Tropopause_Fold Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 looks like atlantic ridging prevents much of it from moving east good - set us up for multiple snow chcs with best baroclinic axis nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 looks like atlantic ridging prevents much of it from moving east Yeah a bit of a SE ridge, but its definitely still below normal in the northeast. The heart of the cold is over the lakes/N plains. IT is likely one of those patterns where the cold gets there first then oozes down over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 good - set us up for multiple snow chcs with best baroclinic axis nearbyYeah seriously. Hit me with the motherload of cold in January with snowpack. No thanks to that in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Yeah a bit of a SE ridge, but its definitely still below normal in the northeast. The heart of the cold is over the lakes/N plains. IT is likely one of those patterns where the cold gets there first then oozes down over the top. Yeah and I'd rather have the core of the cold west... keeps the storm track nearby. Favorable for SWFEs/Miller Bs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 good - set us up for multiple snow chcs with best baroclinic axis nearbylooks like a cutter pattern to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 looks like atlantic ridging prevents much of it from moving east Yeah, but if I'm correct, that gives us our best chances for storms and snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Yeah with trough axis to our west, storm track might stay to our west leading us to rain and cold air bleeds in behind the storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Yeah seriously. Hit me with the motherload of cold in January with snowpack. No thanks to that in November. Yeah unsure what he was getting at other than the usual trolling. With a -NAo in place it's not a cutter pattern. Nice to see 4 or 5 mets correct him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 Yeah unsure what he was getting at other than the usual trolling. With a -NAo in place it's not a cutter pattern. Nice to see 4 or 5 mets correct him I don't think anybody refuted that cutters couldn't happen. There's still a hint of SE ridging which means cutters are always a threat. But the strongly -EPO means that some of them run into a brick wall and become SWFEs or redevelopers for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I don't think anybody refuted that cutters couldn't happen. There's still a hint of SE ridging which means cutters are always a threat. But the strongly -EPO means that some of them run into a brick wall and become SWFEs or redevelopers for New England.i'd rather see negative height anomalies over newfoundland than the positive anomalies shown on the ens mean. at least for anything interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I don't think anybody refuted that cutters couldn't happen. There's still a hint of SE ridging which means cutters are always a threat. But the strongly -EPO means that some of them run into a brick wall and become SWFEs or redevelopers for New England. I think others were refuting it wasn't a cutter pattern like he proclaimed. Maybe in South Jersey where that poster it located it wouldn't be very good for winter lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I don't think anybody refuted that cutters couldn't happen. There's still a hint of SE ridging which means cutters are always a threat. But the strongly -EPO means that some of them run into a brick wall and become SWFEs or redevelopers for New England. Cape Cod's greatest snowstorm was originially an APPS runner which turned coastal as it redeveloped offshore of the Delmarva peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Unless we have a strong -AO in place, most winters aren't favorable for the Mid Atlantic states in terms of high snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 Cape Cod's greatest snowstorm was originially an APPS runner which turned coastal as it redeveloped offshore of the Delmarva peninsula. I assume you are talking Jan 2005? That was not an Apps runner...it was a potent clipper diving in from the Great Lakes that redeveloped as a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 i'd rather see negative height anomalies over newfoundland than the positive anomalies shown on the ens mean. at least for anything interesting Meh... I think you're a little picky. The pattern looks pretty good IMO. Not going to search for a 50/50 low on a D12 ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Well I know this is sort of weenie-ish to do....but it wouldn't be a stretch to have a cutter or say NNE type SWFE and then the cold air seeps east to perhaps open the door up for something to develop near the coast. I could envision that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Yeah and I'd rather have the core of the cold west... keeps the storm track nearby. Favorable for SWFEs/Miller Bs? Man you guys are sounding like us western New Englanders, lol. Keep the cold and baroclinic zone as far west as possible without cutters. Looks good for some coastal plain trackers or right along the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Great winter for ski areas that make a ton of snow (Sunday River is buttering up south ridge right now) etc. Just a fun winter sports season incoming! Hopefully a great winter for the places that get natural snowfall as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 My reaction to watching the euro ensembles was one of excitement for what they were showing developing by around the 25th. With that being said, I don't disagree with what forky is saying. I think it is a pattern that would probably have a cutter or 2 INITIALLY...The ridge is off the west coast and to the east it is more of a north atlantic ridge versus greenland based. But at day 12 with that look and that cold air dumping into Canada via -EPO, I would never count out New England even if I think the storm track is favored a bit west. Moreover, I'd sign up for that pattern developing on November 25th any year. Hope it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 My reaction to watching the euro ensembles was one of excitement for what they were showing developing by around the 25th. With that being said, I don't disagree with what forky is saying. I think it is a pattern that would probably have a cutter or 2 INITIALLY...The ridge is off the west coast and to the east it is more of a north atlantic ridge versus greenland based. But at day 12 with that look and that cold air dumping into Canada via -EPO, I would never count out New England even if I think the storm track is favored a bit west. Moreover, I'd sign up for that pattern developing on November 25th any year. Hope it's right I'm starting to think at least the beginning of December could be favorable for wintry wx. Seems like indices like tropical forcing etc are trying to help out the H5 pattern in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I'm starting to think at least the beginning of December could be favorable for wintry wx. Seems like indices like tropical forcing etc are trying to help out the H5 pattern in the Pacific. Strongly agree with you Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Glad to see you mets coming around. Welcome aboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I would love to go belly to belly. I'm hoping an early start can help. I think the biggest question is January. If that comes in cold we're going belly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Glad to see you mets coming around. Welcome aboard Yeah it's nice to have the data actually supporting a favorable pattern in the future, rather than a hope and a prayer. Bring it on, winters rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Glad to see you mets coming around. Welcome aboard Yeah it's nice to have the data actually supporting a favorable pattern in the future, rather than a hope and a prayer. Bring it on, winters rolling in. What are you talking about? Why are some of our less conventional ideas less valid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 What are you talking about? Why are some of our less conventional ideas less valid?The squirrels lie Jerry. The squirrels lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 The squirrels lie Jerry. The squirrels lie And the gypsy cried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 At around this time last year I was in the beginning stages of accumulating a bounty of free meals on weathafella's dime. I have none of those feelings about this year. I think we're in for an old fashioned winter. Todays mini-event only goes to show what this pattern is able to potentially deliver in terms of cold with massive November departures. Sure we may not have some of the indicators in place that would lead to prolonged stable weather patterns but who cares? As long as we get threats I'll take a week of one pattern and a week of another. It all works for me in the end. Transient may be one of the keywords for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 What are you talking about? Why are some of our less conventional ideas less valid?Actually I used conventional means to come to my conclusion a couple of weeks ago but unless you have a tag PF is snarky about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 What are you talking about? Why are some of our less conventional ideas less valid? Sorry that's not what I meant Jerry...I'm not sure what the less conventional ways you are talking about includes, but the just was more that it's nice to see a good consensus of model data that shows good things ahead for winter lovers...if that makes sense. I'm all for squirrels and that stuff, but it's nice having the data back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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