December 24-25 Snowstorm

[KokomoWX]

This storm is dead to me.

[Stevo6899]

Amen

We got the euro right where we want it. 4-5 days before last weekends snowstorm it was nearly the same spot in the SE. If it phases earlier it could come west. Although this time around the block is further west I believe, not sure though.

[Hoosier]

I think everyone needs to take a step back here. Yeah the trends aren't good but we have seen the models pull this before and then try to revert back toward the original solution as it gets closer (partially if not all the way). My thoughts are to still keep an eye on this around the OV for a decent snow event. North of I-70 especially eastward in IL/IN/OH is more problematic with a lower chance of coming back to a more favorable solution.

The lake effect signal off of Lake Michigan is interesting and of particular interest since I will be in the area for Christmas . May take a generalized early crack at that shortly.

[Amos83]

I think it is KMWA right? WMA looks wrong haha.

Looks like .05" Friday morning then another 0.04" overnight into Saturday morning.

Thanks! Yes KMWA is correct

[JoMo]

It's like Groundhog Day on the Euro, always around hr 144ish on every run.

[TheWeatherPimp]

I'm curious as to what the 12z and 0z UKMET will show for some reason. It seems to do better with phasing issues and doesn't have nearly the bias the EURO does with hanging to much energy back to the SW.

[JoMo]

I'm curious as to what the 12z and 0z UKMET will show for some reason. It seems to do better with phasing issues and doesn't have nearly the bias the EURO does with hanging to much energy back to the SW.

It's slower than the Euro, big bomb on the east coast.

[BeastFromTheEast]

I'm kind of torn, big east coast bombs often do set up are best LE events, but on the flip side, "best LE events" on this side is really only a couple inches and i don't like the implications are large, slow NE low has for our chances down the road. I'm hoping it goes OTS off the coast of Jacksonville, FL.

Try 14 inches.. Also a big storm on the east coast with that one too...

http://www.wisn.com/...926/detail.html

http://cimss.ssec.wi...g/archives/2061

[Chicago WX]

I'm kind of torn, big east coast bombs often do set up are best LE events, but on the flip side, "best LE events" on this side is really only a couple inches and i don't like the implications are large, slow NE low has for our chances down the road. I'm hoping it goes OTS off the coast of Jacksonville, FL.

Well even with 12z Euro EC bomb, it flushes the pattern thereafter and we torch something fierce days 9-10, so there you go.

[TheWeatherPimp]

Stole this from another thread, but JB holds his own about snow across the Ohio Valley

From JB's Tuesday Noon Update

This would put the heavier snow in the plains farther north, near I-70 all the way to around DC from Topeka with an area of 10 to 1 ratios near the -3 isotherm but then 20 to 30 to one near -8 at 5k. Hence the idea of the 6- to 12-inch band. The idea then is the turn northeast. Obviously, given the model uncertainty and the bust I had, you probably won't trust that.

[Hoosier]

Try 14 inches.. Also a big storm on the east coast with this one too...

http://www.wisn.com/weather/18830926/detail.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/2061

Big LES events can and do occur on the western side, just not really often. I can't recall a huge pure LES event in northeast IL in quite some time but I could be forgetting something.

[weatherbo]

Amen

There's very little to hope on up this way. I know it's pretty far out still, but thinking otherwise is just setting yourself up for disappointment, IMO.

[A-L-E-K]

Try 14 inches.. Also a big storm on the east coast with this one too...

http://www.wisn.com/...926/detail.html

http://cimss.ssec.wi...g/archives/2061

Extreme anomaly and highly localized, not something i'd hang my hat on. West side LE evets are largely lame.

Well even with 12z Euro EC bomb, it flushes the pattern thereafter and we torch something fierce days 9-10, so there you go.

good, i'm ready for a reset, i'm ready for a good old fashioned cutter in the worst way.

Big LES events can and do occur on the western side, just not really often. I can't recall a huge pure LES event in northeast IL in quite some time but I could be forgetting something.

The MKE single band was hyper rare. NE Illinois does best lake-wise when mesolows spin ashore.

[pondo1000]

Stole this from another thread, but JB holds his own about snow across the Ohio Valley

From JB's Tuesday Noon Update

This would put the heavier snow in the plains farther north, near I-70 all the way to around DC from Topeka with an area of 10 to 1 ratios near the -3 isotherm but then 20 to 30 to one near -8 at 5k. Hence the idea of the 6- to 12-inch band. The idea then is the turn northeast. Obviously, given the model uncertainty and the bust I had, you probably won't trust that.

What is he referring to when he says "this"? Is that the Euro, GFS, what? Thanks!

[snowstormcanuck]

this is not supposed to be millerA KU climo either though. There's additional factor here....not just the timing of the sw, but how quickly that northern stream can drop in..... it's an incredible long shot but it's all we got lol

Hopefully Harry's around to dish out the EURO ensembles. You at least want a handfull in your camp to give the Apps runner idea at least some semblance of credibility.

12z GGEM ensembles are fugly though. Most are well east of the OP run. I-95ers would cringe.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Big LES events can and do occur on the western side, just not really often. I can't recall a huge pure LES event in northeast IL in quite some time but I could be forgetting something.

Skilling had a question from a reader on this a few weeks ago.

http://fwix.com/chic...fect_snow_event

1973: 5-12 inches with 2 feet up near Green Bay..

It is rare though.. To many things need to be perfect..

[buckeye]

What is he referring to when he says "this"? Is that the Euro, GFS, what? Thanks!

the interesting thing about jb's post is he can't really have it both ways. In other words he wants to paint a swath of 6-12 along i-70 right to DC...But also wants the massive euro coastal. For that coastal to work out it will need to chug along slowly very far south screwing everyone here to the north.

[A-L-E-K]

Skilling had a question from a reader on this a few weeks ago.

http://fwix.com/chic...fect_snow_event

1973: 5-12 inches with 2 feet up near Green Bay..

It is rare though.. To many things need to be perfect..

Good find, wish there was more detail and background on the synoptic setup, he almost makes it sound like that was lake enhanced.

[buckeye]

Hopefully Harry's around to dish out the EURO ensembles. You at least want a handfull in your camp to give the Apps runner idea at least some semblance of credibility.

12z GGEM ensembles are fugly though. Most are well east of the OP run. I-95ers would cringe.

yea, the euro is definitely alone here....that's why i say if by tomorrow at this time we still don't see a concensus on at the very least a coastal hugger....the bus is air born.

just checked the always bullish jma, and it's ots as well.

[buckeye]

Hopefully Harry's around to dish out the EURO ensembles. You at least want a handfull in your camp to give the Apps runner idea at least some semblance of credibility.

12z GGEM ensembles are fugly though. Most are well east of the OP run. I-95ers would cringe.

one of the mets mentioned that last nite's euro ensembles had an inland runner or two.

[Baum]

Stole this from another thread, but JB holds his own about snow across the Ohio Valley

From JB's Tuesday Noon Update

This would put the heavier snow in the plains farther north, near I-70 all the way to around DC from Topeka with an area of 10 to 1 ratios near the -3 isotherm but then 20 to 30 to one near -8 at 5k. Hence the idea of the 6- to 12-inch band. The idea then is the turn northeast. Obviously, given the model uncertainty and the bust I had, you probably won't trust that.

duck...: :now!

[Organizing Low]

Meh, too close for me to give up.

timing and phasing, ahhh yes.....144 hours from our lattitude.

its a longshot, because it will have to be either historic, or it will miss IMO....

but yeah, id keep watching.

[The_Global_Warmer]

euro is brutal for us.

[dilly84]

Basically have lost hope, but I won't hop off of buckeyes bus yet.

[snowstormcanuck]

timing and phasing, ahhh yes.....144 hours from our lattitude.

its a longshot, because it will have to be either historic, or it will miss IMO....

but yeah, id keep watching.

Especially how far east you are, you probably need the EURO to shift west by a mm.

I'm just glad even the more wrapped up solutions eject the storm quickly east of the Maritimes rather than re-establish the block. Even if it means a few warm days, I'd rather have this pattern broken up. It's December 21 and I've had 1.3" of synoptic snow. It ain't working.

[LizardMafia]

Basically have lost hope, but I won't hop off of buckeyes bus yet.

Good grief, it's still 3 days away. Models are still all over the place, no one should be jumping or riding off the cliff.

[A-L-E-K]

Good grief, it's still 3 days away. Models are still all over the place, no one should be jumping or riding off the cliff.

I've had to read like 50 comments about this got damn bus today.

[dilly84]

I've had to read like 50 comments about this got damn bus today.

Deal with it, we have to look at that stupid kid everyday.

[JayPSU]

I've had to read like 50 comments about this got damn bus today.

I've had to read about 50 comments from you per day with that damn kid that I want to run over with buckeye's BUS. Anyway, continue...

[BeastFromTheEast]

I've had to read like 50 comments about this got damn bus today.