CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Seasons in seasons. Wintry (cold) start to met winter is the biggest signal now. I'm not completely sold on big cold just yet. I do think it may avg colder than normal, but not sure the hammer drops consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Ensembles develop a wave right over us this weekend. Looks like a PF special. Perhaps we can get something to accumulate before any changeover. Man though, looks like PF may clean up on upslope. If we can manage a couple of inches on the ground, that could have some impact on the sharpness of any colder air mass that may follow I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I'm not completely sold on big cold just yet. I do think it may avg colder than normal, but not sure the hammer drops consistently. Let's save the hammer until we find ruggie. Seriously it's early, cold on average with a more locked in look in 3-4 weeks is optimal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Let's save the hammer until we find ruggie. Seriously it's early, cold on average with a more locked in look in 3-4 weeks is optimal to me. Well don't get me wrong..I like the overall look. Models are still a little unsure with how the PAC shakes out I think (GEFS best EC ok), but I won't complain at all. This is probably going to be one of those deals where the op runs have the idea of the swings in temps. For instance, ensembles show a high building down, but only 534 thicknesses....in reality there is spread, so if that pattern were to happen...it may be like 522 thicknesses. Or, models have a low going overhead but 540 thicknesses. In reality, it's probably 546 or greater. I've found that sometimes what's more important on the ensembles is the overall height pattern and MSLP look. Of course there will be spread so don't take it verbatim...but I've found a lot of clues in those features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Perhaps we can get something to accumulate before any changeover. Man though, looks like PF may clean up on upslope. If we can manage a couple of inches on the ground, that could have some impact on the sharpness of any colder air mass that may follow I suppose. It still may go out underneath us so there is hope..esp for you. My best guess for now is some sort of SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Finally heavy heavy rain at home it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 To rain. On extreme coast. interior snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On extreme coast. interior snow LOL, not as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 LOL, not as shown. ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUSH THE WAVE CLOSEST TO SHORE...SUGGESTING THAT SOME RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE WITH EVEN ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 And the overall look is stormier too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUSH THE WAVE CLOSEST TO SHORE...SUGGESTING THAT SOME RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE WITH EVEN ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. Yes, then to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Actually, CT barely gets any snow. I-90 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Finally heavy heavy rain at home it seems. Enjoy it while it lasts--blasts right on through. At least after the passage you begin to get a little separation from the temps/dp's. 54.1/51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 On extreme coast. interior snow And then to rain--but way too soon to really care at this point. Let's see how it looks on Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Well it could move south, but right now it's for the reindeer sweaters of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Well it could move south, but right now it's for the reindeer sweaters of NNE. What do you think chances are it comes back south? We don't need a 35 rainer while Freak prances with the deer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I'm hoping Tolland is experiencing heavy snow as I drive through along 84 the day before thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 What do you think chances are it comes back south? We don't need a 35 rainer while Freak prances with the deer Well that would be seasons performing as seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 What do you think chances are it comes back south? We don't need a 35 rainer while Freak prances with the deer Scott's going to be rockin' come this weekend into early next week. Great start for the resorts. 53.8/51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 What do you think chances are it comes back south? We don't need a 35 rainer while Freak prances with the deer Well again if this were later in the season, it probably would be offshore as shown. There is a pretty good ridge punching into Greenland from the east and a ridge out over the coast of western Canada. However, there is an existing ridge over the SE and the pattern shown probably is not going to get much further south than maybe SE MA? It's still far out, but just my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Wow, 06z GEFS epic weenie pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Well again if this were later in the season, it probably would be offshore as shown. There is a pretty good ridge punching into Greenland from the east and a ridge out over the coast of western Canada. However, there is an existing ridge over the SE and the pattern shown probably is not going to get much further south than maybe SE MA? It's still far out, but just my guess. Way, way far out. We should begin to see fewer wild modeling swings over the next few days, and hopefully they'll play in our favor. I'd love to see a fast-forming Miller B. They tend to perform well in GC. Sky's clearing here at the Pit. 53.8/51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Way, way far out. We should begin to see fewer wild modeling swings over the next few days, and hopefully they'll play in our favor. I'd love to see a fast-forming Miller B. They tend to perform well in GC. Sky's clearing here at the Pit. 53.8/51 We all hope we can see pics of your barn in the snow....really really hope to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 We all hope we can see pics of your barn in the snow....really really hope to see that. I really really hope I can take a picture of it. If I can figure out how, I might hook up a webcam to link to my Wunderground statoin. Give me the opportunity to see what's happening while I'm traveling for work and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Enjoy it while it lasts--blasts right on through. At least after the passage you begin to get a little separation from the temps/dp's. 54.1/51 Any rain is good. 7 acre brush fire in Greenfield/Leyden Saturday. Could see smoke almost all the way to Northampton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 We all hope we can see pics of your barn in the snow....really really hope to see that. I'm sure you'll be even happier to see the daily pics of PF's snow stick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Any rain is good. 7 acre brush fire in Greenfield/Leyden Saturday. Could see smoke almost all the way to Northampton. I missed that. I guess the wind must have had it blowing away from me. I know you're up toward Colrain--how far are you from where the fire was? 52.8/51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I'm sure you'll be even happier to see the daily pics of PF's snow stick... I really hope the snow stick and GC get buried this year. I mean I literally wake up in the middle of the night hoping for the best knowing how vital it is to the economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 I really hope the snow stick and GC get buried this year. I mean I literally wake up in the middle of the night hoping for the best knowing how vital it is to the economy. This was the best first post to read of the day ever, haha. It just made my day to know how concerned you are. Everyone wakes up in the middle of the night worried about the snowfall in other areas of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 This was the best first post to read of the day ever, haha. It just made my day to know how concerned you are. Everyone wakes up in the middle of the night worried about the snowfall in other areas of New England. It's all in good fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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