green tube Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Although the storm has not even affected the area, a few things come to mind tonight. A) Climo normally wins out (although NYC might not see a foot of snow); it's clear as day that Richmond may barely see a dusting...138 Hr GFS had a historic snowstorm for that region, which many were touting even in here) We were better off in the early 2000's with less modeling and less frequent updates; It seems like we bounce around now more than any other time I can remember over the past ten years. C) People pay too much attention to the details on this board and should look at the synoptic setup instead (the BL issue earlier this evening is a perfect example) so it sounds like you're sticking to your guns, and still think there's a chance we can pull a rabbit from the hat... and do pretty well? ((i'd use more cliches but it's late)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Anyone have the SREF early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Would be shocked if the SREF didn't tick SE at this point and the NAM follow suit at 06/12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 SREFS are in...a bump SE through 42 hours compared to 21z. But they have just as much QPF in the end from the northern stream feature as the 21z run...ends up being around 1.25-1.50" liquid and the dominant precip type is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 JMA has about 1.00 QPF for the coastal and more with the trough. Here is the total precip. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif'>http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif That's thru sat. That's the total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Would be shocked if the SREF didn't tick SE at this point and the NAM follow suit at 06/12z. Very crucial between it and the nam if they hold serve that cant be overlooked at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 SREFS are in...a bump SE through 42 hours compared to 21z. But they have just as much QPF in the end from the northern stream feature as the 21z run...ends up being around 1.25-1.50" liquid and the dominant precip type is snow. Wow - impressive (that's not even including part 2 I'm assuming?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow - impressive (that's not even including part 2 I'm assuming?) that's including the inverted trough, which hits us pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 While , we ponder QPF that's not exactly a wall of snow headed up the turnpike. Lotta mid 30 s around the area on an E wind. Think I may side w the NAM SREF RGEM blend In terms of how much liquid. , trying to figure out how much i lose to the warm air at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM south (and east) of the 00z position with the h5 upper level low through 9 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 While , we ponder QPF that's not exactly a wall of snow headed up the turnpike. Lotta mid 30 s around the area on an E wind. Think I may side w the NAM SREF RGEM blend In terms of how much liquid. , trying to figure out how much i lose to the warm air at the surface. Saving grace is that both parts have a rather large portion of precip in darkness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Pretty clear that this NAM run is going to come in well south and east of the 00z run already. Amazing how stubborn these NCEP high resolution models can be...refusing to cave in until 9-15 hours before the main qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Comparing the NAM to the 18z run for sh*ts and giggles is a total joke..the best lift is hundreds of miles southeast on the NW fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Comparing the NAM to the 18z run for sh*ts and giggles is a total joke..the best lift is hundreds of miles southeast on the NW fringe. really? wow, still looks good to me but it is 3am and i do have my snow goggles on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Comparing the NAM to the 18z run for sh*ts and giggles is a total joke..the best lift is hundreds of miles southeast on the NW fringe. Pathetic. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 really? wow, still looks good to me but it is 3am and i do have my snow goggles on I'm sure it will still be decent...but as far as the CCB goes it's jumped southeast both at 00z and again this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Pathetic. Oh well. After the amount of times the NAM and high resolution NCEP models have done this, if you fell for it again even with the Euro showing a southeast solution for 6 runs in a row, you have nobody to blame but yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 MY God, the NAM absolutely levels DC through 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Through hour 15 the best vertical velocities are about 50-75 miles south/east of the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 MY God, the NAM absolutely levels DC through 12 hours. 1.25" QPF by hour 15 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Through hour 15 the best vertical velocities are about 50-75 miles south/east of the 00z run. With the euro holding steady with the coastal skimmer it was only a matter of time before the nam went back east. It's amazing how bad this model is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 1.25" QPF by hour 15 there. Well, they are due. But man oh man, thats some very impressive snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 At this point, the inverted trough might be the main show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Well, they are due. But man oh man, thats some very impressive snow. Best stuff in the day time for them and they are doing it with a warm surface..They should be able to pull off 6-10" though i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's recovering a bit at 18 hours with good UVV's now knocking on NYC's door and trying to back in from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 At this point, the inverted trough might be the main show We're going to need some serious luck if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This run really recovered. The best omegas and solid RH are actually a tad NW at 18 hours than they were at 24 hours on 00z. Oh, the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Best stuff in the day time for them and they are doing it with a warm surface..They should be able to pull off 6-10" though i think Its already ripping though. with rate like that the sun doesn't do too much damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 We're going to need some serious luck if you ask me. I think the inverted trough is legit, even the euro has it. NAM still looks like a decent hit with the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This run really recovered. The best omegas and solid RH are actually a tad NW at 18 hours than they were at 24 hours on 00z. Oh, the NAM. Less precip through 18 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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