earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM looked terrible initially but recovered...won't cave through 21 hours. NYC already at .5" at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 That northern stream shortwave is ever so slightly south, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Simulated radar imagery still isn't shabby at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The NAM is a tick SE Gotta let this run. Think the CCB shows up hrs 21 thu 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This might be even better than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Sim radar at 21 is even better then 27 on the 0z and 24 opposed to 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Another pretty big hit at hour 24. The changes initially were very poor but the NAM just refuses to give in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Pretty clear that this NAM run is going to come in well south and east of the 00z run already. Amazing how stubborn these NCEP high resolution models can be...refusing to cave in until 9-15 hours before the main qpf. you should probably delete this post of yours. This run rocks. SNJ getting raked even at 21 hours. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The simulated radar looks fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Liking through my NW NJ snow googles the NAM is def better than 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 you should probably delete this post of yours. This run rocks. SNJ getting raked even at 21 hours. . Lol. I don't delete posts because my analysis wasn't perfect. It looked much worse initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 make that getting raked at 24 hours as well ! then again...it is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Another pretty big hit at hour 24. The changes initially were very poor but the NAM just refuses to give in here. Sounds like you are surprised it has not backed off I especially how it initially looked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 0.75"+ already thru 27 and still snowing (NYC metro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Will match the 1.5 SREF when this done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If I look at the current radar it would stun me if the NAM didn't at least tug the Euro NW in the end. What a horrifically tough forecast for you pros!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 holy moses... over 2.00 QPF southern NJ....just after 27 hours ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol, despite how it looked this is another epic run. CCB crushed all of LI,NYC N Nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 everybody's on a weenie high at 3am. gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow this run might be better then 0z precip wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 holy moses... over 2.00 QPF southern NJ....just after 27 hours ? The last Nam Run had Extreme South Jersey at like 2.25 I believe if I recall right because My buddy in Delaware said he was between 2.25 and 2.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 holy moses... over 2.00 QPF southern NJ....just after 27 hours ? Watch for a low level warm layer there. I would check soundings especially closer to the shore. The NAM has a persistent warm layer near 925 hPa through 18 hours that shows up on the maps...and the boundary layer is warm too. I wouldn't be surprised to see a warm layer between the surface and 900 hPa and poor snow growth as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 SNJ losses a lot of this to rain with this initial slug of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah....down in Ocean County where I am it's probably near 2.5" with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 SNJ losses a lot of this to rain with this initial slug of moisture Could be the Southern half of the State gets More Precip than north Jersey but north Jersey makes up for it and gets more snow with colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Watch for a low level warm layer there. I would check soundings especially closer to the shore. The NAM has a persistent warm layer near 925 hPa through 18 hours that shows up on the maps...and the boundary layer is warm too. I wouldn't be surprised to see a warm layer between the surface and 900 hPa and poor snow growth as well. No doubt, but even after 18hr it's still over 1" of QPF. Heck, I just like watching it snow even if it's a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 LOL what does Upton do now? IMO at the very least is put out a WWA majority of modeling at least gives most advisory snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hmm on the nam radar it looks like the trough comes in as soon as the coastal precip leaves. There might not even be a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's time to start checking surface temps. 850s and 925s in the next few hours because the best lifting is roaring right up the coast and not east. Coastal areas gona have a hard time initially w an east wind. So mayb excruciating for a while late morning early afternoon. But you guys west of the city think you're gona do better than you originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 LOL what does Upton do now? IMO at the very least is put out a WWA majority of modeling at least gives most advisory snows. If GFS continues holding it's dry ground... this would make it even more challenging. Up poop's creek just forecasting 6 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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