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November Banter Thread

H2O

By H2O,
in Mid Atlantic

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mappy

mappy

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I'm curious -- if you go through past events, Jan 2011 for example, what model picked it up first, did others catch on, did one or all lose it, only for it to come back?

 

I feel like this is a never ending repetitive loop, we as MA'ers are constantly going through with every. damn. event. that shows up on the models.

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H2O

H2O

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I can't keep all the rules for banter thread straight. No DT talk. Got it. Obsessive homophobic joking, that's okay. Will make a note of it. Sorry to offend with non-homophobic banter. Carry on with your various penis-related jokes.

 

The first rule of banter thread is not to speak about banter thread

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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I'm curious -- if you go through past events, Jan 2011 for example, what model picked it up first, did others catch on, did one or all lose it, only for it to come back?

 

I feel like this is a never ending repetitive loop, we as MA'ers are constantly going through with every. damn. event. that shows up on the models.

Because it pretty much is the situation every time.  

 

When model is on an island compared to every other model and ensembles, there's a reason to be highly skeptical.  Even if that model is the DT-approved World's Greatest Computer Model EVER.  Right now, when the shortwave is still ~96-120 hours away, the ensembles are still the way to go.  It's a fact that an ensemble mean will be the best forecast at Day 4+ more times than not.  When we're inside 4 days, and especially inside 3 days, then put your faith in the operational runs.  If say, the 0z Sunday (or maybe 12z tomorrow) Euro still has a big storm and everything else is showing a weak wave like the GFS, that will get my attention.  Until then, it's best to take a blend of the GFS and Euro ensembles.   

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H2O

H2O

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I'm curious -- if you go through past events, Jan 2011 for example, what model picked it up first, did others catch on, did one or all lose it, only for it to come back?

 

I feel like this is a never ending repetitive loop, we as MA'ers are constantly going through with every. damn. event. that shows up on the models.

 

 

It's also a matter of too much information being looked at by a majority of wrong people, myself included.  Because we can look at every model run we are quick to latch on to anything that looks the best without understanding why.  It gets to be too much cause we look at stuff for days and days hoping it will give us what we want.

 

Also to piggyback on what captain air force said(:wub:) most of our weather comes from complex setups which the models have a hard time handling.  Very rarely do we get easy ones to watch a la 09-10 where it was pretty much a given.  When those happen it seems that the models do a good job showing a storm and hanging onto it for the whole duration with minor jumps.  Lots of chess pieces means lots of different outcomes and it takes the models a few days to sort out the likely one.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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Very rarely do we get easy ones to watch a la 09-10 where it was pretty much a given.  When those happen it seems that the models do a good job showing a storm and hanging onto it for the whole duration with minor jumps.  Lots of chess pieces means lots of different outcomes and it takes the models a few days to sort out the likely one.

The Dec 09 storm and the Feb 5-6,2010 were just like a dream.  Unreal ensemble support at Days 5+...even like 8-9 days out.  It was if the universe was saying "this WILL happen no matter what".  Every run was so similar to the previous runs, minor differences at most each time (although each difference seemed to be to our benefit snow-wise).  

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H2O

H2O

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The Dec 09 storm and the Feb 5-6,2010 were just like a dream.  Unreal ensemble support at Days 5+...even like 8-9 days out.  It was if the universe was saying "this WILL happen no matter what".  Every run was so similar to the previous runs, minor differences at most each time (although each difference seemed to be to our benefit snow-wise).  

 

And the hangover from that winter still happens here all the time.  The thinking is that because the models did so well that winter they should always be able to.  We've now seen how that has worked out for us.

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mappy

mappy

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Because it pretty much is the situation every time.  

 

When model is on an island compared to every other model and ensembles, there's a reason to be highly skeptical.  Even if that model is the DT-approved World's Greatest Computer Model EVER.  Right now, when the shortwave is still ~96-120 hours away, the ensembles are still the way to go.  It's a fact that an ensemble mean will be the best forecast at Day 4+ more times than not.  When we're inside 4 days, and especially inside 3 days, then put your faith in the operational runs.  If say, the 0z Sunday (or maybe 12z tomorrow) Euro still has a big storm and everything else is showing a weak wave like the GFS, that will get my attention.  Until then, it's best to take a blend of the GFS and Euro ensembles.   

 

Thanks for the response! I understand how it all works, I just feel like we are ALWAYS going through this. 7-day threat, weenie hopes escalate, then die, then start to slowly rise as we get within day 3, then from there its usually a huge bust.

 

You'd think we would have learned our lesson by now

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Fozz

Fozz

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The models weren't perfect with all of them that year though.

 

The Jan 30 storm.......my forecast for Saturday at 7 AM Friday morning was for partly cloudy, 0% chance of snow, and by Sat afternoon there was about 7 inches of new snow at my house.

 

Let it go. 

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usedtobe

usedtobe

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And the hangover from that winter still happens here all the time.  The thinking is that because the models did so well that winter they should always be able to.  We've now seen how that has worked out for us.

 

 

The strong blocking present in the form of a strongly negative AO and NAO gave lots more wiggle room and that's one reason the modes were so much better with those storms, especially the feb one than during most storm threats.  Heck, I was even bullish on the pattern and storm, how often does that happen?

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