WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol GFS is terrible. A safe call right now would be 3-6" I'd have to say. All the calls of the local mets honestly seem good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Well, the GFS not biting whatever the NAM is. It's going to come down to the EURO, if it goes to the NAM, yay, the GFS, boo, if it stays in it's own camp, congrats SNE and we enjoy our 3-6" Not staying up to find out, good luck to all! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I really can't recall a time where the GFS and NAM were so different this close to an event. I can, the recent blizzard. Honestly, the NAM is a horrid model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Gfs is wide right. Even further se then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm amazed how different all the models are with this at about 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I can, the recent blizzard. Honestly, the NAM is a horrid model. The NAM was the only model showing 4" QPF amounts for LI while every other model wasn't. But in this situation, I toss the NAM, I'm also tossing the GFS because it's basically nothing for us. Ride the Euro. Also for everyone else, the trashing of NCEP models need to stop. Just because it doesn't show you what you want you people get pissed off and hate on it. Ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol GFS is terrible. A safe call right now would be 3-6" I'd have to say. All the calls of the local mets honestly seem good more like 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS extreme SE outlier now. Just incredible from where it was yesterday as the furthest northwest outlier. Even for NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yep, toss the NAM RGEM and SREF's are also on it's side. But still, pretty shocking to see these models so far apart at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'M at the point where I'm only going to worry about now-casting. The models are useless at this point and are causing more confusion than their worth. - Maybe the HRRR and RAP can help tomorrow at least they were pretty good with the short term in 2/6 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 How did the GFS initialize compare to the current radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yet another totally new solution from Goofy. Tossed. What a joke of a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Incredible how different the NAM and GFS are with this storm. The GFS still seems to have some kind of feedback issue here that the NAM doesn't seem to have, and the RGEM seems to be much more in the NAM's camp here. However, models seem to continue to trend the ULL southeast tonight, which could make for much of this being a miss for us only to re-congeal east of us. Honestly, I have no clue which direction to lean towards. Epic, horrendous bust incoming for one of the two camps, that's for sure. I guess we can hope the NAM finally found a clue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 RGEM and SREF's are also on it's side. But still, pretty shocking to see these models so far apart at this point. The NAM has the support of every short term high res model. Clearly a battle going on between the globals and the short term high res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If the RGEM was not that much closer to the NAM I'd say definitely toss the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not mindlessly bashing the models has nothing to do with political correctness. Anyway... We bash models as well as each other. Don't take it so personal. We all respect you're work and the depth of the NCEP products. Now how can the GFS and NAM be on different planets 24 hrs out in a major metropolitan area ? One of them r gona bust on this In NYC you have to agree thats an issue for major municipalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS extreme SE outlier now. Just incredible from where it was yesterday as the furthest northwest outlier. Even for NE GFS is alone and a outliner..listen,the NAM and GFS both stink..I guess we will find out in the next 24 hours what model is worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Light snow hr 60 on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 and RGEM is equally crappy not true at all ace...take a look at the maps posted in sne forum. GFS is basically nothing. RGEM would be several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 the RGEM is NOT anywhere near the NAM. it closer to the GFS in terms of qpf output The RGEM is an inch. That gets it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM has the support of every short term high res model. Clearly a battle going on between the globals and the short term high res. And we know the Short Range (except the RGEM) have way over done QPF in some ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 RGEM is 20 - 25 and near 30 MM around NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 so sick of people saying THROW OUT GFS!!!... if it was a good run, you guys wouldn't have said a word. It is beyond annoying at this point. The GFS has been lost ever since 12z yesterday showing a different solution each time and having suspect feedback problems. No other model currently supports something as extreme as the GFS. Nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You know what is really funny....this is only a bust for us and not the general public if it doesn't happen lol. The local stations really are not hyping this up...basically saying "a slushy few inches is possible". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 so sick of people saying THROW OUT GFS!!!... if it was a good run, you guys wouldn't have said a word. It is beyond annoying at this point. So you want to toss all the short term models, which entire existence is due to a short term complex situation such as this? That makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ukmet is closer to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 several inches? yeah thats closer to the GFS than a 20" NAM outcome. Nam is not 20 inches of snow for NYC verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 i was actually off...the rgem is around 1.0 for the city. Basically in line with the NAM through 48. Ace seriously take a breather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 And we know the Short Range (except the RGEM) have way over done QPF in some ways. Chris the SREFs were very accurate at this range with the February snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GFS extreme SE outlier now. Just incredible from where it was yesterday as the furthest northwest outlier. Even for NE good point...nam, fwiw, has been consistent. tough forecast for pros, i wish them the best cuz there will be busts and snow weenies have the internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.