Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I'm pretty happy to weenie out on a nice late season severe outbreak. Actually a pretty good surge of high theta-e air moves into SNE, especially early Monday afternoon. Very impressive for November. yeah that's pretty cool too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I'm pretty happy to weenie out on a nice late season severe outbreak. Actually a pretty good surge of high theta-e air moves into SNE, especially early Monday afternoon. Very impressive for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 There's definitely some mixed signals in the long range. This is not an easy forecast for the energy mets...it could honestly differ by like 10-15F for a 1 week period in early December. We are teetering on the brink of haviong an arctic pattern over us...but also teetering on the brink of disaster with torching PAC air and the boundary lifted well north. Yeah, I agree....a reason why the flags are out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I'm pretty happy to weenie out on a nice late season severe outbreak. Actually a pretty good surge of high theta-e air moves into SNE, especially early Monday afternoon. Very impressive for November. I timed a trip to S MI pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I timed a trip to S MI pretty well.Tors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I timed a trip to S MI pretty well. Should be in a pretty sweet spot there (you know if you're into that sort of thing). Looking particularly nasty just west of Chicagoland in the middle of the afternoon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I'm pretty happy to weenie out on a nice late season severe outbreak. Actually a pretty good surge of high theta-e air moves into SNE, especially early Monday afternoon. Very impressive for November. What kind of potential are we talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 What kind of potential are we talking? We're talking mixing down that LLJ. The warm sector will mostly feature an inversion, but SNE has enough instability to do something with the line of showers as it moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 GGEM looked icy D6+ .... never seen this model verify anything at that t-range though. experimental thought process here, but the seasonal trend for loading cold appears pretty clearly linked to the AA-phase/-EPO in the NP --> N/A region, and we've been doing this repeating in a +AO/-PNA anti-correlation. What intrigues me is that now ... every member of the GEFS AO drops the index by almost 4 total SD, and raises the PNA 2 SD, over the next 10 days, while persisting with the -EPO. The question naturally becomes what are the implications for cold. I'm seeing every operational run there is other than the GFS indicating -20C at 850 into southern Canada beyond D6! Personally believe the GFS' progressive bias may miss some of the meridional flow tendency, while at the same token the GGEM is probably over-done off the 00z guidance with its -21C over ORH, D8.5 Polar or polar-arctic outbreak early signaled ... first NP/GL spreading E toward the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 when you see outputs like this it does excite the weenie to be an outie. great end of Nov storm in 2002 followed by a 2-4 then the great Dec 5th storm, at any rate seeing a pattern which can support these types of events is pretty encouraging and much better than not seeing it 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif Shockingly, I got shafted in both of those. lol I'm really pleased to see the rainy events (or even some mixing??) shaping up. As we move toward cooler weather, it's nice to have signs of the dry spell lessening. No snow today, that's for sure. 54.3/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 That's a cold outbreak on the euro today! 492 thicknesses breaching into North Dakota d7, swfe starting as snow for many at the same time in sne. Admittedly pretty far out bit always nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 And thanksgiving week releases the major hounds east of the Rockies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 And thanksgiving week releases the major hounds east of the Rockies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 DAMN what a cold blast on the EURO, looks like we still can't buy a -AO, but looks like the EURO wants to spike a +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 DAMN what a cold blast on the EURO, looks like we still can't buy a -AO, but looks like the EURO wants to spike a +PNA. That AO d10 looks negative as the ht rises hit the pole fwiw. That's what is releasing the hounds in the operational guidance today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 DAMN what a cold blast on the EURO, looks like we still can't buy a -AO, but looks like the EURO wants to spike a +PNA.Nice SWFE up here in fantasy land d7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Ensembles confirm cold blast thanksgiving week. Nice look....not sure of longevity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Nice SWFE up here in fantasy land d7. GFS too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 GEFS and Euro Ens drop the Arctic Hammer Thanksgiving week. Probably run a threat for a snow or wintry mix event beyond Saturday's SWFE potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 GFS and Euro Ensembles are really chilly Thanksgiving week. Core of cold right over NEUS. Probably would manage a snow threat out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 NAM MOS pulls a 70F at BDL on Monday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 GFS and Euro Ensembles are really chilly Thanksgiving week. Core of cold right over NEUS. Probably would manage a snow threat out of that. Maybe I've picked the right week for vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 when you see outputs like this it does excite the weenie to be an outie. great end of Nov storm in 2002 followed by a 2-4 then the great Dec 5th storm, at any rate seeing a pattern which can support these types of events is pretty encouraging and much better than not seeing it 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif There was also a light to moderate snow event November 1995, one of the years in that analog package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 i miss those old maps!! Hope we get some snow soon There was also a light to moderate snow event November 1995, one of the years in that analog package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 ineedsnow, this is Ray (famartin) Winter Storm Archive for NJ. Shows all winter snow/ice events from 93. Some of the older dates have those TWC maps if you want to get a little nostalgic. : http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/ Day 10 EURO would likely lead to a monster storm. As 'Wow" pointed out in the SE thread, you can see all 3 streams coming together at 240 hrs...Lala land so it doesn't matter, but fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 really hope winter isn't going to puke itself out in the next 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 really hope winter isn't going to puke itself out in the next 4 weeks.Think positive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I'm looking forward to a potential -AO/+PNA/-NAO pattern or at least have all three in the neutral phase at the same time by Thanksgiving week. Although I don't know how that would pertain to us having a GOM southern slider or a GOM Miller A storm system impacting us sometime around the 26-27th timeframe. Also GFS and EURO both show something developing in the GOM around that time period, allowing me to think that we see a miller A or southern slider. GFS is a little warm as it has the arctic jet bottled up in Canada, while the EURO unleashes the hounds of the arctic on New England. There is still another week plus of model watching, but the teleconnections are changing so there is a chance we see some type of storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Well, the Euro package certainly came out in support of the polar-arctic outbreak.. Probably impacts the area after the 21st or 22nd. According to NIC, all of Canada is snow covered. Also noticing that many interior bodies of water have iced over.. More evidence of the state of the cryosphere, and how effective it may be for cold transport by lowering moderation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 ec and gfs ens means are impressively cold...wish those anomalies were set up for late dec - mid jan...that would be 04-esque cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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