CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Its just the usual early season optimism... hard to not get a little excited by finally getting a good cold shot or two in here in early/mid November. The mood would be different if it was like 60F every single day. Even Blizz was worried in October when it was warm. Seems that way. We'll see what the residence time is of the ridging in the WPO / EPO regions. I agree we wouldn't want to see a big hole in the atmosphere locking in there this time of year, but by the same token...if it holds for another 4 weeks...we aren't even at Christmas yet. I'd probably wait at least a month before getting a feel for the DJFM period and even that won't hold all the answers. It certainly wants to perhaps start out fun, but people forget about those abrupt turnarounds we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Sorry, I'm not being a Debbie...just trying to keep things in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 To be fair, I've been honking big cold since early summer so if it's not too early in July it's not too early in November...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 A sfar as very late month and early December go, don't be shocked if it seems like a painstaking step down process. I would not be shocked at all if that happened. If the ensembles are right, don't be shocked at a cutter, then redeveloper overhead, maybe SWFE...etc. Each low slowly bleeds colder air in with a further east track. I could envision that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I'll be shocked if we don't have 2 snow events before the holiday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 A sfar as very late month and early December go, don't be shocked if it seems like a painstaking step down process. I would not be shocked at all if that happened. If the ensembles are right, don't be shocked at a cutter, then redeveloper overhead, maybe SWFE...etc. Each low slowly bleeds colder air in with a further east track. I could envision that. I don't see that as being bad at all actually. It's what I've envisioned all along. Get into late December and then we want a pattern with stronger legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I'll be shocked if we don't have 2 snow events before the holiday You also said you'd be shocked if we didn't get the first snow event of the season between Oct 25-Nov 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I would go with one shot at snow before Thanksgiving, then one afterwards. This pattern doesn't seem like anything more than transient. The ridges and troughs look progressive with the exception being around the 26th where a big coastal storm could become something, but again that is real long range. However teleconnections are beginning to have some support in the Day 12 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I'll be shocked if we don't have 2 snow events before the holiday You also said you'd be shocked if we didn't get the first snow event of the season between Oct 25-Nov 5. Well depends what holiday. That's an easy goalpost to move...I'm pretty sure well have 2 snow events before President's Day too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Well depends what holiday. That's an easy goalpost to move...I'm pretty sure well have 2 snow events before President's Day too. lol true. Knowing the original poster's style, I assumed he meant Thanksgiving. But I bit the line he cast out...lol. He's great at those one liners to initiate discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Well depends what holiday. That's an easy goalpost to move...I'm pretty sure well have 2 snow events before President's Day too. Lol...you'd have barely made it 2 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 My wunderground app is putting snow icons out next weekend. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Sounds like weeklies looked great. Bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 lol true. Knowing the original poster's style, I assumed he meant Thanksgiving. But I bit the line he cast out...lol. He's great at those one liners to initiate discussion. I think those of us don't that live on top of picnic tables at 4k will get 2 snows before we cut the bird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I think those of us don't that live on top of picnic tables at 4k will get 2 snows before we cut the bird Maybe 3-4 snow chances before T-Day. Probably half the season total by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I think those of us don't that live on top of picnic tables at 4k will get 2 snows before we cut the bird Nice to see you are confident. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Lol...you'd have barely made it 2 years ago. Haha true. Though I actually made out relatively OK in that horror show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 It's November 14th. A lot of confidence on here for so early.For end of Nov and beginning of Dec sure. Taking it six weeks at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Nah, go cold or go home.Meh weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 As Will just told me....look up Dec 2005 and see what can happen. Too early for those Dead Sea Scrolls to proclaim winter will be epic.You are really making stuff up, who is saying epic? Like the look Debra, sorry have a right to our opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjr Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I think those of us don't that live on top of picnic tables at 4k will get 2 snows before we cut the bird Kevin they still have time to get onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 You are really making stuff up, who is saying epic? Like the look Debra, sorry have a right to our opinions. The connotations I guess. Nobody said you were right or wrong. The scrolls will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Remember the posts end of October and the concerns and worries. Canada looks great never did torch like some thought. Weeklies look fantastic, Ens look good, just need some precip. Nobody on here can say with any skills what the entire winter will be like but damn son give me the progged next 4 weeks anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Remember the posts end of October and the concerns and worries. Canada looks great never did torch like some thought. Weeklies look fantastic, Ens look good, just need some precip. Nobody on here can say with any skills what the entire winter will be like but damn son give me the progged next 4 weeks anytime. I wonder if Harvey Leonard thought the same in Nov '89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 All fun and ribbing aside, the overall look is pretty good to start December. Can we tell if a storm will go over the benchmark or through Buffalo...no, but it looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 The connotations I guess. Nobody said you were right or wrong. The scrolls will tell.The more I read your posts the more I understand the deep scars of childhood winter change to rains remain. Every post has a caveat, it's OK man sometimes it doesn't work out the way we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 The more I read your posts the more I understand the deep scars of childhood winter change to rains remain. Every post has a caveat, it's OK man sometimes it doesn't work out the way we want. RI OES will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 All fun and ribbing aside, the overall look is pretty good to start December. Can we tell if a storm will go over the benchmark or through Buffalo...no, but it looks good.if we get a storm, my biggest concern is a MPM PF fetishes precip deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 RI OES will save us.Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 The more I read your posts the more I understand the deep scars of childhood winter change to rains remain. Every post has a caveat, it's OK man sometimes it doesn't work out the way we want.He will always have his strapping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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