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We appear to near the threshold into a new pattern - good opportunity to start a new forecast/banter

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

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Just talking to folks and reading various online social media..people are very very excited and amped up for the coming hot pattern overall the next 30 days.Let's just get thru these next 2 days and we can celebrate summer the way it should be

Looks like a few hot days then back to troughs knocking down ridges in ne thereafter. Next 30 will probably average normal.

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Bostonseminole

Bostonseminole

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Just talking to folks and reading various online social media..people are very very excited and amped up for the coming hot pattern overall the next 30 days.Let's just get thru these next 2 days and we can celebrate summer the way it should be
people are just tired of the rain and will take anything at this point i doubt the excitement is long lived once the humidity comes in unless you live at the beach and 30 days? I don't think so
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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honestly I think the thread title is wrong, looks to me like a relaxation of the pattern then a reestablishment of trough.

 

Well its hard to say just how strong the trough comes back. Ensembles def have it returning by next weekend.

 

Next week will definitely be quite warm though. Euro isn't quite ready to make it a huge heat blast, but certainly a lot warmer than it has been, thats for sure. Staying on the northeast periphery of it though might be more exciting for severe potential anyway.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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The pattern change is very much afoot.  Having every ensemble member showing a +3SD modal change in the NAO, with the subtropical ridge rightly expanding underneath, can't really be defined a different way.  

 

People need to understand what a pattern change really means.  First of all, things can "look" similar,  but be entirely different.  

 

When/if the trough returns the circulation system overall is completely different than it is now, which duh duh dunnnn, is a different pattern!   

 

Secondly, I was pretty clear up front that heat was more confident in the Sunday - Wed time frame.    

 

Fact of the matter is, it is somewhat rarer at our latitude to get sustained heat -- though it has happened in the past, the impetus there is "somewhat." Having it warm up to a low end heat wave, then denting back for a couple days is quite understandable.   

 

The other thing, don't buy into the Euro beyond D8, at all.  That model flips/tilts the flow NW through Canada via 0 means or reason to do so.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Euro drives a cold front through on Wednesday now...so the end of next week looks a lot cooler.

 

This is actually a better setup though for severe. Wednesday could have decent potential if we get that front in here during the PM.

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