November weather dicsussion

[powderfreak]

it's not about looking for positives and negatives....it's being objective.

Amen.

[Typhoon Tip]

Amen.

 

 

Objective thinking considers all negative and positive influences on a system, evenly ...  You cannot in logic disconnect that from objectivity.   

[powderfreak]

Objective thinking considers all negative and positive influences on a system, evenly ... You cannot in logic disconnect that from objectivity.

Correct. But negative and positive is a bad term for it as each person may see one type of weather as a positive while others hate it.

[CoastalWx]

Objective thinking considers all negative and positive influences on a system, evenly ... You cannot in logic disconnect that from objectivity.

I think we do a good job doing that, but given the volatility of the pattern, it's a good idea not to

go hog wild over cold and snow. It's funny because the same weenies will complain if the pattern doesn't shape up like they thought it would, meanwhile we've stated why all along.

[CT Rain]

I think we do a good job doing that, but given the volatility of the pattern, it's a good idea not to

go hog wild over cold and snow. It's funny because the same weenies will complain if the pattern doesn't shape up like they thought it would, meanwhile we've stated why all along.

Some people only believe/listen to what they want to hear.

[Ginx snewx]

Correct.

whats your take on next weeks upslope?

[powderfreak]

whats your take on next weeks upslope?

6" or less on the mountain. The moisture is lacking in the low level RH fields and duration should limit significant accums. But it should at least put something down. To be honest though I haven't spend a lot of time on that...I'm more in temperature land right now for snowmaking. Should be a solid 48 hour period next week of top-to-bottom temps starting late Monday night. By Thursday it might be upper mountain only though as H85s climb fast.

[Ginx snewx]

6" or less on the mountain. The moisture is lacking in the low level RH fields and duration should limit significant accums. But it should at least put something down. To be honest though I haven't spend a lot of time on that...I'm more in temperature land right now for snowmaking. Should be a solid 48 hour period next week of top-to-bottom temps starting late Monday night. By Thursday it might be upper mountain only though as H85s climb fast.

Nice, yea looks pretty dry at 7H on the GFS anyways. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Correct. But negative and positive is a bad term for it as each person may see one type of weather as a positive while others hate it.

 

 

It really isn't though, because part of the definition of objectivity contains neutrality, and neutrality is a mathematical result of both.

 

The problem is, we need to use negative and positive for the weather analytic process.   We have to speak in terms of negative and positive for describing atmospheric events.  The fault is thus in the user in that sense.  Those were reserved words in a sense.  There may be a bit of confusion there.  

[Damage In Tolland]

I think we do a good job doing that, but given the volatility of the pattern, it's a good idea not to

go hog wild over cold and snow. It's funny because the same weenies will complain if the pattern doesn't shape up like they thought it would, meanwhile we've stated why all along.

Some people like to look for things that go wrong..cause worry and angst, whether it's realistic or not. It's mere conjecture. Why not focus on both pros and cons? let's talk about what looks good in the coming pattern. Switch gears..flip the script a bit

[powderfreak]

It really isn't though, because part of the definition of objectivity contains neutrality, and neutrality is a mathematical result of both.

The problem is, we need to use negative and positive for the weather analytic process. We have to speak in terms of negative and positive for describing atmospheric events. The fault is thus in the user in that sense. Those were reserved words in a sense. There may be a bit of confusion there.

Yeah I get what you are saying. Looking at positives and negatives of an event occurring, regardless of the type of event. If it's a cutting torch rainstorm, we look at the positives for that to happen and the negatives against it. If it's a blizzard, the same thing.

[powderfreak]

Switch gears..flip the script a bit

What if they asked you the same thing?

[Damage In Tolland]

What if they asked you the same thing?

I would oblige

[powderfreak]

I would oblige

lol...I'm just playing devils advocate. What would be interesting is Blizz poo-pooing any cold/snow, while the mets are cold cheerleaders.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Some people like to look for things that go wrong..cause worry and angst, whether it's realistic or not. It's mere conjecture. Why not focus on both pros and cons? let's talk about what looks good in the coming pattern. Switch gears..flip the script a bit

who is only looking at what could go wrong? no one is doing that.

[CoastalWx]

Some people like to look for things that go wrong..cause worry and angst, whether it's realistic or not. It's mere conjecture. Why not focus on both pros and cons? let's talk about what looks good in the coming pattern. Switch gears..flip the script a bit

I think we have focused on pros and cons. Talking about what can go right and claiming two snow events before Thanksgiving is irresponsible and weenieism. Likewise claiming all cutters is just the opposite. I've stated my thoughts. I think we really need to wait it out for anything meaninful. If we happen to sneak in a winter threat over the next two weeks, consider it a bonus. We go through this every year about rushing in a pattern.

[Damage In Tolland]

lol...I'm just playing devils advocate. What would be interesting is Blizz poo-pooing any cold/snow, while the mets are cold cheerleaders.

Ive certainly done that before. But realistically it's very rare that the general group of mets in here are rah rah siss boom bah for cold. I guess that's kind of my point. I understand caution and negative options are there. But we need more positive posts and what looks good in the upcoming pattern. Instead of the GFS looks like cutters thanksgiving week and the Euro is overdone on cold etc etc. .. Just my thoughts

[Damage In Tolland]

I think we have focused on pros and cons. Talking about what can go right and claiming two snow events before Thanksgiving is irresponsible and weenieism. Likewise claiming all cutters is just the opposite. I've stated my thoughts. I think we really need to wait it out for anything meaninful. If we happen to sneak in a winter threat over the next two weeks, consider it a bonus. We go through this every year about rushing in a pattern.

So what looks good in the coming pattern? What do you see that gives you optimism of cold and snow?

[CoastalWx]

So what looks good in the coming pattern? What do you see that gives you optimism of cold and snow?

 

In what time frame? 

[Typhoon Tip]

I think we do a good job doing that, but given the volatility of the pattern, it's a good idea not to

go hog wild over cold and snow. It's funny because the same weenies will complain if the pattern doesn't shape up like they thought it would, meanwhile we've stated why all along.

 

Agreed -- for winter enthusiasm, I think one can be encouraged that a good foundation may be laid, only. 

[ORH_wxman]

So what looks good in the coming pattern? What do you see that gives you optimism of cold and snow?

 

 

A negative EPO is good...there's no guarantee its stays far enough east though. If it retrogrades more toward WPO region in conjunction with an RNA pattern, then we might be warmer.

 

If it stays more eastward, then we could have a very nice cold and potentially snowy pattern to start December...especially if we can get a -NAO to go with it.

[Damage In Tolland]

In what time frame? 

After the cold down starting Tuesday..thru as long as you can see

[forkyfork]

Ive certainly done that before. But realistically it's very rare that the general group of mets in here are rah rah siss boom bah for cold. I guess that's kind of my point. I understand caution and negative options are there. But we need more positive posts and what looks good in the upcoming pattern. Instead of the GFS looks like cutters thanksgiving week and the Euro is overdone on cold etc etc. .. Just my thoughts

what does this accomplish other than making you feel better?

[Tropopause_Fold]

what does this accomplish other than making you feel better?

that's all. unless he thinks it changes the outcome some how. 

[Damage In Tolland]

what does this accomplish other than making you feel better?

I can't ever recall you making any positive posts about anything.. Even rain or cicadas

[Brian5671]

Ive certainly done that before. But realistically it's very rare that the general group of mets in here are rah rah siss boom bah for cold. I guess that's kind of my point. I understand caution and negative options are there. But we need more positive posts and what looks good in the upcoming pattern. Instead of the GFS looks like cutters thanksgiving week and the Euro is overdone on cold etc etc. .. Just my thoughts

I'd rather have the Mets analysis and give us their thoughts on what they think will happen and not what we hope will happen....my 2 cents

[CoastalWx]

After the cold down starting Tuesday..thru as long as you can see

 

Well the cold shot near day 10 seems like it might have legs. but I also see signs of a cutter at that time.  Beyond that you have some pros and cons. Pros are AK ridging and ridging near the west coast. However it may behave like a -PNA and we have to deal with some SE ridging.

 

Here is the bottom line, The same height pattern 6 weeks from now would likely be different....in fact, it would be different. However, you are asking a lot from the same pattern in late November due to climo and wavelength issues. It's simply way to irresponsible (IMHO) to go for cold and snow this early in the season given this pattern.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well the cold shot near day 10 seems like it might have legs. but I also see signs of a cutter at that time. Beyond that you have some pros and cons. Pros are AK ridging and ridging near the west coast. However it may behave like a -PNA and we have to deal with some SE ridging.

Here is the bottom line, The same height pattern 6 weeks from now would likely be different....in fact, it would be different. However, you are asking a lot from the same pattern in late November due to climo and wavelength issues. It's simply way to irresponsible (IMHO) to go for cold and snow this early in the season given this pattern.

Ok thanks. By the same token would you say its irresponsible to go for warmth and cutters at this point in the season?

[ORH_wxman]

Well the cold shot near day 10 seems like it might have legs. but I also see signs of a cutter at that time.  Beyond that you have some pros and cons. Pros are AK ridging and ridging near the west coast. However it may behave like a -PNA and we have to deal with some SE ridging.

 

Here is the bottom line, The same height pattern 6 weeks from now would likely be different....in fact, it would be different. However, you are asking a lot from the same pattern in late November due to climo and wavelength issues. It's simply way to irresponsible (IMHO) to go for cold and snow this early in the season given this pattern.

 

 

Its interesting how Nov 28-Dec 4 is a really weak period for big snowfall climatologically in SNE...we've had big snowstorms between Nov 22-27 and then of course Dec 5th and onward...but that one week in there is really paltry. Probably a fluke...maybe this is the year we can get something substantial.

 

If we can tap into the EPO pattern with good efficiency, then we'd have a shot. Kind of like what a few of those OP GFS runs do post-T-Day.

[toronto blizzard]

Well the cold shot near day 10 seems like it might have legs. but I also see signs of a cutter at that time. Beyond that you have some pros and cons. Pros are AK ridging and ridging near the west coast. However it may behave like a -PNA and we have to deal with some SE ridging.

Here is the bottom line, The same height pattern 6 weeks from now would likely be different....in fact, it would be different. However, you are asking a lot from the same pattern in late November due to climo and wavelength issues. It's simply way to irresponsible (IMHO) to go for cold and snow this early in the season given this pattern.

Well said Scott. It's really amazing to see the GEFS change constantly from run-to-run. Yesterday we had a "ridge bridge" showing up with the -EPO connecting with the -NAO now they're showing low heights remaining up there and over the NAO region which really doesn't make sense to me given that the indices will be trending negative. Tommorow the ensembles could flip back. HM was mentioning that the Hadley cell circulation will cause models all sorts of problems.