weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Is that snow at the coast with the inverted trough? 850's are above freezing for pretty much all the island by 54... Not that I'm complaining after that run haha Too slow... Asked and answered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Inverted troughs are very difficult to forecast but there's a very strong signal we could pick up 1-3" with it, if not more. It's not your standard norlun. It's interaction with another northern stream wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What do you mean by pink? I guess it's really lavender, its the 1.50 - 1.75 QPF color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 FYI that's rain in the inverted trof For who? Certainly not NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NYC looks to finish with 1.5" qpf as snow/mostly snowstorm hour 60, precip continues but turns to rain with trough How's the surface look during the inverted trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NYC looks to finish with 1.5" qpf as snow/mostly snowstorm hour 60, precip continues but turns to rain with trough By then the NAM is out of its range, not that it has a range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Is that snow at the coast with the inverted trough? 850's are above freezing for pretty much all the island by 54... Not that I'm complaining after that run haha Nope, trough is rain, but plenty of time on that. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Surface looks near freezing just west of the city with the inverted trough precip hour 60+, the nam was torching the mid levels for tomorrow and then got much colder, I fully expect the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Surface looks near freezing just west of the city with the inverted trough precip hour 60+, the nam was torching the mid levels for tomorrow and then got much colder, I fully expect the same. Thinking the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Guys, just remember, 12 hours before the recent blizzard the NAM had Northern New Jersey getting 25-40 inches of snow. The end result was 4-16 inches. Expect the same results here. Showing 10-20, expect 2-6 over the next 3 days. The NAM has serious issues, and as far as the high resolution NAM goes, honestly, forget about it. Until any global model shows anything even remotely like this, it is pure model fantasy by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 lol Just went from 100 knots to 125 knots @ H5 The 4km NAM is pretty much pornographic with 1.75"+ for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 For who? Certainly not NW areas. The 850 0c line is sitting over scranton on that map. The norlun does bring some snow, but it quickly changes to rain after about 3 hours as the low closes off and the access to cold air ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Euro has -5 to -7 850 temps for the entire inverted trough event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Man, if that trough was all snow....another bonus 3-6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nope, trough is rain, but plenty of time on that. -skisheep Surface looks cold, especially just away from the coast...might be sleet or graupel type crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Long duration sounds great, but will there be lulls during this 24-36 hr pd or will it be precipating continuously at varying intensities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'd hesitate to call it all or mostly snow in NYC. There's a lot of easterly flow and the low-level temps aren't very good. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of coastal areas stay rain for much longer than what we'd find comfortable. Keep in mind even though the last NAM printed out 1-1.25" QPF, NYC only had about 6-8" on the clown maps. Clown maps generally are really not to be used verbatim, they're cool to look at and all, but they're based on algorithms that aren't perfect I'm sure... And idk where you're getting this easterly wind thing... At what level? At hour 18 winds look to be out of the NE at 10m and then continue to back as the frames advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 PSU Ewall maps for the norlun: Hour 54 is snow in NJ, mix /snow in NYC and rain/sleet to the east Hour 60: changeover in NJ suburbs, NYC is rain Hour 66: all rain east of I-81 Congrats Syracuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Guys, just remember, 12 hours before the recent blizzard the NAM had Northern New Jersey getting 25-40 inches of snow. The end result was 4-16 inches. Expect the same results here. Showing 10-20, expect 2-6 over the next 3 days. The NAM has serious issues, and as far as the high resolution NAM goes, honestly, forget about it. It was not 12 hours before...NAM had corrected by then. And NCEP said there were initialization issues with that run that showed the insane QPF bomb over NJ. In any case NAM has been very consistent since yesterday, and is in general agreement with the SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hi-res NAM has the inverted trough as well. Close to 1.75"+ for everyone in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 PSU Ewall maps for the norlun: Hour 54 is snow in NJ, mix /snow in NYC and rain/sleet to the north Congrats Syracuse The NAM's thermal profiles during this period are not supported by any model . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 For who? Certainly not NW areas. sounding i have go to 60 and all snow perhaps( except hr 42-45 when its light precip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It snows forever and ever on the NAM What's even more interesting is the euro is much colder with the inverted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 i would not over-analyze the nam's thermal profiles for the inverted trough, this far out especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Guys, just remember, 12 hours before the recent blizzard the NAM had Northern New Jersey getting 25-40 inches of snow. The end result was 4-16 inches. Expect the same results here. Showing 10-20, expect 2-6 over the next 3 days. The NAM has serious issues, and as far as the high resolution NAM goes, honestly, forget about it. Until any global model shows anything even remotely like this, it is pure model fantasy by the NAM. NO that was 24 hrs before the event the Next Morning as storm was getting started it moved all those jackpot numbers to Upstate NY and Conn which turned out correct. If this were to do same it would change by 9 am tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NO that was 24 hrs before the event the Next Morning as storm was getting started it moved all those jackpot numbers to Upstate NY and Conn which turned out correct. If this were to do same it would change by 9 am tomorrow. That run was the 0z run, it started snowing by 7am the next day, that is 10 hours later. The NAM has serious issues. It will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So at 60 hours we are talking about it still snowing at 7:00AM Friday morning? What time is the next important run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 i would not analyze the nam's thermal profiles for the inverted trough, this far out especially... It's been very screwy with its thermals, I mean it was torching us for tomorrow just yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'd hesitate to call it all or mostly snow in NYC. There's a lot of easterly flow and the low-level temps aren't very good. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of coastal areas stay rain for much longer than what we'd find comfortable. Keep in mind even though the last NAM printed out 1-1.25" QPF, NYC only had about 6-8" on the clown maps. As far as the initial slug of precipitation goes, with the cold conveyor belt developing on the NAM, I couldn't disagree with you more. This run isn't really even close to providing precipiation problems for most people aside from those sitting on the beach. The 925 hPa low is closed off well offshore and there is cold air funneling down with strong northeast winds. I don't foresee any problems once moderate precipitation begins. Sure it could start as drizzle or rain, but its going to be mostly snow. Also, not sure what "only" 6-8" means...the 18z NAM clown maps had closer to 10" for NYC and given 1" of QPF in March that makes a ton of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 And next we're gonna get a crappy run from the gfs and everyone's gonna complain that it sucks or something's wrong with it right? And next we're gonna get a crappy run from the gfs and everyone's gonna complain that it sucks or something's wrong with it right? You figure the GFS at least will be drier, more likely than not it will be both SE and drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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