ABOUT THE XMAS DAY EVENT/ THREAT issues to be considered

[PhineasC]

At this point the Models do seem to have come to a decent agreement that there will be at least an over running event for the Mid Atlantic. Will it be snow/rain/ice is yet to be determined.

I don't think rain or ice are a threat north of Richmond.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I don't think rain or ice are a threat north of Richmond.

I don't either. I haven't see any model bring enough warmth up this way for anything but snow. Now, I don't get to see everything, but I feel pretty comfortable in just hoping for precipitation.

[winter_warlock]

I don't think rain or ice are a threat north of Richmond.

me neither, i think its all snow from dc north through baltimore into phili

[aldie 22]

Still could be an all nothing event as well....best part is even if it is a nothing event there will still be family and food around for comfort.

[ravensrule]

Still could be an all nothing event as well....best part is even if it is a nothing event there will still be family and food around for comfort.

But without snow who cares about family .

[aldie 22]

But without snow who cares about family .

True but a food induced coma can make you forget about everything

[Bob Chill]

I'm not too worried about an all or nothing on this one. Some overrunning looks inevitable. Cyclogenesis and the track are always difficult to pinpoint this far out. Maybe the models lock on to a similar solution and stick to it all week.? Is that even possible? lol

[Yeoman]

This xmas storm if it does happen will be a moderate event. But I still feel the New Years Eve Storm will be the Real Deal !

Thank you for your contribution oh wise swami

[Guest someguy]

I wouldnt trust any model right now. Look what the models did with the mecs we where suppose to have today and tomorrow. It brought it then took it away then brought and took it away..... Be careful guys

not relvant.

its like saying well your car didnt start.

therefore cars are useless

[Voyager]

Down here, I like our odds of getting snow for christmas and there is potential for a good snowstorm but it's way too early to jump on amounts and qpf.

So Wes, what do you see for areas to the north, such as East Central PA toward the I-81 corridor? A decent hit, or a minimal impact?

[Guest someguy]

00Z DEC 20 GFS blinked

MODEL 1 says ABC

MODEL 2 says XYZ

MODEL 3 says XYZ

MODEL 4 says XYZ

MODEL 5 says xyz

MODEL 1 says ABC for 12 runs in a row

MODEL1 ensembles over the 12 Model runs says XYZ

MODEL 2 ensembles over the past 8 model runs all say XYZ

MODEL 3 ensembles all say XYZ for 8 runs in a row

then MODEL 1 new runs out and says XYZ

what does that tell us ?

[gkrangers]

By that logic, the GGEM blinked too, just with the other eye.

[Guest someguy]

FIRST Model 1 is NOT very good in general or Handling this event

SECOND that the XYZ solution is far More likey than ABC

THIRD ..... that solution ABC is NOT a Viable solution even if MODEL 1 were to " flip flop" later on

[gkrangers]

so you think the GGEM has been showing a closed 500 low with a MSLP of 979 MB Just off the Nj c oast for 12 runs?

sorry but that gibberish

keep trying

No, no, the opposite. Been suppressed, right? Now it shows a bomb. The GFS flipped in one direction, the GEM in the other.

[Guest someguy]

No, no, the opposite. Been suppressed, right? Now it shows a bomb. The GFS flipped in one direction, the GEM in the other.

wow ... you are not even close to getting this are you e

the BOMB on the 0z CMC is from eastern NC to south of the BM

that isnt the issue

heck even the euro says that it will at SOME point Bomb out

the issues was the super bombs of the GFS

[hazwoper]

wow ... you are not even close to getting this are you e

the BOMB on the 0z CMC is from eastern NC to south of the BM

that isnt the issue

heck even the euro says that it will at SOME point Bomb out

the issues was the super bombs of the GFS

who gives a damn. models all pointing to a decent event ON Christmas. Snow on Christmas. I (and moston this board) could care less if it was a bomb.

[Feb]

wow ... you are not even close to getting this are you e

the BOMB on the 0z CMC is from eastern NC to south of the BM

that isnt the issue

heck even the euro says that it will at SOME point Bomb out

the issues was the super bombs of the GFS

So if on December 26th the GFS ends up being right and you're wrong will you admit it?

[Midlo Snow Maker]

who gives a damn. models all pointing to a decent event ON Christmas. Snow on Christmas. I (and moston this board) could care less if it was a bomb.

cliff notes for those who have missed todays runs

the gfs has been showing a massive phase with a massive storm on the coast. all other models have not been showing this massive phase over the US, and have not had a bomb on the coast now the 0z has stepped back away from this massive phase over the US, which DT has been saying all day it was probably wrong

[Jebman]

To make a long story short ---- The more complicated a storm is - THE MORE LIKELY IT WILL NOT PAN OUT.

I'd stake my very LIFE on that.

If it does pan out - I'll take some snow. If it does not pan out - I promise I won't jump off the 14th street bridge at 230am (at a time when it will not hold up traffic).

There will be other storms.

Hell - IF I truly wanted snow on Christmas - I'd vacation in Mammoth Mountain for Christmas. They're getting at least a foot of snow for Christmas.

[Guest someguy]

So if on December 26th the GFS ends up being right and you're wrong will you admit it?

yeah that is why the 0z euro and 0z ggem are Now in agree emntn have the low coming up from the Deep south?

simply b/c I thought ---and still think the GFS solutuion was BS ------that i am against snow ?

[SnowGoose69]

The thing is the speed of the system impacted by the Euro's bias out west could ultimately causing the resultant Euro solution, obviously if that timing evolution is off the entire thing is out the window.

[NJwinter23]

How did the euro ensembles look?

[am19psu]

How did the euro ensembles look?

A bit farther west than the 12z ensemble, still has a ton of spread.

[Kmlwx]

A bit farther west than the 12z ensemble, still has a ton of spread.

Though I'm sure that's to be expected at this point in the game still a ways out.

[JBG]

the -ao is lower than we ever saw it in a strong La Nina...Last year the blocking was as strong but the storms were juicy...It looks like the storm track is further south and the storms are wimpy...The fall had a few coastal storms that tracked in a good spot for winter snows and usually a storm track like that returns some time during the winter...i still have hopes for February and some snow by months end...I'm hoping we don't end up like Dec. 54...

How did December 1954 wind up?

And overall I agree with your analysis. La Niña kills off the Miller A track and thus makes it that much harder for a big storm to happen.

[uncle W]

How did December 1954 wind up?

And overall I agree with your analysis. La Niña kills off the Miller A track and thus makes it that much harder for a big storm to happen.

it was -1.2 for the 1971-00 normals and only 0.1" of snow was measured...

[Amped]

it was -1.2 for the 1971-00 normals and only 0.1" of snow was measured...

Usually but this time a decent southern S/W will sneak through.

[varicweather]

RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA

800 AM PST MON DEC 20 2010

...MANY RECORD MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION RECORDS SET YESTERDAY...

STATION NAME NEW RECORD OLD RECORD AND YEAR

--------------------------------------------------------------

LOS ANGELES INT`L AIRPORT 2.23 INCHES 1.62" IN 1984

DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES 2.80 INCHES 2.12" IN 1921

LONG BEACH AIRPORT 2.07 INCHES 0.52" IN 1984

SAN GABRIEL 2.96 INCHES 1.90" IN 1970

SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT 2.79 INCHES 1.75" IN 1964

SANTA MARIA AIRPORT 2.13 INCHES 0.95" IN 1984

SAN LUIS OBISPO CAL POLY 1.80 INCHES 1.37" IN 1970

Is it not unusual that these records would be broken in a moderate la nina year? That's what makes this pattern so remarkable.

And why records may be set the xmas storm for the 25th and 26th of December.

[Bob Chill]

What is happening out west is very unusual for a Nina. I worked for a ski area in CO for 7 years (92-99) and this type of precip event is common in a Nino but certainly not in a Nina. Deep plume of moisture into SoCal and hitting CO on a SW flow is the exact opposite of what we typically saw. Typical Ninas brought storms in the Pac NW and moisture into the CO rockies on a NW flow. This was great for the N half of the CO mtns but usually left the S half in a much drier regime. The S mountains are getting pummeled right now with this system. However, most early season snows this year in the CO rockies has favored the N half so that is more typical of a Nina. Either way, this storm is a monster for the mountains out west. CO is expecting widespread 3-5 feet of snow with PWAT in the 5" range. Uncommonly wet snow for CO.

Of course, now I'm only interested in seeing what this storm does when it makes it to the east coast. I like the odds of at least an overrunning event in the MA. A coastal would be awesome but at least it looks like a really good chance of seeing accum snow on Xmas.

[kurtstack]

Looks like that shortwave out west means BUSINESS! If it can bowl across the country and phase in time for the east coast cities things could be very interesting this weekend.