November weather dicsussion

[CoastalWx]

While the ensemble mean spread wasn't very cold per se at the end...you can see the potential this airmass has on the op run at the end of the run.

[weathafella]

Steve is president for life of the frigidaire club.

[OceanStWx]

In the for what it's worth department, low temps Monday morning ahead of the front could be near 50 up here. The record warm low for the date at PWM is 47. However, we'll probably see a midnight low after the fropa. It'll be close though.

[N. OF PIKE]

Steve is president for life of the frigidaire club.

He talks about the cold more, and he may look fwd to the next cold shot, but he doesn't hype and he puts it out there

[N. OF PIKE]

Wow anchorage really enters ICE box next week

[Typhoon Tip]

Scott and Steve are hilariously locked in a subversive prize fight.   Ginxy delivers a right cross, -EPO diagram, and Coastal counter punches with some qualitative analysis that upper-cuts an exception to the rule.  Duck, bob, weave ...    Steve wants it cold at least excuse imaginable (j/k), and Scott kind of seems to have taken on the role of enthusiasm cop, blowing whistles and tempering expectations when it seems like someones excited.

 

Seriously though, not sure why an interpretation of a weather pattern has to evoke a sense of violation ... on any level for that matter.  Just because someone posts a cold image or two, and someone waits three posts later to make some other thought progression, that doesn't have to mean it is a troll post.  But even if so, just ignore the f thing. Lord.  Does anyone honestly believe that the people using/reading the content of the forum value the trolling more than the original insight?   I think most objective readers can tell the difference.  We're all guilty of this miss-interpretation at one time or another, but it just seems this is a good time to bring it up, and make folks cognizant of it as we head on into the most active posting season.  

 

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Patience, that's the name of the game.  We are still in a transitory pattern ... cold incursions rolling out into warm departures.  It's been rinsing and repeating since mid October. It is autumn at its finest.  The why of the thing appears to be rooted in occasional -EPO bursts.  The other thing I am noticing is that although the PNA has been primarily negative as of late, I do not believe the N/A quadrature of that PNA domain space has been cooperating there.  There has still been some tendencies to raise heights into the W a bit, at least enough to tilt the deep layer flow and drag some of those EPO assisted chilly air masses into the 40th parallel.   Sort of on an every 3 day roller-coaster ride.

 

Anyway, the longer term teleconnectors are signaling a neutralized AO, a persistent however modestly negative EPO, and the NAO descends as well. The PNA is also alleviated it's negative.  I don't believe the AO has to really plummet... Just the loss of over 3 SD in the positive phase state, combined with seasonal trends for at least transient cold waves into the NP-GL-OV-NE regions gives a good intuitive feel for where we are heading (if you are a winter weather enthusiast).  One thing I find interesting is that some autumns and Novies establish the "no -EPO for you, ONE YEAR!" pattern Nazi, other years (like this one so for), do not.  It's tough to know exactly why that is.  Could be any part, or in whole, of the air, land, sea teleconnectors beginning in Asia and ending up in western Canada.   

[CT Rain]

GFS is very meh on the cold shot next week... core stays well north. GEFS mean continues -EPO theme but has a very positive NAO. I have a feeling that may favor cutters Thanksgiving week. 

[powderfreak]

Steve is president for life of the frigidaire club.

Haha, he's just giving the cold some love.

[Tropopause_Fold]

GFS is very meh on the cold shot next week... core stays well north. GEFS mean continues -EPO theme but has a very positive NAO. I have a feeling that may favor cutters Thanksgiving week. 

as is the euro (though pretty strong with the late week/weekend/la-la land shot).

 

fair amount of precip with the fropa though.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Scott and Steve are hilariously locked in a subversive prize fight.   Ginxy delivers a right cross, -EPO diagram, and Coastal counter punches with some qualitative analysis that upper-cuts an exception to the rule.  Duck, bob, weave ...    Steve wants it cold at least excuse imaginable (j/k), and Scott kind of seems to have taken on the role of enthusiasm cop, blowing whistles and tempering expectations when it seems like someones excited.

 

Seriously though, not sure why an interpretation of a weather pattern has to evoke a sense of violation ... on any level for that matter.  Just because someone posts a cold image or two, and someone waits three posts later to make some other thought progression, that doesn't have to mean it is a troll post.  But even if so, just ignore the f thing. Lord.  Does anyone honestly believe that the people using/reading the content of the forum value the trolling more than the original insight?   I think most objective readers can tell the difference.  We're all guilty of this miss-interpretation at one time or another, but it just seems this is a good time to bring it up, and make folks cognizant of it as we head on into the most active posting season.  

 

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phew! thank goodness you're here!

[Ginx snewx]

as is the euro (though pretty strong with the late week/weekend/la-la land shot).

 

fair amount of precip with the fropa though.

Hopefully similar precip to the last one , about .6 here and more east

[Typhoon Tip]

phew! thank goodness you're here!

 

I don't think you are getting the point, or perhaps you are miss-interpreting the intent there. 

 

If a few of us bring it up, maybe we can establish a culture that doesn't foster as much negative crap, because when the weather turns active, it gets annoying having to deal with it and wade through bs to get to interesting idea and obs and so forth.   

[Typhoon Tip]

What an interesting pattern on the Euro Ds 8 and 9.  I secludes a cold air mass over TX, while moderating Iowa.  -10C at 850mb over W TX while is +1 or 2C over top. 

[Ginx snewx]

Mid month update.

 

Halfway through Nov

 

BOS - 1

 

HFD -1.6

 

ORH -2.5

 

NYC -1.9

 

BDR -1.3

 

GYX -1.3

 

BTV -1.5

 

CON -1.8

[ORH_wxman]

That is a cold T-day week up here on the Euro...we'll see if it has some legs. Its way out in la-la land so not a ton of stock put into it, but since it has a pattern not to dissimilar from yesterday's 12z ensembles, then it gives it a drop more credibility.

 

 

Its interesting how it drives the cold right back in here very quickly next Friday.

[Ginx snewx]

That is a cold T-day week up here on the Euro...we'll see if it has some legs. Its way out in la-la land so not a ton of stock put into it, but since it has a pattern not to dissimilar from yesterday's 12z ensembles, then it gives it a drop more credibility.

 

 

Its interesting how it drives the cold right back in here very quickly next Friday.

hopefully no one kills me but walking through the dailies you can see how the warm up attempt after the cold frontal passage is squashed then the hounds come down. 

[Ginx snewx]

i am probably wrong in this assessment too but is that the STJ starting to dig in to the west at day 8

[CT Rain]

hopefully no one kills me but walking through the dailies you can see how the warm up attempt after the cold frontal passage is squashed then the hounds come down. 

 

It looks like the Sultan of Shivers ran the 12z Euro out of his basement. Cold look for sure... especially extrapolating out to the week of Thanksgiving. GFS and GEFS have a warmer look, however.

 

i am probably wrong in this assessment too but is that the STJ starting to dig in to the west at day 8

 

Not sure I see that... just looking at the bogus cutoff low over TX by D8. 

[Ginx snewx]

It looks like the Sultan of Shivers ran the 12z Euro out of his basement. Cold look for sure... especially extrapolating out to the week of Thanksgiving. GFS and GEFS have a warmer look, however.

 

 

Not sure I see that... just looking at the bogus cutoff low over TX by D8. 

Thanks

[Damage In Tolland]

Man..that is deep deep winter on the Euro. 12z Euro ens up next and we feeling good

[Damage In Tolland]

Mid month update.

 

Halfway through Nov

 

BOS - 1

 

HFD -1.6

 

ORH -2.5

 

NYC -1.9

 

BDR -1.3

 

GYX -1.3

 

BTV -1.5

 

CON -1.8

Question is will we get to normal or above before the cold next Tues-Thurs?

[JoMo]

i am probably wrong in this assessment too but is that the STJ starting to dig in to the west at day 8

 

I think it's a cutoff low. The GEM and GFS have a similar feature. 

[Ginx snewx]

I think it's a cutoff low. The GEM and GFS have a similar feature. 

Thanks yea I see the cutoff was wondering if that Jet off the Pacific was involved.

[CT Rain]

Thanks

 

I was being serious lol

[Ginx snewx]

Question is will we get to normal or above before the cold next Tues-Thurs?

close probably above

[Ginx snewx]

I was being serious lol

I said thanks I was being serious too LOL

[CT Rain]

Man..that is deep deep winter on the Euro. 12z Euro ens up next and we feeling good

? 

 

Not sure I'd "feel good" about a 180-240 hour op Euro run that we're extrapolating out to Thanksgiving week lol. 

 

GFS/GEFS (which I think have been doing as well if not better than the Euro) show a much milder solution with near or just above normal temps for most of Thanksgiving week. 

[CT Rain]

I said thanks I was being serious too LOL

 

lol - I wasn't sure if you were annoyed by "Sultan of Shivers"

[CapturedNature]

For the sake of gauging anomalies, at least as it translates into surface weather, these are the Connecticut normals for the next few weeks:

 

        Coast  Inland NW Hills
NOV 15  54/36   52/33   49/30
NOV 18  53/36   51/32   48/29
NOV 21  52/35   50/31   47/28
NOV 24  51/34   48/30   46/27
NOV 27  50/33   47/29   44/26
NOV 30  48/32   46/28   43/25
DEC  3  47/31   45/27   42/24
DEC  6  46/30   44/26   40/23

 

I always like to see how my 29 year long term normal numbers stack up and they compare very well with the NW Hills, expect my lows are little lower but I'm in a good radiational cooling spot.

 

Nov 15 - 49/28

Nov 18 - 47/27

Nov 21 - 46/26

Nov 24 - 45/25

Nov 27 - 44/24

Nov 30 - 43/24

Dec 3 - 42/23

Dec 6 - 41/22

[OceanStWx]

? 

 

Not sure I'd "feel good" about a 180-240 hour op Euro run that we're extrapolating out to Thanksgiving week lol. 

 

GFS/GEFS (which I think have been doing as well if not better than the Euro) show a much milder solution with near or just above normal temps for most of Thanksgiving week. 

 

It is interesting, as we've been running verification on our new days 4-8 methodology we've noticed the Euro being one of the poorer performers on max/min temps in the last several weeks.

 

That's for all 2000+ forecast grids in our CWA.