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Severe Threat June 11-13


Hoosier

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PDS Svr watch for NE IL with multiple discrete supercells organizing? Hmm.

Why? It seems reasonable to me given the forcing associated with the main impulse over NW IA. The secondary mesoscale low near Savanna, IL, is not likely to deepen substantially over/near the warm sector in the next few hours, that is, until the main impulse arrives. As Kevin said, the PDS SVR seems well-thought-out.

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Why? It seems reasonable to me given the forcing associated with the main impulse over NW IA. The secondary mesoscale low near Savanna, IL, is not likely to deepen substantially over/near the warm sector in the next few hours, that is, until the main impulse arrives. As Kevin said, the PDS SVR seems well-thought-out.

 

I said that prior to the expansion of the tornado watch.

 

And yeah, the CC lowering looks to have been either short lived or a glitch. Still an intense mid level meso though.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 300

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

400 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

NORTHERN INDIANA

SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

NORTHWEST OHIO

SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN

LAKE ERIE

LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM

400 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

NUMEROUS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY

SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST OF FINDLAY

OHIO TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF RACINE WISCONSIN. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 298...WW 299...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A

FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS

A COMPACT BUT PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACTS ON A VERY UNSTABLE

AIRMASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. ONGOING

CONVECTION NEAR A SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...FROM IOWA EAST ACROSS

NORTHERN ILLINOIS...EXISTS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ASCENT WILL

CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW MORE HOURS OF TORNADO POTENTIAL IN WATCH 298.

EVENTUALLY STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION WITH

ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE DERECHO OR

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT. THIS TRANSITION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR

ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA AND SRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO EARLY EVENING.

PRIOR TO THIS EVOLUTION THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO POSSIBILITIES

WILL BE GREATEST WITHIN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF WATCH 300. WITH

TIME...MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP AS THE

MCS RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MI/NORTHERN IND...AND INTO NORTHWEST

OH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 2

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1044  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

0406 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013  

 

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...EXTREME SERN MN...SWRN WI...NWRN IL  

 

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 298...  

 

VALID 122106Z - 122200Z  

 

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 298 CONTINUES.  

 

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL  

CONTINUES ACROSS WW...WHICH WAS RECENTLY EXTENDED EWD BY WFO  

CHICAGO.  

 

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN IA ACROSS NWRN  

IL...AND INTERSECTS A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR CHICAGO. A SURFACE  

LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONT OVER CENTRAL/NERN IA...AND THIS LOW  

WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA INTO NRN IL BY EARLY EVENING.  

SUPERCELL SVR TSTMS OVER NRN IL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A TORNADO  

THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STRONG DEEP  

LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3 KM SRH OF AROUND 200 M2/S2. STORMS INTERACTING  

WITH WWD-MOVING LAKE BREEZE MAY BRIEFLY ENCOUNTER HIGHER LOW-LEVEL  

SRH OVER NRN IL BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS. SVR TSTMS OVER SWRN WI  

ARE IN A REGION OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WILL ALSO POSE A  

TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  

 

TSTMS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AREA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO  

DEVELOP...HOWEVER A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED IN FRANKLIN COUNTY AT  

2029Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING  

CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  

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Right-mover is not far from Parkersburg, IA:

 

TORNADO WARNING
IAC017-023-122200-
/O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0014.130612T2125Z-130612T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
425 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BREMER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...
CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 422 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ALLISON...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLARKSVILLE...SHELL ROCK...WAVERLY AND PLAINFIELD.

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