kevbo81 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lee Goldberg Part 1 . 1 to 3 nyc. 3 to 6 CNJ and LI. Part. 2 1 to 3. Nyc east. Nothing south. Total 4 to 6 plus from city east thru CNJ. jb also biting on the Norlum idea in his latest post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ridiculous. Precip has already started in DC, And here we are trying to figure out what's going to happen. The model divergence is unprecedented with <24 hrs of lead time. We've seen model wars before at 60/48 sometimes 36 hrs...but <24 is a first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GGEM seems north of 12z and loaded with more qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Look at DCA no way it would be raining at this time and with that radar, you can easily see a warm surface bias. Got to go back to the hours around 11 and before to see it snow in those areas..it then turns to rain in later frames.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GGEM seems north of 12z and loaded with more qpf. Where are you seeing the ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Where are you seeing the ggem? I have it on WSI. It's well north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GGEM seems north of 12z and loaded with more qpf. GGEM is very good actually. If you factor in its hideous warm bias, that is easily warning criteria snow for NYC metro IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Geez. If euro holds serve I think we may start to get some consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 GGEM is way northwest of its 12z run...lots of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GGEM is very good actually. If you factor in its hideous warm bias, that is easily warning criteria snow for NYC metro IMHO. Yet more reason to think the GFS is just off. If the Euro comes in better, that's absolutely the way to go. This is a discussion we usually have 3-4 days out, not 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 interesting to note a lot of areas near DC didnt see rain at the outset of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Place this to the 00z run ....for the 6th I_nw_r1_EST_2013030600_020.png At 25 hrs turns over to sleet .. By 27 turns over to snow... Where are you seeing the ggem?Fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GGEM is very good actually. If you factor in its hideous warm bias, that is easily warning criteria snow for NYC metro IMHO.Especially now that midatlantic forum is posting snow rain mix in N Virginia ATM. I'm at 28.7/24 now.Wow, just hit 1000 posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The GFS is all by its self now. Great to see the GGEM looking like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Huge shift on ggem wonder if euro will follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If the Euro stay Geez. If euro holds serve I think we may start to get some consensus Yeh .75 is all we need. I don't like this 2 part scenario. It never works. We want as much on the front end as we can get. The back end stuff had to b taken w a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yet more reason to think the GFS is just off. If the Euro comes in better, that's absolutely the way to go. This is a discussion we usually have 3-4 days out, not 18 hours. Lol heck even the UKIE is better than the GFS. I think the Canadian models are too warm, good with the qpf but too warm with temps as per usual. More snow than advertised on the Canadian models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 interesting to note a lot of areas near DC didnt see rain at the outset of precip I'm not very concerned about boundary layer. If we get into the major banded area of precip it should be snow everywhere on NNE winds. It would be a 32-33 degree shellacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If the Euro stayYeh .75 is all we need. I don't like this 2 part scenario. It never works. We want as much on the front end as we can get. The back end stuff had to b taken w a grain of salt. Agreed. I do think we get some with that inverted trough though. Would probably only be of the 1-3 variety but if we get 2-3 out of it it'd be a nice plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GGEM is way northwest of its 12z run...lots of QPF What did it show in terms of qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I dont think we going to get much with this storm. But what i think doesnt matter...this storm can be a surprise to some..and a bust to others. But if you really check. The GFS doesnt give SNE much while the EURO gives 2 inches and more of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ridiculous. Precip has already started in DC, And here we are trying to figure out what's going to happen. The model divergence is unprecedented with <24 hrs of lead time. We've seen model wars before at 60/48 sometimes 36 hrs...but <24 is a first Lol ya its hilarious....precip on our doorstep and we're unsure if it will be 1" or 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If the Euro stayYeh .75 is all we need. I don't like this 2 part scenario. It never works. We want as much on the front end as we can get. The back end stuff had to b taken w a grain of salt. Well feb 8, we relied on the wraparound snows for us to benefit so it can def workout for us. I agree though that I prefer a good front end just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Especially now that midatlantic forum is posting snow rain mix in N Virginia ATM. I'm at 28.7/24 now. Wow, just hit 1000 posts. Good pick up. Manasas VA forecast was for 4 to 6 after 4 hrs of rain. Started as snow. Stayed snow and now it's point and click is 8 to 12 just like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I dont think we going to get much with this storm. But what i think doesnt matter...this storm can be a surprise to some..and a bust to others. But if you really check. The GFS doesnt give SNE much while the EURO gives 2 inches and more of liquid. and just yesterday it was the opposite...this is the problem forecasters are running into. guidance has been all the over place and flip flopping with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol ya its hilarious....precip on our doorstep and we're unsure if it will be 1" or 6" theoretically it could be the difference between 1" and 12" (or more) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Snow came in like a wall to N VA. Having the GGEM jog way to the north is very very comforting and the radar looks good. Please someone post the MM5 when it comes out, it was very accurate IMO on 2/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Well feb 8, we relied on the wraparound snows for us to benefit so it can def workout for us. I agree though that I prefer a good front end just in case. CCB diff than a Norlun for us. I m not a fan However just read JB and the 700 mb field is soaked thrs so I guess it's possible he seems to think 12 is possible for the city. NW and accross LI. When all said and done. Bold , but joe is bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 2z RAP looks really good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This is just my observation but this seems to be similar to Sandy in that the GFS was the southeastern outlier to the other models and wasn't until she was on our doorstep when the goofus finally caved to the other models (especially the Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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