ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 Shouldn't the last x pages be in the banter thread? Yes, it typically tends to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Yes, it typically tends to happen. Just a lot of angst lately. Weather on weather threads banter elsewhere. Or have a festivas tomorrow night, hug it out, whatever. It's too early for cold, and for all the back and forth. Jmho. Going to be a long winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Yes, it typically tends to happen. Our recent discussion, though, is centered around the current pattern (probably) terminating during the end of the month. At least I thought it was. I could be wrong. It's tough though, because seasonal trend and the obscuring of pattern recognition that happens during, makes that a bit more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I wonder if the CPC AO forecasts for a free fall from +4 to six members going to -2 and nearly all falling at least to near neutral in next few days will pan out. Haven't been following the (forecast) index that closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 lol at that d8-9 cold shot on the euro. There's a strong cluster of ec ens members dipping 850s to around -14 to-18C too here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 lol at that d8-9 cold shot on the euro. There's a strong cluster of ec ens members dipping 850s to around -14 to-18C too here. The mean is rather chilly at the time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I wonder if the CPC AO forecasts for a free fall from +4 to six members going to -2 and nearly all falling at least to near neutral in next few days will pan out. Haven't been following the (forecast) index that closely It has show as strong trend towards this every day, gaining much more strength as days pass, it would be pretty unusual if that strong trend suddenly reversed but it has occurred before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 light Rain 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The fact that we keep getting these cold blasts in a +AO regime is pretty encouraging, sometimes good winters find a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The fact that we keep getting these cold blasts in a +AO regime is pretty encouraging, sometimes good winters find a way. The Paciic is defitnely helping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 The fact that we keep getting these cold blasts in a +AO regime is pretty encouraging, sometimes good winters find a way. yes exactly, now with the predicted realignment , this is PNA NAO AO driven, need some storms, still a concern. baroclinicity seems to be lacking, open up that Gulf and excite the STJ!!! Euro Ens 850 means for Tues to Tues 19.11.2013 00 GMT -6.9 °C 20.11.2013 00 GMT -4.8 °C 21.11.2013 00 GMT 0.6 °C 22.11.2013 00 GMT 0.5 °C 23.11.2013 00 GMT -6.8 °C 24.11.2013 00 GMT -8.7 °C 25.11.2013 00 GMT -11.7 °C 26.11.2013 00 GMT -8.4 °C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 lol at that d8-9 cold shot on the euro. There's a strong cluster of ec ens members dipping 850s to around -14 to-18C too here. not to mention the weenie overrunning snowstorm for the Berks, Greens and Whites and Els in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 not to mention the weenie overrunning snowstorm for the Berks, Greens and Whites and Els in NNE I'd love it if we could muster snow on the ground for Thanksgiving--if not on the day itself. I think we'd need to keep it pretty cold for a long time though to maintain anything that comes from that. Much too far out to worry about it though. Warm morning, eh? 40.1/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 wave spacing continues to be a little strange. a lot of the downstream heights from each of the domains looks a little "off" from what you'd expect. maybe still just a little early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 wave spacing continues to be a little strange. a lot of the downstream heights from each of the domains looks a little "off" from what you'd expect. maybe still just a little early. Yeah, good observation. I think it is a little early..... we'd probably see a different look a month from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Sorry but given how hard it is to get the ingredients of a legit snowstorm to fall just right at any location would it not make sense that the cons to pros ratio for that snowstorm would be greater than 1 and thus skew the discussion toward con on average? Seems normal to me that there's more that can go wrong than right....most of the time anyway....maybe I'm off here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Sorry but given how hard it is to get the ingredients of a legit snowstorm to fall just right at any location would it not make sense that the cons to pros ratio for that snowstorm would be greater than 1 and thus skew the discussion toward con on average? Seems normal to me that there's more that can go wrong than right....most of the time anyway....maybe I'm off here Doesn't that state the obvious? Otherwise, I think we'd really wouldn't need that many meteorologists in the world. Or, maybe I'm misreading your statement. Balmy--will let one of the stoves die down ftw. 49.2/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan1h ECMWF Ensemble Weather Forecast Guess indicating White Thanksgiving is within the realm of possibility for Boston http://www.weather.us/newWindow.php?x=MA_BOSTON … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan1h ECMWF Ensemble Weather Forecast Guess indicating White Thanksgiving is within the realm of possibility for Boston http://www.weather.us/newWindow.php?x=MA_BOSTON … fYI you can change that to HFD too, http://www.weather.us/newWindow.php?x=CT_HARTFORD http://www.weather.us/nav.php?type=ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Yeah, good observation. I think it is a little early..... we'd probably see a different look a month from now. yeah my guess is we've just jumped into this a bit earlier than maybe we have in past years...especially in terms of the daily analysis by all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 TK has jumped the meteorology shark. i don't know why...but he's just mailing it in at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 yeah my guess is we've just jumped into this a bit earlier than maybe we have in past years...especially in terms of the daily analysis by all of us. with Dec just 15 days away and many great storms in the first week of, plus already having accumulating snow, not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Yeah, good observation. I think it is a little early..... we'd probably see a different look a month from now. Anything between now and December 15th or so should just be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 According to the graph linked from TK's twitter above, on the 25th there is one ensemble member that breaks a surface temp record on the high side, and a few (2-3) members that break the record on the low side. I thought that was funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 with Dec just 15 days away and many great storms in the first week of, plus already having accumulating snow, not really. yeah but we've been looking pretty closely for several weeks. jmo, think it's early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 According to the graph linked from TK's twitter above, on the 25th there is one ensemble member that breaks a surface temp record on the high side, and a few (2-3) members that break the record on the low side. I thought that was funny.Those are 850s and it's par for the course in ensemble member lalaland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 when you see outputs like this it does excite the weenie to be an outie. great end of Nov storm in 2002 followed by a 2-4 then the great Dec 5th storm, at any rate seeing a pattern which can support these types of events is pretty encouraging and much better than not seeing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 yeah but we've been looking pretty closely for several weeks. jmo, think it's early. well we are weenies and we did get to look closely at a snow event, would rather be doing this than watching temp trends and discussing bird returns on Dual Pol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 There's definitely some mixed signals in the long range. This is not an easy forecast for the energy mets...it could honestly differ by like 10-15F for a 1 week period in early December. We are teetering on the brink of haviong an arctic pattern over us...but also teetering on the brink of disaster with torching PAC air and the boundary lifted well north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 well we are weenies and we did get to look closely at a snow event, would rather be doing this than watching temp trends and discussing bird returns on Dual Pol I'm pretty happy to weenie out on a nice late season severe outbreak. Actually a pretty good surge of high theta-e air moves into SNE, especially early Monday afternoon. Very impressive for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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