96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 By hr 14 it's better than 6z. Epic epic fail or the greatest model coup in recent memory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 somehow its back on track at hr12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 15, NW areas are starting to changeover but the precip is light out that way. Moderate precip getting about 30 miles NW of the city. ACY getting into the core of heavier precip. All of Long Island in moderate precip. Surface freezing line is right on the edge of the heavier precip (just inland of NYC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 somehow its back on track at hr12 Ace I think what it is...is that it comes in quicker than 6z. If you compare 12 hours for example with 6z's 15 hours (rather than the usual 18)....it's almost identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 18 it's a glancing blow by the CCB. Surface freezing line near the city. Light precip extending back to the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 somehow its back on track at hr12 It seems to really want to get dynamics going up here even with a more unfavorable upper low track, much more than many other models. Essentially the 180 deg opposite of the GFS. Again, I personally have little clue which way to go. If the GFS wasn't so wretchedly overdone with the feedback, I would go with it. If I had to guess I'd say that precip grazes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If the NAM is correct not much going on today except some light wet snow and rain. Haven't looked at the high res simulated radars but I'm sure they will look good because they almost always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 21 again a glancing blow by the CCB. The best dynamics so far are offshore. Surface freezing line is hanging NW of the city, actually moving a bit northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Eh precip does pull out much quicker. A good 6+ hours quicker. Sim radar less robust too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Eh precip does pull out much quicker. A good 6+ hours quicker. Sim radar less robust too I figure it would be overdone compared to 6z, never a good sign when the Euro isn't on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If you look at 500mb the flow tries to seperate from that northern stream wave at hour 15 but it never fully seperates which is great news. Should keep us in line for the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Call it a cave if you want, through hr 24 it's 0.50"+ on a line from KMMU up through SW CT. 0.25"-0.50" for the far NW burbs. The 0.75" line cuts from north of TTN, touching the city and the southshore of Long Island. Keep in mind that mostly everything so far would be with the surface above freezing from the city east verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The simulated radars are still impressive and show steady precip moving in within the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 With the NAM looking like it's finally caving it's very likely the CCB is just a glancing blow and if that maybe for eastern/southern areas where it will be warmer. What a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Talk about a sharp cutoff, Someone in the Poconos might get several inches of snow and Harrisburg could get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Call it a cave if you want, through hr 24 it's 0.50"+ on a line from KMMU up through SW CT. 0.25"-0.50" for the far NW burbs. The 0.75" line cuts from north of TTN, touching the city and the southshore of Long Island. Keep in mind that mostly everything so far would be with the surface above freezing from the city east verbatim. And before the inverted trough potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 30 it's throwing some really light precip back to NJ, perhaps it's the beginning of the norlun trough, either way it looks like precip would shut off for the majority of us for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The 12z NAM is about .25" less with the coastal low than the 6z NAM was (precip through 24 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 And before the inverted trough potential... That's correct, it was encouraging to see the models continue to come in very robust with that trough. If the SREF's are correct someone could see warning criteria snowfall NW of the city from that alone. Very tricky forecast remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I don't have a good feeling about this storm, its 40f and rising, the radar looks meh. On the plus side, the winds are pretty strong already, which is bad for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If you want to base it off the simulated radars alone, steady precip is going to be here and the radar is going to look impressive. The problem is getting the surface to cool with the better dynamics continuing to move offshore. This could be a scenario where places like Vernon and West Milford do really well because of the elevation and places like Morristown are lucky to see more than a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 12z NAM totals through hour 30 (coastal) look nearly identical to the srefs and rgem; SOLID: NYC: .71"LGA: .72"BDR: .58"JFK: .83"EWR: .74"ISP: .90" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 36 the inverted trough is taking over but the surface freezing line is some 30 miles NW of the city. At 36 hours the main low is some 200 miles southeast of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 With the NAM looking like it's finally caving it's very likely the CCB is just a glancing blow and if that maybe for eastern/southern areas where it will be warmer. What a shame. There is just enough suppression with the -AO peaking to keep the best precip totals to our east again. We generally do better when the storms happen a few days after the lowest readings with an uptrend in the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 At 500mb the NAM is now way southeast of where it was showing some if it's mega hits the past few days. Siting some 200 miles SE of the benchmark with the surface low at hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 12z NAM totals through hour 30 (coastal) look nearly identical to the srefs and rgem; SOLID: NYC: .71" LGA: .72" BDR: .58" JFK: .83" EWR: .74" ISP: .90" Much of that will be during daylight hours with temps above freezing. But if I can squeeze out 3 to 4" of heavy wet snow tonight I'll be happy. Should be a nice pretty snowfall that sticks to everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam looks pretty good for Thursday night fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Mega inverted trough setting up at hour 39. Surface freezing line hanging around the city. In this setup the city and Long Island might not see any significant accumulations at all. This looks to be an interior and elevation driven special. Greater than 0.50" per hour rates showing up 100-150 miles north northwest of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Much of that will be during daylight hours with temps above freezing. But if I can squeeze out 3 to 4" of heavy wet snow tonight I'll be happy. Should be a nice pretty snowfall that sticks to everything. Not true. Pretty much all of that precip falls from 0-24 hours, meaning it ends at 7 a.m. So, most of it falls at night. The inverted trough is coming in now and looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 i really think the main show will be tomorrow night into friday morning from the trough looks juicy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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