toronto blizzard Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Well in his defense and after looking at the H5 anomalies on the euro ensembles..it isn't technically a -EPO. It's sort of a split flow look with a ridge in the Aleutians and above AK, trough over AK and a +PNA. So it's a weird kind of look, but a good one.In the 11-15 day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Then the 12z today will come in cold again Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 In the 11-15 day? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Another several days of warm weather en route. Not really much of any cold shot next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Or not.Nah they will believe me. The mjo forcing is really toying with the ensembles as they haven't remained consistent at all on a run to run basis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 Nah they will believe me. The mjo forcing is really toying with the ensembles as they haven't remained consistent at all on a run to run basis Sorry if we remain skeptical and wait for the 12z ensembles to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Nah they will believe me. The mjo forcing is really toying with the ensembles as they haven't remained consistent at all on a run to run basis So does that mean the 12z is right and the 00z is wrong? LOL. I honestly would hold any wintry expectations until December. If late November works out..consider it a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Another several days of warm weather en route. Not really much of any cold shot next week. Yeah a coupe days of 30's is failry warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Yeah a coupe days of 30's is failry warm Meh, maybe one in the higher elevations. No big deal and then we warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Sorry if we remain skeptical and wait for the 12z ensembles to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 So does that mean the 12z is right and the 00z is wrong? LOL. I honestly would hold any wintry expectations until December. If late November works out..consider it a bonus.I'm just saying I think the mjo is having an impact on the ensembles flipping. Even the GFS ensembles keep flipping around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 I'm just saying I think the mjo is having an impact on the ensembles flipping. Even the GFS ensembles keep flipping around. That doesn't mean the colder solution is right....the tropics is definitely affecting the models, but we don't know which solution is exactly right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Meh, maybe one in the higher elevations. No big deal and then we warm up.Into the 40's and then wintry threat day 9 or 10 on Euro and ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I'm just saying I think the mjo is having an impact on the ensembles flipping. Even the GFS ensembles keep flipping around. Yes so take a dose of your own medicine and not rush in cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Into the 40's and then wintry threat day 9 or 10 on Euro and ens Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Well in his defense and after looking at the H5 anomalies on the euro ensembles..it isn't technically a -EPO. It's sort of a split flow look with a ridge in the Aleutians and above AK, trough over AK and a +PNA. So it's a weird kind of look, but a good one. I was talking about this statement However all the data continues to show that the strong +EPO (a extremely strong and large positive 500 MB height anomaly ) over the the Aleutian islands… is continuing to retrograde Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 41 in Bos, 19 orange lol that time of year. huge variation this morning around SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 So does that mean the 12z is right and the 00z is wrong? LOL. I honestly would hold any wintry expectations until December. If late November works out..consider it a bonus. Yeah anything before December is an absolute steal. I'd hedge toward a few weeks into December for anything serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Another several days of warm weather en route. Not really much of any cold shot next week. ?? every Ens model has -5 to -8 850's, thats pretty cold for Nov??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I was talking about this statement However all the data continues to show that the strong +EPO (a extremely strong and large positive 500 MB height anomaly ) over the the Aleutian islands… is continuing to retrograde Well a -EPO has more of an AK and off the west coast of Canada ridge...not exactly an Aleutian ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 ?? every Ens model has -5 to -8 850's, thats pretty cold for Nov??? The anomalies are about -5C for 24-30hrs. NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I think DT is also mixing stuff up, but who gives a sh*t about the definition and bar graphs. Look at the anomalies for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 So the EC ensembles still look good ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 The anomalies are about -5C for 24-30hrs. NBD. Boy my point and click is dead wrong then, my daily average is around 43 my PC shows a 33 degree average Tues Wed Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 ^ This ..I'm not in full agreement with the more i learn the less i know part, i guess it applies sometimes...but the rest of what you said couldn't have summed it up any better. I didn't get where he was going with that +EPO talk at all either. I also don't understand the first sentence in his write-up. Cant understand for the life of him why people forecasting warmth? I respect his opinion to go colder but what is his reasoning. Word has it he doesn't buy into the SAI argument? i only mean it in the sense of the "peeling an onion" analogy...like if you want to be well-versed in coastal erosion, just as an example, it's a very complex interaction of multiple sciences. it's not just wind + waves = erosion...if you know what i mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Boy my point and click is dead wrong then, my daily average is around 43 my PC shows a 33 degree average Tues Wed Thursday. HIghs in the low 40s heading into later November is certainly NBD. Nobody said it wasn't a cold shot, it just won't be terribly impressive IMO. Then we may mild up again. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 So the EC ensembles still look good ? If you take the look and add the fact it may be rushed, yes they looked fine. We've said that for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 The rains on Monday are sadly vanishing . Models went from an inch or more down to under .50. Not good negative. euro had widespread .75-1" totals over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 negative. euro had widespread .75-1" totals over SNE. Hopefully it verifies. I would rather see a slow moving latitudinal trough move in and deliver those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 GFS is not impressive with the rain either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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