Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Severe Threat June 11-13


Hoosier

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Can't remember the last time I was under a PDS anything watch, very interesting but I'm definitely on the far northern fringe of any derecho potential.

Regardless, torrential rain appears to be a real concern. There has been a line of moderate showers/t-storms training over me for the past hour already along the warm front.

 

The NAM Hires that Geos posted and 20z HRRR want to lay down some serious rain in southern MI tonight.

 

The two systems are already sort of merging on the radar as cells continue to fill in between the two. EDIT: Forward propagation seems to be stalling on the south edge - maybe the NAM Hires will win and it will be come more training, E-W oriented?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

New MD out for the PDS severe watch. 

 

Nice snippet:

 

 


DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1002 MB LOW OVER FAR
ERN IA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NRN IL..NRN
IND AND NW OH WITH DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER 70S
F. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S F IS
RESULTING IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
ESTIMATED IN THE 2500 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT IS CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES EARLY THIS
EVENING...THE MCS OVER NE IL IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A
BOWING LINE SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 70 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE. IN ADDITION
TO WIND DAMAGE...SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE SHOULD ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. CELLS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE
WILL ALSO HAVE A TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS COULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM Hires that Geos posted and 20z HRRR want to lay down some serious rain in southern MI tonight.

 

The two systems are already sort of merging on the radar as cells continue to fill in between the two. EDIT: Forward propagation seems to be stalling on the south edge - maybe the NAM Hires will win and it will be come more training, E-W oriented?

Just these showers moving through right now have had some pretty heavy rain at times without looking impressive at all on radar. Can't imagine the deluge going on with the beasts on the other side of the lakes right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow cells exploding over Northern Indiana and they are all discrete. I think Northern IN into NW Ohio better watch out tonight, heading for the border now

 

Yeah, judging by that MCD, we're about to have some problems in Northern IN.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow cells exploding over Northern Indiana and they are all discrete. I think Northern IN into NW Ohio better watch out tonight, heading for the border now

 

 

Yup, things are firing up real fast. There is a highly sheared environment in that region as well. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, judging by that MCD, we're about to have some problems in Northern IN.

So far at least the system seems to be coming together as expected.  Initial cells were supposed to be discrete out ahead of the line and then the squall line intensifies to a derecho and charges east.  Seems to be what is happening.  Do expect northern IN to have a lot of straight line wind damage and isolated tor reports as the MCD indicated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tornado warning SE of DBQ.

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL549 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013ILC085-122300-/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-130612T2300Z/JO DAVIESS IL-549 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN JO DAVIESSCOUNTY UNTIL 600 PM CDT...AT 546 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADOWAS LOCATED NEAR EAST DUBUQUE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.         SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL         OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.         EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  MENOMINEE AROUND 555 PM CDT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ASTURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OROUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.&&LAT...LON 4249 9052 4245 9046 4242 9055 4242 9056      4244 9057 4246 9062 4251 9064 4251 9062      4251 9058TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 322DEG 19KT 4248 9061TORNADO...RADAR INDICATEDHAIL...1.00IN$$SHEETS

 

Warnings west of Milwaukee cover a lot of real estate.




			
		
Link to comment
Share on other sites

looking at the Chicago Heights area towards Lynwood and Schererville, there's a real nasty looking near-hook down there that developed off the LOT radar the last couple of frames. Is that just part of a cluster with a leading edge of gusts, or is anyone seeing rotation on radar  down there like I am?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...