Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 actually, the snow pack in Canada is probably what made it as cold as it was and more so than proggs had it Oh I don't doubt... Snow pack preceded the recent -EPO dump and when that cold moved bodily through the Yukon and settled into S-central Canada, it was doing so amid some of the lowest sun angles of the year, and a snow pack combined == very limited moderation ability. It was a 101 lesson in how/why cryosphere is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Well said tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Next weeks cold shot looks even colder than this current one FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 I was just thinking that earlier today... I remember a cold snap in mid Novie ended up in a sleet/snow affair N of the Pike circa the 19th, 1995. For us at UML in the Merrimack Valley, it would mean persistent snow pack until the end of January mega-thaw. Thing is, I don't believe we were looking at a warm recovery pattern that year like we are observing in the runs now. We'll see how it goes, but it appears it turns more non-recovery cold-like post the 20th to me. I have been noticing that last several cycles of the operational, a cold continent evolves N of about 40N by the 22nd+, the kind where it's not like these as of late ... invasions followed by a roll-out warm-ups. There is more of a permanent looking cold thickness wall setting up from the NP to SE Canda or even in here by T-day. Backed by yet another downward EPO burst leading the way beginning ~ 5 or 6 days from now. And, the PNA may be relaxing it's negative posture by then, which would only make the EPO that much more effectual in loading cold into middle N/A latitudes. We'll see how the AO goes; some additional spread was re-introduced into the runs last night, just when we had better agreement. Oy vay! But as EPO intrusions have proven, the AO ain't the whole story. Things looking good from where I sit for winter weather enthusiasm, given just a little bit of patients. Awesome read thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 24.5F here but that may be it with the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Models backed off a bit on the cool shot next week, but really have a sweet looking pattern after day 13 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Sounds like a shot for next week WARM FRONTALCLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFICATION OF ASECONDARY WAVE OFF THE DELMARVA AND/OR OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND POSES A BRIEF THREAT FOR MIXED P-TYPES...MAINLY NORTH OFTHE MASON-DIXON LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Sounds like a shot for next week WARM FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFICATION OF A SECONDARY WAVE OFF THE DELMARVA AND/OR OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND POSES A BRIEF THREAT FOR MIXED P-TYPES...MAINLY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. Doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 next week's cold shot relaxed on the models last night. Still looking more like a nina-ish pattwern in 11-15 day...winter storm thanksgiving week? midwest to new england? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Next week looks like 30-35 for highs for a few days post fropa. Doesn't seem much warmer than what was progged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 next week's cold shot relaxed on the models last night. Still looking more like a nina-ish pattwern in 11-15 day...winter storm thanksgiving week? midwest to new england? I was commenting on this in the MA subforum. Pattern looks pretty good for a storm of some kind in the Nov 24-29 period. Obviously higher latitudes are going to be favored at this time of year, but I could foresee a situation that would give my region some early snow. 6z GEFS are pretty bold on the AO and NAO going in the tank around this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Next week looks like 30-35 for highs for a few days post fropa. Doesn't seem much warmer than what was progged The severity of the cold shot is what i was referencing, and it is much more noteworthy for the midwest/south which granted you do not care about it...It moves through very quickly, but the good news is there is much less of a gap between the next wave versus what we have upcoming through monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2013 Author Share Posted November 14, 2013 Euro ensembles are going more gradient in the long range the week of Thanskgiving...and its not as cold as 12z was yesterday. Still nice looking though and below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Next weeks cold shot looks even colder than this current one FTW I wouldn't go that far, but it looks on par with this last shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 I wouldn't go that far, but it looks on par with this last shot. yes maybe a degree or two warmer at 850 per Ens data but way below normal. Also real early but as several have alluded to above the setup for Tday week is intriguing this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 yes maybe a degree or two warmer at 850 per Ens data but way below normal. Also real early but as several have alluded to above the setup for Tday week is intriguing this far out. Yes, PWM ran -13 yesterday, and that was pretty much for the high and low. Definitely well below normal, which is why I said on par with this shot. Colder than this would put PWM around freezing, the record low max yesterday was 33, so I'm not sure I would be thinking record breaker coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 A white thanksgiving would be awesome, but I think things have to work our just right. However a favorable pattern seems to be in the works for after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 The winds are howling out there this morning. Up to 25mph at 8'. At tree level, it's really very strong. My ZFP is calling for 10-15, and my p/c 9-11. Fail on both counts. 39.5/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Statistical chance of a white thanksgiving is highest possible this year thanks to the calendar. It was lowest possible last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2013 Author Share Posted November 14, 2013 Statistical chance of a white thanksgiving is highest possible this year thanks to the calendar. It was lowest possible last year. 1989 was impressive being on the 23rd. The last White Thanksgiving in BOS was 2002 which was 11/28 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Statistical chance of a white thanksgiving is highest possible this year thanks to the calendar. It was lowest possible last year. Yup, that would be a lot of fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Yes, PWM ran -13 yesterday, and that was pretty much for the high and low. Definitely well below normal, which is why I said on par with this shot. Colder than this would put PWM around freezing, the record low max yesterday was 33, so I'm not sure I would be thinking record breaker coming up. Wow ORH was a -15 yesterday. When was the last time we had that big of a departure? Two double digit negative departures in Novie, -2.4F overall. That will change for the worse soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2013 Author Share Posted November 14, 2013 Wow ORH was a -15 yesterday. When was the last time we had that big of a departure? Two double digit negative departures in Novie, -2.4F overall. That will change for the worse soon. May 25th was a -16 departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 May 25th was a -16 departure. 9/17 actually pulled off a -11, but before that you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 9/17 actually pulled off a -11, but before that you're right. ORH also had a -11 earlier this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2013 Author Share Posted November 14, 2013 ORH also had a -11 earlier this month Well they've had several negative double digit departures...in addition to the November and September days, they also had one in July and one in June...but none as big as -15 since the May 25th -16 departure. The 26th of May had a -14 departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Well they've had several negative double digit departures...in addition to the November and September days, they also had one in July and one in June...but none as big as -15 since the May 25th -16 departure. The 26th of May had a -14 departure. Maybe more impressive are the -14, -15, -16, and -17 departures yesterday on the high temps for BOS, BDL, PVD and ORH respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 12Z op GFS was run from his Ji's basement...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 12Z op GFS was run from his Ji's basement...lol NNE Mid winter up there already http://johnsnhweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 12Z op GFS was run from his Ji's basement...lol I loved that 312 hour la-la panel. Unfortunately, NCEP failed to transmit (apparently) the intervals leading, so missed out on how that evolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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