ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 Just hope we can hold it a few for 10 more runs to make sure it's imminent Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Kevin, are you jealous of Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Kevin, are you jealous of Chicago?yeah man. Would love to be out there today. But they will be jealous of us a week from now while we shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Fixed. Lol and that's on a model only run twice a day...only 20 more runs of the GFS to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Still a yo yo on the ensembles as the 12z EC ensembles corrected a bit from the cold 00z run next weekend. The ensembles have a wave along the front it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Shop online but if a 9 year old girls wants to try on clothes, it's a great bonding experience with mom an daughter alone. They'll have that in a couple weeks when they make the annual birthday drive to Newton to go to the American Girl store. Thank God that's a hundred miles away. One of those dolls costs a dollar per mile. To the weather--Will's joking 'fix' to ten runs is all too true. I think it's safe to say that the pattern--if it plays out as most models are showing--are ripe for some type of event. But this far out, I'd be reluctant to put any stock in any single system as portrayed. I know people are posting comments as verbatum reads to the models. But at this time frame, I'm more in 'pattern mode' rather than anything specific. Meanwhile, what a crappy day. 45.5/44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Still a yo yo on the ensembles as the 12z EC ensembles corrected a bit from the cold 00z run next weekend. The ensembles have a wave along the front it appears. when do EUROSIP run for November come out, assuming it didn't already? thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 when do EUROSIP run for November come out, assuming it didn't already? thx They did. I forgot about them. I'm not able to look at the moment but I will shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 They did. I forgot about them. I'm not able to look at the moment but I will shortly. us weenies have to keep you pro mets on your toes lol thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Still a yo yo on the ensembles as the 12z EC ensembles corrected a bit from the cold 00z run next weekend. The ensembles have a wave along the front it appears. i feel like its a precarious set-up with the PV and trough axis where it is. if we lose any of those higher heights poking into the arctic circle north of alaska the PV will be/is too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Are they still wintry looking or are they mild cold mild cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Still a yo yo on the ensembles as the 12z EC ensembles corrected a bit from the cold 00z run next weekend. The ensembles have a wave along the front it appears.interestingly colder than the OP on the Tuesday cold, still shows day seven snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Are they still wintry looking or are they mild cold mild cold?850 Date Minimum Mean 17.11.2013 12 GMT 8.5 °C 18.11.2013 12 GMT -1.9 °C 19.11.2013 12 GMT -6.8 °C 20.11.2013 12 GMT 0.1 °C 21.11.2013 12 GMT 0.7 °C 22.11.2013 12 GMT 0.0 °C 23.11.2013 12 GMT -4.6 °C 24.11.2013 12 GMT -11.7 °C 25.11.2013 12 GMT -11.3 °C 26.11.2013 12 GMT -7.4 °C 27.11.2013 12 GMT -7.7 °C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 After late this week when we warm up a bit, it is pretty cold the rest of the run, though definitely not a lock beyond T-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 After late this week when we warm up a bit, it is pretty cold the rest of the run, though definitely not a lock beyond T-day.40's Fri/ Sat ahead of fropa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 40's Fri/ Sat ahead of fropa? Friday def looks like 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 i feel like its a precarious set-up with the PV and trough axis where it is. if we lose any of those higher heights poking into the arctic circle north of alaska the PV will be/is too far north. That why I'd like to see some sort of a -NAO appear, but we are very PAC dependent at the moment since a -NAO doesn't really show itself much in the 11-15 day. I also wonder if the mean is too smoothed one way or another. I highly doubt we stay as static as the mean shows in terms of thicknesses for that long in the 11-15 day. I do think it offers some storms as shown and the cold source is not too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 850 Date Minimum Mean 17.11.2013 12 GMT 8.5 °C 18.11.2013 12 GMT -1.9 °C 19.11.2013 12 GMT -6.8 °C 20.11.2013 12 GMT 0.1 °C 21.11.2013 12 GMT 0.7 °C 22.11.2013 12 GMT 0.0 °C 23.11.2013 12 GMT -4.6 °C 24.11.2013 12 GMT -11.7 °C 25.11.2013 12 GMT -11.3 °C 26.11.2013 12 GMT -7.4 °C 27.11.2013 12 GMT -7.7 °C Looks a little nipply on a couple of those days. What locale is that? 40's Fri/ Sat ahead of fropa? BOX is calling for lower 40's on Friday, mid 30's on Saturday for GC (and upper 20's Sunday). But, this far out, take it with more than a grain of salt. 45.7/45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 That why I'd like to see some sort of a -NAO appear, but we are very PAC dependent at the moment since a -NAO doesn't really show itself much in the 11-15 day. I also wonder if the mean is too smoothed one way or another. I highly doubt we stay as static as the mean shows in terms of thicknesses for that long in the 11-15 day. I do think it offers some storms as shown and the cold source is not too far away. yeah. and i suppose beggars can't be choosers either. i'd like to see the core of that vortex further SE but eh...we'll see how where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2013 Author Share Posted November 17, 2013 yeah. and i suppose beggars can't be choosers either. i'd like to see the core of that vortex further SE but eh...we'll see how where it goes. Considering the time of the year, its pretty good. Hard to get the PV as far south this time of the year. This definitely looks like it has potential for the most impressive November airmass to hit the CONUS in probably at least a decade...maybe 2000? We'll obviously have to see how it trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 when do EUROSIP run for November come out, assuming it didn't already? thx -EPO still prevalent with ridging over the West Coast and Central US as well. Heights over Greenland appear to be average so no significant blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Cape Cod Max living out in Indiana now, chasing tornados captures one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 -EPO still prevalent with ridging over the West Coast and Central US as well. Heights over Greenland appear to be average so no significant blocking.sweet, cold drill into NE,gonna be a cold one this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 sweet, cold drill into NE,gonna be a cold one this year ...so it seems . Just going off my gut feeling here but wouldn't be surprised if we get drilled second half of winter. I think most mets/weenies have been saying that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 sweet, cold drill into NE,gonna be a cold one this year I've always thought the cold would be impressive this year. Qpf is the wild card to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I've always thought the cold would be impressive this year. Qpf is the wild card to me. I agree. SIPS aren't hinting at anything really but it could take just 1-2 blockbuster storms to put that thought to rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I've always thought the cold would be impressive this year. Qpf is the wild card to me.yes, overperforming, this long advertised four day torch, + 1 ,+ 5,+ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 I agree. SIPS aren't hinting at anything really but it could take just 1-2 blockbuster storms to put that thought to rest.exactly mix up some STJ and a clipper, boom boom pow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 Jerry our Giants look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2013 Share Posted November 17, 2013 SIPS is nice. Had what appears to be a nice -EPO with the PV over ern/SE Hudson Bay. Would appear that it's a good position to drive some cold air at times, but heights are not abnormal here so probably a bit of a ying and yang perhaps? Bit of a QPF max se of Nova Scotia...maybe indicating coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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