rcad1 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nick Gregory on Chan 5 had the city and western li at 4-6 and Eastern li at 6-8 he said the he thinks the jack pot will be in sne.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ok, so we got the Major TV mets covered. When do the short range models start to run? MM5 etc? I am REAL curious to see those ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 With such high bust potential, it's best to err on the side of caution with this one. When are we starting an observation thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 With such high bust potential, it's best to err on the side of caution with this one. When are we starting an observation thread? read the OP ! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The consistency of the NAM and SREF data is creating a significant headache for short term forecasters as we begin to transition towards a period where mesoscale modeling tends to be more accurate. That being said, the ECMWF and GFS both have relative lighter events (despite the ECMWF bringing nearly 6" of snow to the NYC area). It remains to be seen how the storm will behave exactly but some form of significant impact --including snow, wind, rain and potentially coastal flooding -- seems likely in what could be the last "cold" storm of the season heading into March. We'll use this new topic for the 00z model guidance suite tonight and then open up an OBS Thread tomorrow morning. Wish you all luck with whatever you're hoping for from this system. With such high bust potential, it's best to err on the side of caution with this one. When are we starting an observation thread? See above from Earthlight's first post of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Eerily quiet in here. Lets see what the NAM wants to do. Radar is pretty juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Forecasts all over the place haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Eerily quiet in here. Lets see what the NAM wants to do. Radar is pretty juiced up. SREFs will be out in 15 minutes or so to the people whom have access to them on StormVista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Eerily quiet in here. Lets see what the NAM wants to do. Radar is pretty juiced up. Nobody knows what to say!!! I, personally, would like to see some of the short term models posted/analyized, as well as the key SIM radars... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow, very bearish by all of them for NYC. Even the 18z GFS shows more for NYC than each of those maps. Can't say I'm surprised though. 18Z GFS snow...or lack thereof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 wrf-nmm model radar reflectivties http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-21302-1362532277.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 FWIW the HRRR at hour 15 has a favorable look to it with heavy reflectivities advancing north to Central New Jersey in this frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The RUC/RAP has a major hit for the area. Looks very NAM-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 No major changes on the SREF. They look roughly similar to the 15z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 They actually might arguably be wetter through 60 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 No major changes on the SREF. They look roughly similar to the 15z run. I forget if the SREF incorporate NAM data from prior cycle, so in this case 18z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 FWIW the HRRR at hour 15 has a favorable look to it with heavy reflectivities advancing north to Central New Jersey in this frame. NM in my book, always seems fishy and weenieish when it comes to potential snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 They actually might arguably be wetter through 60 hrs How do they look temp wise, I'm Nassau Suffolk border, what does precip type look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 They actually might arguably be wetter through 60 hrs Not surprising considering the NAM got wetter at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 They actually might arguably be wetter through 60 hrs This is (hopefully) the range where they start to become useful and don't just pick up where the 18z left off. Starting to become cautiously optimistic that the front end will be worth something at least and the GFS was suffering from its usual feedback error routine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NM in my book, always seems fishy and weenieish when it comes to potential snows. It has had it's coups.. like with Jan 27 2011.. I wouldn't base a forecast off of it, but it's really interesting to see the higher resolution short range guidance so wet, and the SREFs now even wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It has had it's coups.. like with Jan 27 2011.. I wouldn't base a forecast off of it, but it's really interesting to see the higher resolution short range guidance so wet, and the SREFs now even wetter. I'm really interested in the MM5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Looking good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 93 How do you generate that 500mb map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm really interested in the MM5 Yeah, the MM5 had positive trends at 12z today. It's had it's coups as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Interesting how the hi-res models seem pretty bullish on this event. Definitely one of the most challenging forecasts in the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Are the sref s back around 1.25 in nyc ? Off that my opinion is the NAM doesnt back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 They actually might arguably be wetter through 60 hrs really? i see the NCEP crappy graphics and it looks drier...but i could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The sref is over 1 qpf. Great start. They are also cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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