November weather dicsussion

[CoastalWx]

He will always have his strapping

 

And Bruins starter jacket.

[N. OF PIKE]

The more I read your posts the more I understand the deep scars of childhood winter change to rains remain. Every post has a caveat, it's OK man sometimes it doesn't work out the way we want.

Hmmmm

I went ova to rain many times growing up in se mass, there was always a caveat to the beginning of snow forecasts. It was like "wintry precip heading this way for leading 6 pm news headline, but se mass weenies new there was prob a caveat, many times (all snow n/w if bos) or the dreaded .starting as snow and (wait for it)....changing over Se mass and coast. Yup so glad to be north of bos and a bit away from ocean.

[Ginx snewx]

DEC 09 Jan 11 twice Oct 11 Feb 13 March 13, damn no wonder my Grandson said to me, Poppa we always have big snowstorms. I tried telling him about 11/12 but in his mind it happens every year. I suppose that's why I thought the sixties and 70 were what winter was supposed to be like.

[Ginx snewx]

Hmmmm

it was a joke

[toronto blizzard]

HM had some very very nice things to say today. He was mentioning how there is the potential for this -NAO period coming up to linger into early January.

[CoastalWx]

HM had some very very nice things to say today. He was mentioning how there is the potential for this -NAO period coming up to linger into early January.

 

Well there is always potential if the tropics hold out. That's the million dollar question.

[Ginx snewx]

Always in the back of my mind this year is the uncanny resemblance of 91/92 92/93 93/94 weather wise storm wise to 11/12 12/13 13/?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Hopefully there's just a raging +AO and +EPO combo all winter and the moon is never full or new and Toronto gets the shaft.

[powderfreak]

The more I read your posts the more I understand the deep scars of childhood winter change to rains remain. Every post has a caveat, it's OK man sometimes it doesn't work out the way we want.

I do admire your optimism, Ginxy. A glass half-full winter lover...even if a warm-up is coming, you're already looking ahead to the next cold snap. Sometimes we take that as being a frigidair or "go cold or go home", but I'm starting to realize that's not it...you are just a glass half full so you are focusing on the positives (for winter lovers) and trying to not get hung up on the negatives.

I relate much better to Coastal's mentality...don't mean to be a Debbie but tend to look for the "what can go wrong" vs "what can go right."

[SouthCoastMA]

Men. At least southeast MA is more likely to be under blizzard warnings. Wind and snow make the threat of rain worth it...if you are able to stomach the inevitable handful of changeover situations.

[powderfreak]

Hopefully there's just a raging +AO and +EPO combo all winter and the moon is never full or new and Toronto gets the shaft.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Men. At least southeast MA is more likely to be under blizzard warnings. Wind and snow make the threat of rain worth it...if you are able to stomach the inevitable handful of changeover situations.

It's a tough debate. I'd *always* take the violent wind/snow combo over 12" of postcard snow because I just love a really intense storm (think scooter would agree) but sometimes it's hard to wait it out.

[Ginx snewx]

I do admire your optimism, Ginxy. A glass half-full winter lover...even if a warm-up is coming, you're already looking ahead to the next cold snap. Sometimes we take that as being a frigidair or "go cold or go home", but I'm starting to realize that's not it...you are just a glass half full so you are focusing on the positives (for winter lovers) and trying to not get hung up on the negatives.

I relate much better to Coastal's mentality...don't mean to be a Debbie but tend to look for the "what can go wrong" vs "what can go right."

You live next to MT THAT AVERAGES hundreds inches a year plus, please cry me a river. I was jostling with Scooter. What can go wrong you got frigging 24 inches on your summit Nov 13, skiing pow.

[Ginx snewx]

Hopefully there's just a raging +AO and +EPO combo all winter and the moon is never full or new and Toronto gets the shaft.

better yet CC has more ozone than the Arctic circle.

[powderfreak]

It's a tough debate. I'd *always* take the violent wind/snow combo over 12" of postcard snow because I just love a really intense storm (think scooter would agree) but sometimes it's hard to wait it out.

That's one thing I'm jealous of is the violent wind/snow combo out the window. I can get that at work on the mountain, but the mountains often block the best winds for me at home. I can't remember the last time I had wind and snow at the same time at home. 99% of the snow here falls straight down, even during big nor'easters. The wind always comes after the snow.

I'd love to get a good drifting storm down at the house this winter but odds are against it, no matter how much snow falls.

[powderfreak]

You live next to MT THAT AVERAGES hundreds inches a year plus, please cry me a river. I was jostling with Scooter. What can go wrong you got frigging 24 inches on your summit Nov 13, skiing pow.

Hahaha I know right?! But I still find myself looking for things that can go wrong. I was dead serious, I wish I had that optimism, lol.

[Ginx snewx]

That's one thing I'm jealous of is the violent wind/snow combo out the window. I can get that at work on the mountain, but the mountains often block the best winds for me at home. I can't remember the last time I had wind and snow at the same time at home. 99% of the snow here falls straight down, even during big nor'easters. The wind always comes after the snow.

I'd love to get a good drifting storm down at the house this winter but odds are against it, no matter how much snow falls.

my favorite,

[CoastalWx]

I do admire your optimism, Ginxy. A glass half-full winter lover...even if a warm-up is coming, you're already looking ahead to the next cold snap. Sometimes we take that as being a frigidair or "go cold or go home", but I'm starting to realize that's not it...you are just a glass half full so you are focusing on the positives (for winter lovers) and trying to not get hung up on the negatives.

I relate much better to Coastal's mentality...don't mean to be a Debbie but tend to look for the "what can go wrong" vs "what can go right."

 

But I'm not looking at what can go wrong..lol. I'm trying to be realistic.

[CoastalWx]

It's a tough debate. I'd *always* take the violent wind/snow combo over 12" of postcard snow because I just love a really intense storm (think scooter would agree) but sometimes it's hard to wait it out.

 

I agree. I love a violent storm...in fact when I heard about what happened down on the s-shore and Cape during the Feb blizzard I became a little jealous.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Coastal areas get rocked way more than we do in terms of whopper wind/wet snow events. Those are special

Remind me of them when a Dec 1992 rolls around

[Ginx snewx]

Hahaha I know right?! But I still find myself looking for things that can go wrong. I was dead serious, I wish I had that optimism, lol.

pessimism I guess leads to greater joy when it turns out better, I am not afraid of failure or busts, some are so pessimistic it is funny. Just read through our last four great storms, it's the same ones every time even as the storms are underway. I won't bump the posts as they are paid to forecast but damn it is funny. Hey I don’t care what can I say.

[Ginx snewx]

But I'm not looking at what can go wrong..lol. I'm trying to be realistic.

yeah well you have to be.

[ORH_wxman]

18z GEFS show hwo the pattern may not be that fast changing to big cold/snow chances. It intensifies the RNA look out west, so despite the weakly -NAO and the -EPO, the the SE ridging keeps us more mild...it might work better on December 10th...but on November 25-30th, its harder.

 

 

[TalcottWx]

Posting that a model shows a torch, does not imply one is forecasting for a torch.

[forkyfork]

yet another fropa that gets drier as we get closer.  the 12z euro looked drier overall than 0z

[Tropopause_Fold]

yeah well you have to be.

I can appreciate that

Thing is...I spent enough time wishing for certain things to happen when I was young. Now...what I care about more is getting it right and understanding why something happened the way it did.

Even busting in the "positive" direction kind of sucks.

I don't like being wrong - not so much because "being wrong" bothers me but just listening to people talk about it and not understanding how much time/effort goes into trying to get it right.

People think it's easy...but the more I learn, the less I know.

[powderfreak]

But I'm not looking at what can go wrong..lol. I'm trying to be realistic.

that's another way to put it. Professionally cautious.

[toronto blizzard]

18z GEFS show hwo the pattern may not be that fast changing to big cold/snow chances. It intensifies the RNA look out west, so despite the weakly -NAO and the -EPO, the the SE ridging keeps us more mild...it might work better on December 10th...but on November 25-30th, its harder.

 

 

Eh Gfs ensembles haven't remained consistent on a run-to-run basis

[Tropopause_Fold]

yet another fropa that gets drier as we get closer. the 12z euro looked drier overall than 0z

Still was a pretty healthy .5 to .75" though, no? I only looked at it briefly earlier today

[powderfreak]

pessimism I guess leads to greater joy when it turns out better, I am not afraid of failure or busts, some are so pessimistic it is funny. Just read through our last four great storms, it's the same ones every time even as the storms are underway. I won't bump the posts as they are paid to forecast but damn it is funny. Hey I don’t care what can I say.

Yeah it does lead to greater joy when it comes...I usually try to set the bar low and get it exceeded. At the mountain I forecast pretty cautiously but if it snows more than forecast or gets colder, no one cares lol. If I'm too high on snow or too low on temps, that's when I hear about it.