May 2013 Pattern and Discussion

[Poimen]

I refuse to turn the heat pump on, but I did burn the gas logs to take the chill out of the room. That's a first for May.

[Met1985]

I refuse to turn the heat pump on, but I did burn the gas logs to take the chill out of the room. That's a first for May.

I hear ya. I don't think I have witnessed a spring quite like this that I can remember being so Wet and so cold this far out. I mean were are running some 20-30 degrees below average. Today we build a fire in the wood stove because we have been so cold stuck in the 40s for the past several days.

[nchighcountrywx]

Winter makes a come back next weekend. Get ready!

[Jon]

After the cold shot mid month seasonal temps should come back at the end of the month...looks like a pretty decent ridge building over the SE at the end of the GFS...and you can kinda see at the end of the Euro once that trough moves out if you extrapolate the run a ridge should set up. I think the 27th-31st should have seasonal temps at the beaches, well that's my hope anyway.

[dsaur]

Thanks Midlo     I'm offline for just over 24 hrs and it seems the SE Forum went straight to h*&& in a handbasket   

You, dear lady, are the wind beneath our wings, lol.  Tony

 

 I hope you are getting some good rain out of this.  Just looking at radar, and I'm looking at more coming in before long.  Love me a good cut off.  I'll take one every time, all year round. 

[Brick Tamland]

After the cold shot mid month seasonal temps should come back at the end of the month...looks like a pretty decent ridge building over the SE at the end of the GFS...and you can kinda see at the end of the Euro once that trough moves out if you extrapolate the run a ridge should set up. I think the 27th-31st should have seasonal temps at the beaches, well that's my hope anyway.

 

I hope so. I am tired of living in Seattle.

[DixieBlizzard]

You and the SE forum are welcome

 

This could be one the most awesome things to ever happen to this forum. I have never been to Wilkesboro but I think I might really hate that place. Wilkeboro Dude was more annoying than cable.....

[buckeyefan1]

You, dear lady, are the wind beneath our wings, lol.  Tony

 

 I hope you are getting some good rain out of this.  Just looking at radar, and I'm looking at more coming in before long.  Love me a good cut off.  I'll take one every time, all year round. 

 

 

2.28 and counting   Hopefully there will be some breaks in the clouds to help my chances for some small hail. It's been awhile since the yard has been covered with anything frozen   

[jburns]

.75 this morning. Sunshine now. Maybe some hail later?

[franklin NCwx]

More cold.

 

 

[mackerel_sky]

Yeah, this cold shot looks pretty solid for early next week. I guess if you can't get 15-20 below avg temps in the winter,late spring will do and summer would be even better!

[eyewall]

Roasting away up here in VT at 81F and full sun. There is a wildfire to my east.

[Isopycnic]

Roasting away up here in VT at 81F and full sun. There is a wildfire to my east.

Accumulating hail in N wake county earlier this afternoon.

[eyewall]

Accumulating hail in N wake county earlier this afternoon.

 

I saw the pic! Pretty impressive.

[buckeyefan1]

Roasting away up here in VT at 81F and full sun. There is a wildfire to my east.

A perfect 70 degrees and mostly sunny here      

 

 

Glad to see you haven't forgotten about us      

[jburns]

Glad to see you haven't forgotten about us    

I remember my heart attack. It's not necessarily a good thing.

[DCMetroWinston]

GFS says crop-destroying cold coming for parts of East and Mid West.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BJsKbCsCYAAsMVA.png:large

[Met1985]

More cold.

 

 

Ya this looks like we could be in for another frost or even a freeze here in the mountains. Pretty amazing for this time of the year. Also just when you thought after this cold snap it would warm up quite a bit but at the end of the Euros run today there looked to be another trough in the East with some low pressure or something off the Carolina coast.

[Met1985]

GFS says crop-destroying cold coming for parts of East and Mid West.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BJsKbCsCYAAsMVA.png:large

Ya thas is pretty bad for this time of the year if it verifies.

[WxJordan]

New blog post discussing cold air that could be affecting the southeast.

If this trend continues, we have a chance to see a frosty morning in May, mainly in higher elevations of North Carolina. Some piedmont locations in NC or even in TN and far north SC could see a slight frost. Now that is something that does not happen everyday! http://wxjordan.blogspot.com/2013/05/stormy-wednesday-and-saturday-then.html

[LithiaWx]

New blog post discussing cold air that could be affecting the southeast.

If this trend continues, we have a chance to see a frosty morning in May. Now that is something that does not happen everyday! http://wxjordan.blogspot.com/2013/05/stormy-wednesday-and-saturday-then.html

Border

[calculus1]

From the long-term GSP discussion:

 

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH MOVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY AS
IT WILL HAVE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORT WAVE OVERHEAD AND A JET STREAK TO THE NORTH. SO...THE HIGH
CHANCE AND LIKELY POP ARRANGEMENT WAS KEPT FOR SATURDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE BY
ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEW ECMWF...WARRANTING A CONTINUATION
OF CHANCE POP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEPENING LONG
WAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT WELL TO OUR
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...WE REVERT BACK TO EARLY APRIL AGAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKY BUT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT QUITE A BLACKBERRY WINTER...BUT WE MIGHT
HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SOME FROST OVER THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FCST WAS UNCHANGED PAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

 

Somebody was just mentioning the term blackberry winter, and here we have GSP referencing it as well.  Either that's a more common term than I realized, or someone is reading our board?  Either way, here comes another cool down over the weekend.  

[jburns]

From the long-term GSP discussion:

 

 

Somebody was just mentioning the term blackberry winter, and here we have GSP referencing it as well.  Either that's a more common term than I realized, or someone is reading our board?  Either way, here comes another cool down over the weekend.  

The term blackberry winter has been around for years.

 

http://blackberrywinterband.com/

 

http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13543138-blackberry-winter

 

http://www.amazon.com/Blackberry-Winter-My-Earlier-Years/dp/156836069X

 

Dogwood winter is also popular in some areas as well as several others.

 

[dsaur]

The term blackberry winter has been around for years.

 

http://blackberrywinterband.com/

 

http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13543138-blackberry-winter

 

http://www.amazon.com/Blackberry-Winter-My-Earlier-Years/dp/156836069X

 

Dogwood winter is also popular in some areas as well as several others.

 

Yep, like CrossRoads winter!   We used to get Blackberry winters all the time back before the portals opened.  T

[Met1985]

The term blackberry winter has been around for years.

 

http://blackberrywinterband.com/

 

http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13543138-blackberry-winter

 

http://www.amazon.com/Blackberry-Winter-My-Earlier-Years/dp/156836069X

 

Dogwood winter is also popular in some areas as well as several others.

 

Very true Sir! It never fails that that when the dogwoods are blooming we always have a cold snap and same with the blackberrys when they bloom out. Very popular term here in the mountains and a pretty good forecast for cold weather in the spring.

[FallsLake]

Early next week still looks really cool/cold. Latest 12 GFS shows 850 zero line getting down to North NC.

 

At 96 hours:

 

[franklin NCwx]

12z gfs has low temps getting below freezing in the Mtn's on Monday morning.

 

 

 

[kvegas-wx]

Folks...could use some help here. We have a travel soccer team headed for Asheville / Hendersonville tomorrow pm for 7pm game. Point and click is saying a chance of tstorms for most of the piedmont and foothills. Parents concerned about svr and want to try and cancel the game (a bit premature). I see the model chances for tstorms but I am no expert on svr analysis.

Anyone willing to take a stab at svr potential for tomorrow PM in Asheville? There is a few hundred dollars worth of charter bus fees on the line here.

[GaWx]

_Folks,

 _{Fwiw, the 12Z Goofy per MeteoStar has a record tieing low of 42 F for KATL on Monday 5/13. I wouldn't bet on it just yet largely due to cold bias, but it is certainly doable considering that run's +5 850, a favorable trajectory, and the fact that KATL often cools down well during the first night of a cold snap. Also, the 0Z Euro has the 850 down to +5 C though it is warmer. Then again, the Euro has some warm bias. So, we'll see..As of now, I think that I'd go with the middle ground of a low near 45 at KATL 5/13 for the safest play.}

[LithiaWx]

_Folks,

_{Fwiw, the 12Z Goofy per MeteoStar has a record tieing low of 42 F for KATL on Monday 5/13. I wouldn't bet on it just yet largely due to cold bias, but it is certainly doable considering that run's +5 850, a favorable trajectory, and the fact that KATL often cools down well during the first night of a cold snap. Also, the 0Z Euro has the 850 down to +5 C though it is warmer. Then again, the Euro has some warm bias. So, we'll see..As of now, I think that I'd go with the middle ground of a low near 45 at KATL 5/13 for the safest play.}

Nice larry,

Maybe katl will get through met spring without hitting 90! That my friend would be a treat.

We have less than 4 months until met fall and I can't wait. The days will start getting shorter in about six weeks... tick tock goes the clock on summerlike temps.