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2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

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There is really no reason to be optimistic, unfortunately

 

-PDO, Neutral after a cold ENSO period...Unless we get a surprise Nino, it is a no-brainer to go Above normal temps and below normal snow...and a KU would be extremely unlikely..

 

This notion that "it just takes one!" is not really true..you can't rule it out, but I think the one is more likely in a Nina....I think the setup now is one of our worst possible

 

I think the most likely exception to the rule, if we were even to get one, would be a super cold month (25%?), but even then we'd probably struggle with storm track....

 

There are 2 other upsides I think

 

1) The far burbs can make 80-100% of climo in these winters if they are ok with smaller events...Plus Phineas, who lives 80-100 miles away from most of the posters, and in elevation..

2) It is hard for DCA to do awful 3 years in a row, especially when RIC-ROA-CHO are getting some interesting events.  Plus one of these weird super clippers that give Hollywood MD and Orange VA, 6-8" has to hit DC at some point...even to a lesser extent...So I'd still say 5-8"+ for DCA which is at least better than the last 2 years

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

There is really no reason to be optimistic, unfortunately

-PDO, Neutral after a cold ENSO period...Unless we get a surprise Nino, it is a no-brainer to go Above normal temps and below normal snow...and a KU would be extremely unlikely..

This notion that "it just takes one!" is not really true..you can't rule it out, but I think the one is more likely in a Nina....I think the setup now is one of our worst possible

I think the most likely exception to the rule, if we were even to get one, would be a super cold month (25%?), but even then we'd probably struggle with storm track....

There are 2 other upsides I think

1) The far burbs can make 80-100% of climo in these winters if they are ok with smaller events...Plus Phineas, who lives 80-100 miles away from most of the posters, and in elevation..

2) It is hard for DCA to do awful 3 years in a row, especially when RIC-ROA-CHO are getting some interesting events. Plus one of these weird super clippers that give Hollywood MD and Orange VA, 6-8" has to hit DC at some point...even to a lesser extent...So I'd still say 5-8"+ for DCA which is at least better than the last 2 years

.

You can find something positive. You still have three months. :)

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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.

You can find something positive. You still have three months. :)

 

A raging +PDO/warm GOA in October would be a good start. We've had that 6 times in the past 20 years....

1993

1995

1997

2002

2003

2009

All those years were either cold, snowy, or both for DC metro with the exception of the Nuclear 1997-1998 Nino.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted

A raging +PDO/warm GOA in October would be a good start. We've had that 6 times in the past 20 years....

1993

1995

1997

2002

2003

2009

All those years were either cold, snowy, or both for DC metro with the exception of the Nuclear 1997-1998 Nino.

But that's not happening. What else?

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Huffwx

Huffwx

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Posted

 

 

A raging +PDO/warm GOA in October would be a good start. We've had that 6 times in the past 20 years....

1993

1995

1997

2002

2003

2009

All those years were either cold, snowy, or both for DC metro with the exception of the Nuclear 1997-1998 Nino.

 

 

I don't feel horrible about this winter ....yet. Maybe I'll be wrong. My climo is 18ish, 10-15 seems like a decent first stab. 

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Ha, I didn't say it was likely...but at least the GOA is baking right now. I expect it to cool though by the time we get to October. But you never know.

 

there is no chance...plus, not coincidentally, as you know those 6 winters were 3 ninos, 2 neutrals during a warm ENSO phase, and a weak nina after a massive extended warm phase

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SoCoWx

SoCoWx

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there is no chance...plus, not coincidentally, as you know those 6 winters were 3 ninos, 2 neutrals during a warm ENSO phase, and a weak nina after a massive extended warm phase

 

I wouldn't be so quick to rule everything out that doesn't jive with your opinion on the winter. You could just as well be wrong...like any other met. Just saying.

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I wouldn't be so quick to rule everything out that doesn't jive with your opinion on the winter. You could just as well be wrong...like any other met. Just saying.

 

No doubt I could be wrong, but I am confident we are going to have a mediocre to subpar winter....Will is just trying to give us some encouragement...The one wildcard and it is a longshot is if we get some surprise Nino....a weak nina, would also give us the potential for slightly better winter....but as it stands now, there is no real reason to be too optimistic...We have a neutral winter in a -PDO/Cold Enso phase...these are typically bad snow winters for DC

 

In terms of some optimism, a few decent analog winters have a cold month...Dec 1945, January 1957, December 1989, and even February 2013....but they all had more of a Nina imprint if not full blown

 

Something I am looking for is for us to get colder in 3.4 (at this point a Nino is kind of hopeless)....I think if we can get cold neutral/borderline nina, there would be legit reason to go cold in one of the months....and cold at least gives us some opportunities to back into something decent even without a southern stream....I think a dead on neutral or neutral positive would be a disaster here....

 

So rather than look for something good in the northern Pac (Pdo is raging negative right now) or Atlantic, I would look at region 3.4 and root for it to cool..

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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No doubt I could be wrong, but I am confident we are going to have a mediocre to subpar winter....Will is just trying to give us some encouragement...The one wildcard and it is a longshot is if we get some surprise Nino....a weak nina, would also give us the potential for slightly better winter....but as it stands now, there is no real reason to be too optimistic...We have a neutral winter in a -PDO/Cold Enso phase...these are typically bad snow winters for DC

 

In terms of some optimism, a few decent analog winters have a cold month...Dec 1945, January 1957, December 1989, and even February 2013....but they all had more of a Nina imprint if not full blown

 

Something I am looking for is for us to get colder in 3.4 (at this point a Nino is kind of hopeless)....I think if we can get cold neutral/borderline nina, there would be legit reason to go cold in one of the months....and cold at least gives us some opportunities to back into something decent even without a southern stream....I think a dead on neutral or neutral positive would be a disaster here....

 

So rather than look for something good in the northern Pac (Pdo is raging negative right now) or Atlantic, I would look at region 3.4 and root for it to cool..

 

 

Probably something more realistic to hope for outside of the unlikely autumn PDO spike is a winter like '00-'01 or maybe a '71-'72 type winter...which had that great pattern in February. Both were weak Ninas and -PDO periods. '71-'72 was more entrenched in the decadal PDO regime than '00-'01, so hoping for a PAC like '00-'01 would be difficult. For some reason the PDO went up during the winter months that year despite solidly negative leading up to it. '56-'57 is one you already mentioned which might not be a bad analog either.

 

A terrifying analog for ENSO and PDO is '90-'91...even though it was in long term +PDO regime, it was hugely negative that autumn and winter and we were coming off a neutral ENSO ('89-'90) after a big Nina ('88-'89). I doubt that we would see an AO that severely positive though which was a big driver of that horrific winter. But some of those neutrals with -PDO have produced ugly AO regimes in the winter.

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Ian

Ian

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That's a weathfella question sir

it might be too early for that anyway. unless it's going to be a really epic winter.

 

my prediction is for darkening and coldening in coming months.

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Probably something more realistic to hope for outside of the unlikely autumn PDO spike is a winter like '00-'01 or maybe a '71-'72 type winter...which had that great pattern in February. Both were weak Ninas and -PDO periods. '71-'72 was more entrenched in the decadal PDO regime than '00-'01, so hoping for a PAC like '00-'01 would be difficult. For some reason the PDO went up during the winter months that year despite solidly negative leading up to it. '56-'57 is one you already mentioned which might not be a bad analog either.

 

A terrifying analog for ENSO and PDO is '90-'91...even though it was in long term +PDO regime, it was hugely negative that autumn and winter and we were coming off a neutral ENSO ('89-'90) after a big Nina ('88-'89). I doubt that we would see an AO that severely positive though which was a big driver of that horrific winter. But some of those neutrals with -PDO have produced ugly AO regimes in the winter.

 

I don't like 00-01 or 71-72 unless we go sharply Nina...both those were smack in cold periods...we never went neutral before either...For those to work, I'd like to see 3.4 cool to -1.0 or colder and I don't see that happening....I think the upside is getting one cold month if we can go semi-cold in the enso regions...

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