We appear to near the threshold into a new pattern - good opportunity to start a new forecast/banter

[ORH_wxman]

ORH 68F at 3pm....NYC 74F

 

Wasn't Kevin trying to pimp mid 70s for ORH today the other day? And telling Socks no chance NYC would be mid 70s?

[Damage In Tolland]

ORH 68F at 3pm....NYC 74F

Wasn't Kevin trying to pimp mid 70s for ORH today the other day? And telling Socks no chance NYC would be mid 70s?

Box had 75 for ORH today and I said NYC would hit 80 so wrong on that one but they still have a few hours till they reach their high

[free_man]

Euro drives a cold front through on Wednesday now...so the end of next week looks a lot cooler.

 

This is actually a better setup though for severe. Wednesday could have decent potential if we get that front in here during the PM.

Are Tuesday night storms a possibility on the Euro, with the warm front?

[ORH_wxman]

Box had 75 for ORH today and I said NYC would hit 80 so wrong on that one but they still have a few hours till they reach their high

 

 

They had 73 (I linked the p&c to the airport)...you were probably clicking on the lower elevation areas to get that 75.

 

But struggling to reach 70F was in the cards for the hills today. No downslope dandy with light northerly flow.

[ORH_wxman]

Are Tuesday night storms a possibility on the Euro, with the warm front?

 

 

It looks like they would go northwest of us on the Euro...but thats getting pretty far out. The setup on Wednesday looks pretty juicey...front coming through in the PM. We'd hopefully get some morning sun. But the timing of the front is obvious precarious this far out.

[Damage In Tolland]

They had 73 (I linked the p&c to the airport)...you were probably clicking on the lower elevation areas to get that 75.

But struggling to reach 70F was in the cards for the hills today. No downslope dandy with light northerly flow.

For ORH forecast you click right on the dot on BOX website. You must have clicked in Northern ORH Cty not the city itself

[ORH_wxman]

For ORH forecast you click right on the dot on BOX website. You must have clicked in Northern ORH Cty not the city itself

 

No you actually click just west of the dot if you want the airport forecast at 1,000 feet. The dot is the downtown area lower down. Regardless, mid 70s FTL there as we thought.

[joey2002]

I'm heading to union this morning for a school visit. Wonder if they still have snow on the ground.

 

Is this their school?

 

 

 

Tell the students that we could really use a weather spotter from Union! 

[Damage In Tolland]

No you actually click just west of the dot if you want the airport forecast at 1,000 feet. The dot is the downtown area lower down. Regardless, mid 70s FTL there as we thought.

Nah we click the dot which gives us ORH forecast. Either way not a great job by them on that

[forkyfork]

the euro tends to be overdone with canadian s/w's at that time range...  it cancelled the late june heat wave several times last year and was wrong

[ORH_wxman]

Nah we click the dot which gives us ORH forecast. Either way not a great job by them on that

 

Considering ORH is the airport, you are incorrect.

 

But you already knew that and are now just disagreeing for kicks.

[weathafella]

Looks like Forky's expecting heat to be more prolonged.

[Typhoon Tip]

Folks in addition to Will's heads up on Wednesday ... I'd also keep an eye to the MCS sky at any time through early Wednesday.  

 

The parameters appear sufficient for typical nocturnal, as the surface flow will be SW, and there will be a balance mid level flow that averages WNW.  That is a static positive helicity through the deep, ambient layer.  Thunderstorms near where the ridge rim kisses the westerlies would feed off that.

 

Some kind of a front mid week is not surprising, though I agree it might be over-done in the Euro, which any period beyond D6 it has a bias to carve out heights up this way.  Still, seasonal trends and the fact that the subtropical ridge is tending to retrograde in time, are both compelling enough reasons.  

 

Still looks to me to be a seasonal type of heat wave, 90, 91 type stuff, Sun-late Tue or Wed. 

[Ginx snewx]

Looks like Forky's expecting heat to be more prolonged.

always is at Newark

[free_man]

It looks like they would go northwest of us on the Euro...but thats getting pretty far out. The setup on Wednesday looks pretty juicey...front coming through in the PM. We'd hopefully get some morning sun. But the timing of the front is obvious precarious this far out.

Cool, thanks.  That's a good thing I suppose...keep us squarely in the warm sector anyway.

[Ginx snewx]

Record mins for tomorrow

BDR 49 in 1959 Hartford  45 in 1918  ORH 37 in 1926  BOS 47 in 1918  MQE 41 in 1918  PVD 45 in 1918 CON   37 in 1946

[powderfreak]

It would be nice to get a few days in the 80s...

Today's high is 67.5F off the 40F low...probably a -8 or so. -5 yesterday and still no real above normal day since June 2nd.

MVL is only -1.2 not including today...but Saint Johnsbury near Lyndon State is now -3.5. Wonder if they can hit -4 for the month before we warm up.

[CoastalWx]

Nah we click the dot which gives us ORH forecast. Either way not a great job by them on that

 

Great job by the Mets who know the area.

[CoastalWx]

After the heat, I also caution that we may be heading into a wet pattern with fronts nearby or hung up overhead. I see that look on the ensembles. Of course a 100 miles either way could happen...but I see a semi sultan signal.

[forkyfork]

Looks like Forky's expecting heat to be more prolonged.

the big heat isn't going to last more than a few days but it doesn't look below normal after that. that's a big change from the past few weeks

[Ginx snewx]

After the heat, I also caution that we may be heading into a wet pattern with fronts nearby or hung up overhead. I see that look on the ensembles. Of course a 100 miles either way could happen...but I see a semi sultan signal.

semi floater

[CoastalWx]

Was a great day for lunch at Marina Bay in Quincy. 

[joey2002]

Record mins for tomorrow

BDR 49 in 1959 Hartford  45 in 1918  ORH 37 in 1926  BOS 47 in 1918  MQE 41 in 1918  PVD 45 in 1918 CON   37 in 1946

 

Could come close to 1918's record of 45 tonight at BDL.

[dendrite]

MAV had 40F at CON so the 37F could be close. Dews have been in the upper 30s this afternoon.

[weatherwiz]

Next Wednesday begins summer camp work so certainly expect something 

[weathafella]

Solstice Friday. Right on time with a nice warm day.

[powderfreak]

MAV had 40F at CON so the 37F could be close. Dews have been in the upper 30s this afternoon.

 

Our dews have been running upper 30s too... tonight will be a race to see if we can get into the 30s or if we fog out before that.

 

My point and click has a low of 39F tonight and the zone forecast calls for upper 30s.  We'll see.  As much as it doesn't matter at all, I'd still love to tickle upper 30s.

 

[joey2002]

For Kevin:

 

Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 1h

Bumped the New England average hi temperature forecast up for Saturday (was 85, now 87), Sunday (85->89), Monday (87->90)

[weathafella]

As Forky and Tip note, after fropa sometime next week the pattern doesn't revert back. Not surprising.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah it's not a cool pattern after fropa next Thursday. It's AN just not insanely above. We on eastern edge of trough so it'll be humid with storms and warm overnight mins