SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It might not be the blockbuster of 18z, but the NAM is going to be very un GFS like, probably will still be 1"+ for all when all's said and done. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm not sure. Doesn't look like it to me. If it was convective feedback you would notice a massive blob of QPF over the open Atlantic pulling east and therefore pulling the best dynamics with it. That's what the GFS had-this run doesn't really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 30+ dbz reflectivities at hour 27 are not what I would call a whiff. yeah, just saw that...not sure how they linked in 3 hours but whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 the presentation of the track reminds me of last night's 0z run, albeit less precip tonight which was expected by most in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Despite opening the door a bit towards the global models, the NAM still wants to throw precipitation right back to NYC with the CCB as it develops through 30 hours. Very close to 1" QPF for most interests in NE NJ, NYC, SW CT, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 27 is when tomorrow 10PM? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Despite opening the door a bit towards the global models, the NAM still wants to throw precipitation right back to NYC with the CCB as it develops through 30 hours. Very close to 1" QPF for most interests in NE NJ, NYC, SW CT, etc. Yup. That's as good as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Doesn't look like it to me. If it was convective feedback you would notice a massive blob of QPF over the open Atlantic pulling east and therefore pulling the best dynamics with it. That's what the GFS had-this run doesn't really. I am just looking at the placement of the L on the NCEP graphics. It seems obviously wrong to me. It jumps 300 miles in three hours from 18 to 21. I just don't know what mechanism drives the putting of that L on the screen thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This run is beautiful - 75% of this would be a great hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I am just looking at the placement of the L on the NCEP graphics. It seems obviously wrong to me. It jumps 300 miles in three hours from 18 to 21. I just don't know what mechanism drives the putting of that L on the screen thats all. it doesn't really jump that much its just that the pressure has a large field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Now lets hope the globals shift slightly north and this become our compromise. And who knows maybe 0z gfs will finally stop having convective feedback issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If the GFS can get us to an inch. Then the NAM SREF RGEM are all there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 somehow its actually better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Dream run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think one thing that we can take out of this is that the marginal thermal profiles are gone for most interests so we can start talking about 75-80% of these QPF values falling as frozen precipitation. This should be exciting for most people nearer to the coast. Obviously we still have a big hill to climb with the most reliable global QPF model in the Euro and its ensembles showing jack sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The deform band just sits over us for like 7-8 hours on the sim radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Now lets hope the globals shift slightly north and this become our compromise. And who knows maybe 0z gfs will finally stop having convective feedback issues I'm honestly not worried much about the GFS-it seems to keep having this problem and it might continue to. I'm more interested in what other models such as the RGEM have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 somehow its actually better than 18z Looks colder. Most of what we get besides the first couple of hours is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Through 36 there 1.25" contour runs through central Nassau, with 1.5 over far SE LI and 1.75 not too far offshore... Not bad at all especially considering it looks like its still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 I am just looking at the placement of the L on the NCEP graphics. Not smart. The high resolution models produce areas of lower pressure because of mesoscale features and the algorithm will pop and L on it. This happens all the time with the ARW and NMM who have 6 "L"s or areas of lower pressure relative to their surroundings coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM totals through 39 hours: EWR 1"+ NYC 1"+ ISP 1.25+ JFK 1"+ closer to 1.25" BDR 0.9" Still precipitating so hold your tickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think one thing that we can take out of this is that the marginal thermal profiles are gone for most interests so we can start talking about 75-80% of these QPF values falling as frozen precipitation. This should be exciting for most people nearer to the coast. Obviously we still have a big hill to climb with the most reliable global QPF model in the Euro and its ensembles showing jack sh*t. Would you give the nam more wright than usually due the to dynamics of the storm, along with the fact most of the high res models are showing similar solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm honestly not worried much about the GFS-it seems to keep having this problem and it might continue to. I'm more interested in what other models such as the RGEM have to say. From experience, expect the GFS issues to stop by 00Z or 06Z 06/03/2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's amazing how well this would theoretically be timed. The BL is almost a non concern now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM totals through 39 hours: EWR 1"+ NYC 1"+ ISP 1.25+ JFK 1"+ closer to 1.25" BDR 0.9" Still precipitating so hold your tickets. Love the boarding on the train reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam actually puts the surface below freezing for most of nyc between 27-30 -NICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 From experience, expect the GFS issues to stop by 00Z or 06Z 06/03/2013. We'll be tracking our "thunderstorms" by then, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What a forecast this has been. This has been the most up and down tracking I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If the low is slightly more amped and north, our precip amounts could easily go up another .5". This is important as the actual storm is generally a bit stronger than forecast by models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Now all we need are the GFS & Euro on board with similar track & QPF and we have an area wide blizzard What a forecast this has been. This has been the most up and down tracking I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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