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Showing results for tags 'Oklahoma'.
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Autumn is coming pretty quickly. Thought some early discussion would be nice. Been a spectacular summer for me. Things are greener in August and more alive looking than I remember seeing in many many years. I am incredibly ready for autumn to begin though as I believe it will be quite beautiful this year.
The details are still far from being determined, but I think it's about time to start a dedicated thread for the midweek system. I don't want to dive into too many details just yet, but with the intensity of jet coming ashore early in the week and where it's coming ashore, a significant severe threat seems almost inevitable. Tuesday might be a little sketchy in the moisture department, but with well-established return flow in place, Wednesday and Thursday should have no problems in that department. In terms of location, it's a pick your poison right now on the models. The GFS has an extremely potent threat for nrn OK, KS, and srn NE, while the Euro, with its more meridional flow over the plains, would more favor OK and nrn TX, especially for tornadoes. From my experience, to see the Euro verify, I would probably want to see the jet streak come ashore with more of a NW-SE orientation to get a setup more like the Euro. Between that and the Euro's tendency to dig a trough too much in the SW US, I'm probably going to side more with the GFS leading up to this event unless we see evidence of more digging as it comes ashore. The bottom line is that a jet disturbance even stronger than the previous humdinger is coming and has the potential to lead to a series of several significant severe weather days.