Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Much colder than the NAM at 850mb with the inverted trough. Would be snow for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Much colder than the NAM at 850mb with the inverted trough. Would be snow for everyone. But do we actually have decent precip or just some snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Much colder than the NAM at 850mb with the inverted trough. Would be snow for everyone. lets go storm and lets go RU ( Class of 90) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 is this an either/or scenario regarding the snow?? i mean if we can get into the CCB tomorrow, does that take away our chances of cashing in on the norlun trough as well?? it would be really nice to have two parts that bring significant snowfall from Wed-Fri... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hours 66-72 the norlun is hiting the area and slowing moving out. Final precip totals sneak over 1" for the city and eastern areas. 0.50-0.75 for western areas. Keep in mind that a lot of that is from the norlun trough. I have to say I'm a bit dissapointed I stayed up for this one. Thought it would follow the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rough estimates NYC Coastal : .5 Northern Stream: 0.5 Eastern LI Coastal: 0.87 Northern Stream: 0.4 Northwest NJ Coastal: 0.20 Northern Stream: 0.35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 At 72 hours, there is about .75" of QPF for NYC. More as you go east with 1" from western Suffolk and east. 1.5" hits Montauk Point. .5" + for all of NJ. The .75" line goes from TTN and northeast through NYC. 1" line is oriented the same way, but probably about 20 miles south of the .75" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GGEM total qpf thru 48 thru 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rough estimates NYC Coastal : .5 Northern Stream: 0.5 Eastern LI Coastal: 0.87 Northern Stream: 0.4 Northwest NJ Coastal: 0.20 Northern Stream: 0.35 this means Euro held serve almost exactly same outcome as last run with same % for part I and part II Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 is this an either/or scenario regarding the snow?? i mean if we can get into the CCB tomorrow, does that take away our chances of cashing in on the norlun trough as well?? it would be really nice to have two parts that bring significant snowfall from Wed-Fri... You want the NAM, it's the best of both worlds but if we did miss out on the CCB the Euro gives us a nice consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 So basically this will be a real nowcasting storm as the models remain split as the precip creeps to the north on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rough estimates NYC Coastal : .5 Northern Stream: 0.5 Eastern LI Coastal: 0.87 Northern Stream: 0.4 Northwest NJ Coastal: 0.20 Northern Stream: 0.35 NYC is .36" through hour 48. And at least half of it is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Seems like the euro and ggem are similar with the initial ocean(wed-thu am) then the wrap around (thu pm - fri am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You definitely want the ccb before the trough, ccb would allow for the best chance of accumulating snow. May have to settle for the trough though, close call for the entire area. Probably wouldn't need much to get the ccb into the area, but unfortunatly we are almost out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 JMA has about 1.00 QPF for the coastal and more with the trough. Here is the total precip. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Rough estimates NYC Coastal : .5 Northern Stream: 0.5 Eastern LI Coastal: 0.87 Northern Stream: 0.4 Northwest NJ Coastal: 0.20 Northern Stream: 0.35 You said CCB clips Jeresy shore. Would that put say BLM over .75? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 To me now the key will be if the 6z nam ticks south or holds. Then I would see it as the Euro bending towards the HI-res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Euro is .70" for Knyc. Half from coastal. A bunch of it is lost due to daytime but still be 3-"5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 JMA has about 1.00 QPF for the coastal and more with the trough. Here is the total precip. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif That lightest blue is 0.75 - 1.00 for the entire 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 2-4 NYC long-duration light snow glancing blow in March in urban heat island = fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Euro totals: NYC: .70". (.36" from coastal) LGA: .74" (.38" from coastal) ISP: 1.02" (.56" from coastal) BDR: .87" (.36" from coastal) PHL: .82" (.66" from coastal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This is the reverse of the March 2001 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 2-4 NYC long-duration light snow glancing blow in March in urban heat island = fail exactly. This will be like 2 days of flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This is the reverse of the March 2001 storm. meaning what? march 2001: big hype... turned into long duration light snows totaling several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Precip is exploding over the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This is the reverse of the March 2001 storm. So this will phase quicker and have a greater impact on our area? Is that what you are implying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 exactly. This will be like 2 days of flurries. I dont know about that even if Euro is right probably a few inches but if Nam and SREFs hold next couple runs I would believe them over Euro at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Probably more like the inversion of March 2001. Long duration, little accumulation, light snow falling all day...north gets slammed. March 2013...long duration, little accumulation, light snow falling all day...south gets slammed Although the storm has not even affected the area, a few things come to mind tonight. A) Climo normally wins out (although NYC might not see a foot of snow); it's clear as day that Richmond may barely see a dusting...138 Hr GFS had a historic snowstorm for that region, which many were touting even in here) We were better off in the early 2000's with less modeling and less frequent updates; It seems like we bounce around now more than any other time I can remember over the past ten years. C) People pay too much attention to the details on this board and should look at the synoptic setup instead (the BL issue earlier this evening is a perfect example) meaning what? march 2001: big hype... turned into long duration light snows totaling several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 exactly. This will be like 2 days of flurries. Not sure where you're getting this from but no model shows this except the GFS and it's an outlier at this point. Still like my 3-6'' call I've stuck with since Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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