Absolute Humidity Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 RGEM has done well this year with low placement and precip plots. I'd call it a good compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The EURO will sort out this mess in 2 hours. the euro had around .75 if i'm not mistaken. if that's the case, we can pretty much say with a good deal of certainty that we're getting QPF close to an inch IMO. then, it's just a question of now-casting with a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The major differences are with that last piece of northern stream energy dropping in. It's more of a kicker on the GFS and helps to tug it closer to the coast on the NAM. The new GFS doesn't even have the norlun trough which just about every other model shows. I was going to post that which is why I think the Euro will come closer to the Nam later than the GFS cause at least they were similar with the Norlun. Also the GFS was on the Same page as Nam this time last night but somehow today it completely reversed and went the opposite way while the Nam held strong. That is the Reason along with Nam being made for the short range and being hi res which is why I am leaning toward Nam over the GFS as of right now not cause it shows more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think channel 7 is going to up there totals. according to LG, new snow maps with new amounts. And they were raising the amounts in DC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 UKMET looks better than the GFS hour 30 missing 36 The UKMET is also known to have a progressive bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 UKMET looks better than the GFS hour 30 missing 36 That's not half bad actually. Would be really interested to see what hour 30 would have looked like. Either way, it confirms that the GFS is an extreme se outlier right now at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 When even the Ukmet looks better than the gfs, then yeah something's up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 rgem precip that falls as snow That is about 0.3 in as snow. Max 10:1 ratios means max 2-3" inches. How in the world is the rgem a solid hit for us ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 When even the Ukmet looks better than the gfs, then yeah something's up. I remember how the GFS and UKMET insisted on sending Boxing Day out to sea the morning of. The frustrating thing is that the GFS had been so consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That is about 0.3 in as snow. Max 10:1 ratios means max 2-3" inches. How in the world is the rgem a solid hit for us ? For the NYC area east it's 10-15mm snow. That's 0.4-0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That's not half bad actually. Would be really interested to see what hour 30 would have looked like. Either way, it confirms that the GFS is an extreme se outlier right now at least. I think the GFS can just about be disregarded here to be honest. It seems to actually be doubling down on its random QPF blob over the open ocean, and you can clearly see our main precip batch diminish as it kicks up, and it pulls the whole system east/out. I guess it could pull a rabbit out of the hat once, but I don't see that happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 How did the GFS initialize compare to the current radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That is about 0.3 in as snow. Max 10:1 ratios means max 2-3" inches. How in the world is the rgem a solid hit for us ? 7 - 10 is .3 - .4 inches . Factor in the RGEM's known warm bias and the snow could be a decent bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I remember how the GFS and UKMET insisted on sending Boxing Day out to sea the morning of. The frustrating thing is that the GFS had been so consistent. Gfs did catch back on first though after all the models lost it 2 days before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 For the zero to 48 hour time period I would favor the regional models. In addition the meso scale models would handle the ocean interactions with this type of storm much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The UKMET is also known to have a progressive bias. I am somewhat more concerned about the main precip batch edging us than the absurd GFS way of just killing the whole thing. The SE trend on the upper low makes it somewhat of a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 For the NYC area east it's 10-15mm snow. That's 0.4-0.6 what model is 15-20mm of qpf is snow? I hope you arent referring to the RGEM..cuz its clearly 7.5-10 for NYC west and 10-15 NYC east BUT, there might be more precip after hr48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I just had to delete nearly an entire page of posts, and I'm usually not that strict of a moderator. The bickering and awful tone seriously needs to stop. Yep, I've been deleting like mad too. Keep in mind we're in storm mode, guys. Take the model performance debate to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I remember how the GFS and UKMET insisted on sending Boxing Day out to sea the morning of. The frustrating thing is that the GFS had been so consistent. No it was a hit all day yesterday and barely anything all day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 what model is 15-20mm of qpf is snow? I hope you arent referring to the RGEM..cuz its clearly 7.5-10 for NYC west and 10-15 NYC east BUT, there might be more precip after hr48 I edited my post before...it was the lighter shade of yellow that was 15-20 that I mistook as being over LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That is about 0.3 in as snow. Max 10:1 ratios means max 2-3" inches. How in the world is the rgem a solid hit for us ? It's about 6 plus inches of snow. An inch of liq is 25 mm .15 to .20 isn't 2 to 3 inches my man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Place this to the 00z run ....for the 6th At 25 hrs turns over to sleet .. By 27 turns over to snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's about 6 plus inches of snow. An inch of liq is 25 mm .15 to .20 isn't 2 to 3 inches my man Thanks for clarifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That's not half bad actually. Would be really interested to see what hour 30 would have looked like. Either way, it confirms that the GFS is an extreme se outlier right now at least. You can see hour 30 here until meteocentre updates: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1594&ech=6&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Look at DCA no way it would be raining at this time and with that radar, you can easily see a warm surface bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lee Goldberg Part 1 . 1 to 3 nyc. 3 to 6 CNJ and LI. Part. 2 1 to 3. Nyc east. Nothing south. Total 4 to 6 plus from city east thru CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Place this to the 00z run ....for the 6th At 25 hrs turns over to sleet .. By 27 turns over to snow... I doubt that its rain way up into NY state and New England. Way too warm ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Place this to the 00z run ....for the 6th I_nw_r1_EST_2013030600_020.png At 25 hrs turns over to sleet .. By 27 turns over to snow... long duration event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I doubt that its rain way up into NY state and New England. Way too warm ! Those ptype panels are always wrong and way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You can see hour 30 here until meteocentre updates: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1594&ech=6&archive=0 still precipitating between hr 60 and 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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