Disc Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 PDS coming. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0240 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF OKCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 311940Z - 312115ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z. ISOLATED TOSCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM ALONG DRYLINE BETWEEN21-23Z WITH PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATEDSEVERE WINDS. TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z WITH ANEXPECTATION OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTFROM GRANT TO CUSTER COUNTIES WITH A DRYLINE DRAPED S/SWWD INTO THELOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NWRN TX. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOWBREACHED 100 DEG F ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SWRN OK/NWRNTX...RESULTING IN MINIMAL MLCIN PER MODIFIED 18Z OUN RAOB. CU JUSTAHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME MORE AGITATED IN LATEST VISIBLESATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW WITH GLANCINGINFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THISSHOULD RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION BY 21Z.STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH AN INITIALPRIMARY RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH A PLUME OF 73-74 DEG F SURFACEDEW POINTS REMAINING ACROSS CNTRL OK BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSIONNOTED IN 18Z OUN RAOB...AND AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES BY 00Z...TORNADOTHREAT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY BESIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...GRAMS/HART.. 05/31/2013ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Can someone briefly explain exactly what it is I'm supposed to look for in a sounding? (Relating to svr wx of course) If this is the right thread for this type of question, I apologize! Just trying to gain a better understanding so I can contribute to the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 The river gauge on the Fourche LaFave River near Gravelly went from around 3ft to over 30 feet in just hours! https://www.facebook.com/pages/Garrett-Lewis-5NEWS-Weather-Guy/288279856331?fref=ts They are still searching for victims. 2 confirmed dead now with 3 still missing. Early Friday, Scott County Judge James Forbes said they are currently searching for three people. Arkansas State Police said bodies have been recovered after flood water washed them away. They did not report how many or identify the victims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Pds watch by 21z is some strong wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Can someone briefly explain exactly what it is I'm supposed to look for in a sounding? (Relating to svr wx of course) If this is the right thread for this type of question, I apologize! Just trying to gain a better understanding so I can contribute to the discussion. Here's a good place to start: http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~lead/SkewT_HowTo.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Not that it matters much since there will be a PDS tornado watch coming soon, but it seems even more likely that a High Risk will be issued by 20z. The RAP looks increasingly dangerous for later today Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Anyone know if they will have SRSO going for this event? I can never remember the link for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Nervous about this new outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 70/50 tornado probs. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0260.html Stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Outlook remains essentially unchanged as far as categorical risk areas are concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 i guess no High Risk then? Not like it's a big deal, just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Outlook remains essentially unchanged as far as categorical risk areas are concerned. Yeah, I believe hail went up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 60% Hail contour added in C OK on 20z OTLK... MOD risk extended into SE KS and SW MO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I get the impression given the upgraded hail parameters they just don't have enough confidence in coverage to make the 30% upgrade on the tor's....don't blame them thats a big leap but the upgrade in hail suggest to me that the severe threat has indeed elevated a notch and perhaps a 20 or 25% tor threat would be warranted...but I think they go from 15 to 30... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chad A Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Winds are backing at OKC with time 200 degrees to 170 degrees over last 4 hours. KOKC 311952Z 17014G20KT 10SM FEW034 BKN044 30/23 A2971 RMK AO2 SLP044 T03000233KOKC 311852Z 18010KT 10SM SCT033 BKN041 BKN050 30/23 A2973 RMK AO2 SLP050 T03000228 $KOKC 311752Z 20013KT 10SM FEW030 BKN046 OVC055 28/22 A2974 RMK AO2 SLP056 T02830222 10289 20233 58000KOKC 311652Z 20012KT 10SM FEW025 BKN037 OVC045 27/22 A2976 RMK AO2 SLP062 T02720217 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I get the impression given the upgraded hail parameters they just don't have enough confidence in coverage to make the 30% upgrade on the tor's....don't blame them thats a big leap but the upgrade in hail suggest to me that the severe threat has indeed elevated a notch and perhaps a 20 or 25% tor threat would be warranted...but I think they go from 15 to 30... If nothing else, it would mean they are expecting stronger updrafts in the supercells, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Local news seems to want to hype this even more than the SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Can't say I blame them, at the very worst public is warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Local news seems to want to hype this even more than the SPC. I can't see the word Enhanced without thinking of reddit. Stupid internet. I think it's generally risky for them to put the word 'Low' on this screen at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Local news seems to want to hype this even more than the SPC. After the damage the state has seen, I don't blame them. Today seems to be coming together for significant severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Local news seems to want to hype this even more than the SPC. I don't know that they're "hyping" this more than the SPC. They use different colors and wordings but they clearly don't follow the same spatial/probability scales of the SPC. Otherwise winds to near 80MPH, softball sized hail and tornadoes are all possible and the SPC has said the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I get the impression given the upgraded hail parameters they just don't have enough confidence in coverage to make the 30% upgrade on the tor's....don't blame them thats a big leap but the upgrade in hail suggest to me that the severe threat has indeed elevated a notch and perhaps a 20 or 25% tor threat would be warranted...but I think they go from 15 to 30... Correct... tor probs go 15 to 30 with nothing in between... wouldn't be surprised to see a in-between upgrade if things go to town... Also there is no high risk for hail probs -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Upgrade to 60% on hail makes a lot of sense. Super fat CAPE in the hail growth zone in the 18z OUN sounding. Someone's getting softballs or larger today...hopefully just chasers in the farmlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 JoMo, do you normally watch the Bartlesville area to see if you're in the target line of given cell? When I was in Nashville, there were a couple NE Miss cities I looked for that would always put the storm on the right side of my city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Upgrade to 60% on hail makes a lot of sense. Super fat CAPE in the hail growth zone in the 18z OUN sounding. Someone's getting softballs or larger today...hopefully just chasers in the farmlands. Hey now, don't wish all that hail on us. My vehicle can only take so much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 20Z dew point temperatures, wind barbs, streamlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Yeah I agree with David haha Steven Wilkerson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Aren't the NCAA Softball Championship games being held in OKC today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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