killabud Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 i doubt they are very accurate,but per the wunderground ptype map most of long island and west is snow starting at 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 4k a tick SE at 21 with precip - more SE at 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Inverted trough on the regular NAM farther SW at 45hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 24hr sim on 4k is a thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM kills us with the trough, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Moderate precip overhead again at 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If GFS continues holding it's dry ground... this would make it even more challenging. Up poop's creek just forecasting 6 hours out. Well if Nam still looks good on next run I think its time to disregard the GFS especially if its still out in left field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 24hr sim on 4k is a thing of beauty It looks like it keeps the heaviest precip just off shore though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Moderate precip overhead again at 51 Again at 54hr. 850mb 0C line just NE of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Again at 54hr. 850mb 0C line just NE of NYC. 850's warm at 57 euro never gets that warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It looks like it keeps the heaviest precip just off shore though I'm a little further south than NYC. It's close for NYC. Probably a few miles at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 850's warm at 57 euro never gets that warm Maybe as we get closer that temp will go down in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 yeah looks like more rain than snow for LI with that trough... what is causing the 850s to move west then east then west again, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Maybe as we get closer that temp will go down in future runs. Even as is that is all snow for NYC thru 54. 1.75" qpf worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This run crushes us - the sharp cut off still has me worried, a shift of 50 miles changes the entire game on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm a little further south than NYC. It's close for NYC. Probably a few miles at most. Can you post an image of it please at its closest approach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Even as is that is all snow for NYC thru 54. 1.75" qpf worth. Yea just drizzle after 850s warm. Well, we should all do a snow dance and hope to hell the NAM/SREFS verify. If they do epic storm. But....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow we get crushed up here in the interior... This is getting ridiculous now smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This run turns out to be ridiculously wetter than even the 00z NAM. That trough goes nuts. The total QPF is just insane and doesn't look real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol, mets in forecast offices just got a whole lot more gray hair. Idk about that trough, but the fact the CCB is impressive is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Can you post an image of it please at its closest approach? 24hr and 27hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The way its barreling up the coast, if the nam verifies people might get stranded in the evening commute especially thinking 2-4 at most" - Upton should really issue something even a WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The wind/gusts is already picking up over here in Central NJ.. That also tells me the Winds are gonna be ripping during the height of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Can you post an image of it please at its closest approach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.phpUpton just up totals 4-8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 FWIW the NAM except for the 00z 3/5 run did very well the past few days with the inverted trough that just smacked us here in northern Illinois. 9.2", 4th largest calendar day snowfall on record for Chicago. Can definitely attest to inverted troughs producing, even in March, with a long duration moderate, occasionally heavy snow. The NAM actually did pretty well too with the big storm out here on 2/26, persistently showed higher qpf from far northeastern IL into east central Wisconsin that ended up being 12-18" of snow for those areas. Honestly don't know what to tell my family in Queens about this storm since the model differences this close to the event are unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The SIM radar on the 06Z nam at 30 hours shows almost the exact same thing the 00Z SPC WRF did, indication of two bands trying to set up with a subsidence zone in between, overall the entire run has a similar look to the SPC WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.phpUpton just up totals 4-8"+ Nice - a warning should go out soon then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 24hr and 27hr Thanks, looks like southern Queens and Brooklyn actually gets in on the heaviest banding. I wonder what the 0z MM5 showed since nobody mentioned it, or even the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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