid-to-post-details criteria...euro has 3.5" of rain in the SW part of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 GGEM tracks the low right thru ENY state and down to 973mb over QUE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 If we weren't dealing with "drought" conditions flooding would be a major concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Just the spatial temporal aspect for the next 4 days... We have this incredible CAA event now, then relay it blithely into a warm rain/wind event, then back to cold. I think Scott set us up for the jinx when he mentioned frigid-rain-frigid-rain winter in dark sarcasm the other day. Well ha ha bitches! Blame him - j/k But just the degree in oscillatory nature of sensible appeals is pretty astounding. If the low track of the NAM/Euro blend does pan out, I agree with Fork' that there could be some pretty dramatic south--coastal impacts with wind. Also, I am wondering if the flood thread is under-advertised here. We are in rapid soil lock about off the charts in terms of how fast we are freezing the top/air exposed layers. Then, the turn around into rain thickness', and considering this is southern ingest of higher PW air ... it just all looks like a recipe for some pretty fantastic rapid stream responders. Ground frozen, no time to thaw it, 3 or 4 inches of rain? good luck with that... Almost sounds like, "how to flood: steps 1 through 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 still might be with frozen ground If we weren't dealing with "drought" conditions flooding would be a major concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 still might be with frozen ground Wouldn't that really depend on how much of the ground (in terms of depth) is frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Is this the run euro takes this up hudson valley to lake champlain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro is a tick east, but same idea. Maybe NNE can get some brief frozen on the front end, but it's dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 And so begins the Euro coming east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro with 2+ qpf for all of sne and 2.5+ for BOS to BDL to just east of NYC south and east to about the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 And so begins the Euro coming east Warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 WarmOf course and it will be. Still think it ends up over CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Of course and it will be. Still think it ends up over CC It's may tick east, I doubt CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 And so begins the Euro coming east How much does it show for YYZ? In total. I believe it showed about 1-3" of snow. Eastern Ontario gets a good dumping, as usual -_- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro is quite cold Thursday and Friday in the aftermath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 How much does it show for YYZ? In total. I believe it showed about 1-3" of snow. Eastern Ontario gets a good dumping, as usual -_- About 0.15-0.20" QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 About 0.15-0.20" QPF? Thanks! Equates to about 1.5-2" then. Not bad i guess, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Probably has been discussed but there is going to be ton of rain just E of that front, wherever it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 euro is still pretty far west...over the CT river in VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 is euro all rain for slk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 These CRV tracks are much more feasible than the ORH track.....cold see that, or even HRV, but looks like we are honing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Wants to clip us with the follow up sw along the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 It's may tick east, I doubt CC. I could see it pinching off over se MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro is a tick east, but same idea. Maybe NNE can get some brief frozen on the front end, but it's dicey.soil temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I could see it pinching off over se MA. Did you bring your snow pants out from under the bed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 soil temp? 37F and falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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