TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 All I ask for is some legit snow threats as we move into mid and late December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Geezzoo Nice dates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Some good, some bad. 1977 and 1995 plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Wilmington NC and Myrtle Beach both had snow last nite. Earliest in recorded history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 Some good, some bad. 1977 and 1995 plz. Dec 1964 was pretty good too. Though we torched later that month...but the first 3 weeks were cold/snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Dec 1964 was pretty good too. Though we torched later that month...but the first 3 weeks were cold/snowy. Yeah you're right..just looked it up. That snow event in late November '95 is one of those random events I vividly remember. Maybe because it herald in such a good winter, but I always remember that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Wilmington NC and Myrtle Beach both had snow last nite. Earliest in recorded history Wilmington NC and Myrtle Beach both had snow last nite. Earliest in recorded history Look back at their metars. One of the most impressive displays of CAA in that area you will ever see in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 Yeah you're right..just looked it up. That snow event in late November '95 is one of those random events I vividly remember. Maybe because it herald in such a good winter, but I always remember that one. Yes, it was 11/29/95...over performed. Was supposed to be like 1-2" and a lot of people got 3-5"...most of it fell in 2-3 hours in a heavy burst. A wave formed along the front...kind of like a stronger version of yesterday, except that we were already on the cold side of the front for a day versus transitioning to it during the event itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Look back at their metars. One of the most impressive displays of CAA in that area you will ever see in November. it;s amazing how the Pacific rules the roost. The Pacific laughs at the Atlantic and it's indices. Something for folks(the weenies) to keep in mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2013 Author Share Posted November 13, 2013 it;s amazing how the Pacific rules the roost. The Pacific laughs at the Atlantic and it's indices. Something for folks(the weenies) to keep in mind That isn't always true. Just look at the first 10 days of January 2009 for an example. But you definitely need the Pacific to cooperate if you want a full arctic blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Look back at their metars. One of the most impressive displays of CAA in that area you will ever see in November. 30+ north gusts after midnight, not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 That isn't always true. Just look at the first 10 days of January 2009 for an example. But you definitely need the Pacific to cooperate if you want a full arctic blast. I know sometimes the Atlantic helps us out esp with the NAO, but I've come to the conclusion that if we want a good winter..or cold or snowy period..we need the Pac to cooperate. When conditions/setup is bad there..it just seems like we get screwed 9 times out of 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 it;s amazing how the Pacific rules the roost. The Pacific laughs at the Atlantic and it's indices. Something for folks(the weenies) to keep in mind Well N-NNE winds are the best CAA wind for them. No downsloping and it just oozes down the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Dec 1964 was pretty good too. Though we torched later that month...but the first 3 weeks were cold/snowy. Yeah you're right..just looked it up. That snow event in late November '95 is one of those random events I vividly remember. Maybe because it herald in such a good winter, but I always remember that one. Yeah that one was preceded by a very warm day. The modeling had warmth for us until the last minute. I was awakened at 4AM with the news of my mothers passing. I went into work to tidy things up and prepare to be in Rochester for 2 weeks. Heavy snow in the am, a flight to ROC in the late afternoon. While in roc it was cold with tons of les. On 12/2 there was a coastal the was quick snow to rain on the coast (2 inches of snow at BOS before the changeover. Reinforcing cold, and off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Yeah that one was preceded by a very warm day. The modeling had warmth for us until the last minute. I was awakened at 4AM with the news of my mothers passing. I went into work to tidy things up and prepare to be in Rochester for 2 weeks. Heavy snow in the am, a flight to ROC in the late afternoon. While in roc it was cold with tons of les. On 12/2 there was a coastal the was quick snow to rain on the coast (2 inches of snow at BOS before the changeover. Reinforcing cold, and off to the races. it was 70 on Christmas day in Newark in 1964...The snow that fell on the 21st melted just before midnight Christmas Eve in the fog...January 1965 saw snow on four consecutive weekends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 30+ north gusts after midnight, not too shabby. I know..pretty cool. Golfers crying for their mamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Yeah you're right..just looked it up. That snow event in late November '95 is one of those random events I vividly remember. Maybe because it herald in such a good winter, but I always remember that one. I also remember that day very vividly. I was 8, woke up for school and it was snowing/accumulating. About 2-3" fell, it was still on the ground when school was over...nice way to kick off the best of the best winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I also remember that day very vividly. I was 8, woke up for school and it was snowing/accumulating. About 2-3" fell, it was still on the ground when school was over...nice way to kick off the best of the best winters it would have been interesting if this board were around then when the Mid Jan super torch hit--30 inches of snow gone in 2 weeks after cutter after cutter hit.....pattern reloaded, but that was 3 weeks of hell after 6 weeks of glory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 I also remember that day very vividly. I was 8, woke up for school and it was snowing/accumulating. About 2-3" fell, it was still on the ground when school was over...nice way to kick off the best of the best winters Everything just froze...I love when it flips to snow and everything freezes as the snow falls on top. Just makes it seem like the N pole...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 it would have been interesting if this board were around then when the Mid Jan super torch hit--30 inches of snow gone in 2 weeks after cutter after cutter hit.....pattern reloaded, but that was 3 weeks of hell after 6 weeks of glory. The one good thing about those cutters was the fact that they had damaging winds. Two of them both brought trees down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Should be well above Saturday/Sunday through middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 The one good thing about those cutters was the fact that they had damaging winds. Two of them both brought trees down. yeah, I remember the screaming south winds...and the snowpack just being vaporized before my eyes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 yeah, I remember the screaming south winds...and the snowpack just being vaporized before my eyes... It did. Lots of flooding too. It was sad, but these things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 The warmth post-11/15 is definitely going to verify like has been progged for seemingly weeks. The pre-11/15 cold shot was more prolific than advertised originally....but the Thanksgiving day week stuff still has a long ways to go. Ensembles backed off slightly last night which isn't surprising given the time frame. I definitely envision the plains getting it first and it could be more up and down here before it finally settles in better. Its a bit of a cliche these days in meteorology, but its true often enough....the models will tend to rush regime changes in the long range moreso than the other way around. Agreed, ...we start moderating tomorrow, but really gets noticeable on Thursday, and I then suspect registering daily at or above norm departures right out through D6, ...although I am willing to bend to seasonal trend and maybe speed up the end of the warm period a day or so sooner, as a possibility. Looking back at the evolution of the current blast of wintry air, it appears almost have entirely originated by the EPO down spike. One can really track events back in time to solve the crime. Good lesson for many in how one cannot really throw hands in warm disgust because there is a -PNA/+AO gang bang on the pattern. The EPO and oft' enough the NAO can cook a different meal for us locally compared to the hemispheric signals. It's been an interesting mid autumn here, with these EPO bursters. It's modulated the warm periods shorter, and intensified the coldgasms. What fits there? The CDC has the EPO neutralizing and even going a tick positive before descending again beyond the 21st -- so with on-going -PNA, we find a warm spell nested in there. Figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 The warmth post-11/15 is definitely going to verify like has been progged for seemingly weeks. The pre-11/15 cold shot was more prolific than advertised originally....but the Thanksgiving day week stuff still has a long ways to go. Ensembles backed off slightly last night which isn't surprising given the time frame. I definitely envision the plains getting it first and it could be more up and down here before it finally settles in better. Its a bit of a cliche these days in meteorology, but its true often enough....the models will tend to rush regime changes in the long range moreso than the other way around. Agreed, ...we start moderating tomorrow, but really gets noticeable on Thursday, and I then suspect registering daily at or above norm departures right out through D6, ...although I am willing to bend to seasonal trend and maybe speed up the end of the warm period a day or so sooner, as a possibility. Looking back at the evolution of the current blast of wintry air, it appears almost have entirely originated by the EPO down spike. One can really track events back in time to solve the crime. Good lesson for many in how one cannot really throw hands in warm disgust because there is a -PNA/+AO gang bang on the pattern. The EPO and oft' enough the NAO can cook a different meal for us locally compared to the hemispheric signals. It's been an interesting mid autumn here, with these EPO bursters. It's modulated the warm periods shorter, and intensified the coldgasms. What fits there? The CDC has the EPO neutralizing and even going a tick positive before descending again beyond the 21st -- so with on-going -PNA, we find a warm spell nested in there. Figures. Nice explanation. Question, could this be a winter where the EPO rises and falls periodically? There would still be chances but snowpack retention could be iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 36 degrees in the middle of the day on 11/12 with no snowcover and bright sun. That's incredibly impressive. Long term snowpack? Not sure on that but I'm sure we're going to have some brutal cold interludes punctuated on either end with storminess. We've almost scrapped up a few OES type events too, been many years since they've been prolific and I'm thinking this year we may see more than a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 We've almost scrapped up a few OES type events too, been many years since they've been prolific and I'm thinking this year we may see more than a few. Perhaps we will see that elusive foot of ocean effect in that ocean effect hot spot Steve talks about in sw ri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Could not ask for a better pattern going forward this early. Looks beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Could not ask for a better pattern going forward this early. Looks beautiful. Yeah I feel like this is the first time in a while that early season snow and winter conditions is favorable. With the exception or 2010-11 as the obvious outlier Broke out the northface for the first time today. Mid winter feel- awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Perhaps we will see that elusive foot of ocean effect in that ocean effect hot spot Steve talks about in sw ri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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