Significant Ocean Storm March 6-8 2013 Discussion Part III

[Allsnow]

Hr 48 mod snow

[IsentropicLift]

Hour 48 it's a dumbed down version of the NAM. It's a good hit but not like the NAM.

[PB GFI]

NAM starts the inverted trough at hr 36 GFS looks nothing like the NAM .

[ag3]

GFS through hour 30 (coastal):

NYC: .38"
LGA: .39"
JFK: .41"
ISP: .48"
BDR: .37"
PHL: 64"

Just want to caution that boundary layer looks pretty damn warm. Especially for JFK, ISP and PHL. NYC/LGA/BDR get to 33 degrees by tomorrow morning.

[snywx]

I just can't believe how much snow the NAM shows for the interior. If its correct ( probably not) then someone up here gets 2' of snow smh..

[WintersGrasp]

As seen down in DC, it is the kind of storm where after all is said and done....NYC could have 2" on the ground, NE NJ 3-4" and NW NJ (high point, west Milford) 8-12". GFS clearly DOES show the inverted trough dropping in through hours 45-48, etc....would be a couple inches here if it happens. NAM is always best at showing the banding, which is a good sign, though I'd like the banding to be heavier over lower elevations as well

[NaoPos]

NAM starts the inverted trough at hr 36 GFS looks nothing like the NAM .

GFS starts it at 36 too

[allgame830]

good to see the GFS is finally picking up on the trough ... last to join the party in regards to that.... looks decent on the GFS

[IsentropicLift]

Hour 51 we warm up and the trough exits. It initally sets up forthern northeast so we don't do quite as well. I guess it's not a bad solution overall. QPF totals aren't even half of what the NAM shows for both events combined. Snow maps show 4-8" for most interests in northern NJ and 8-12" for western Mass.

[IsentropicLift]

I just can't believe how much snow the NAM shows for the interior. If its correct ( probably not) then someone up here gets 2' of snow smh..

KSWF

 

130306/2200Z  10  04018KT  37.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00   17|  0| 83

130306/2300Z  11  04018KT  35.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   40|  0| 60

130307/0000Z  12  03017KT  33.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04   67|  0| 33

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130307/0100Z  13  03018KT  32.4F  SNOW   13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   13:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06   90|  0| 10

130307/0200Z  14  03018KT  32.1F  SNOW   10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   12:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0

130307/0300Z  15  03018KT  31.5F  SNOW   14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016   12:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0

130307/0400Z  16  02017KT  31.0F  SNOW   11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023   12:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0

130307/0500Z  17  02017KT  30.5F  SNOW   13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029   12:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0

130307/0600Z  18  01017KT  30.3F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032   11:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130307/0700Z  19  01018KT  30.1F  SNOW   10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028   11:1|  1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21  100|  0|  0

130307/0800Z  20  01018KT  29.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   11:1|  2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22  100|  0|  0

130307/0900Z  21  01018KT  29.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   11:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0

130307/1000Z  22  01019KT  29.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   11:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24    0|  0|  0

130307/1100Z  23  01019KT  29.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   11:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24    0|  0|  0

130307/1200Z  24  01018KT  29.6F  SNOW   11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008   11:1|  2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130307/1300Z  25  01019KT  29.9F  SNPL    7:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.018   10:1|  2.3|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.26   77| 23|  0

130307/1400Z  26  01019KT  31.2F  SNPL    5:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.015   10:1|  2.4|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.28   53| 47|  0

130307/1500Z  27  01019KT  32.6F  SNPL    4:1| 0.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.013   10:1|  2.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.29   36| 58|  6

130307/1600Z  28  01019KT  34.1F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008   10:1|  2.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.30   48| 36| 16

130307/1700Z  29  01018KT  34.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   10:1|  2.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.31   73|  0| 27

130307/1800Z  30  36017KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   10:1|  2.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.33   83|  0| 17

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130307/1900Z  31  36017KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032   10:1|  2.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.36   86|  0| 14

130307/2000Z  32  36017KT  32.3F  SNOW   13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043   10:1|  3.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.40  100|  0|  0

130307/2100Z  33  36018KT  31.9F  SNOW   14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045   11:1|  3.6|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.45  100|  0|  0

130307/2200Z  34  36018KT  31.9F  SNOW   12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022   11:1|  3.9|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0

130307/2300Z  35  36018KT  31.0F  SNOW   13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   11:1|  4.2|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.49  100|  0|  0

130308/0000Z  36  36017KT  30.5F  SNOW   14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037   11:1|  4.7|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.53  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130308/0100Z  37  36017KT  30.1F  SNOW   14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054   11:1|  5.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.58  100|  0|  0

130308/0200Z  38  36016KT  29.9F  SNOW   14:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066   12:1|  6.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.65  100|  0|  0

130308/0300Z  39  36016KT  29.9F  SNOW   14:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089   12:1|  7.5|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.74  100|  0|  0

130308/0400Z  40  35015KT  29.7F  SNOW   12:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098   12:1|  8.7|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.83  100|  0|  0

130308/0500Z  41  35015KT  29.7F  SNOW   10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115   12:1|  9.9|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.95  100|  0|  0

130308/0600Z  42  35015KT  29.7F  SNOW   10:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127   12:1| 11.2|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.08  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130308/0700Z  43  36015KT  29.7F  SNOW   13:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.150   12:1| 13.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.23  100|  0|  0

130308/0800Z  44  36016KT  29.6F  SNOW   14:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141   12:1| 15.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.37  100|  0|  0

130308/0900Z  45  36017KT  29.4F  SNOW   14:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.118   12:1| 16.8|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.49  100|  0|  0

130308/1000Z  46  36017KT  29.4F  SNOW   12:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089   12:1| 17.9|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.57  100|  0|  0

130308/1100Z  47  01018KT  29.2F  SNOW   11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102   12:1| 19.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.68  100|  0|  0

130308/1200Z  48  01018KT  29.2F  SNOW   11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102   12:1| 20.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.78  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130308/1300Z  49  01019KT  30.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.083   12:1| 20.1|| 0.04|| 0.09|| 1.86    0|  0|100

130308/1400Z  50  01018KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.026   12:1| 20.1|| 0.04|| 0.11|| 1.89    0|  0|100

130308/1500Z  51  01018KT  31.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005   12:1| 20.1|| 0.04|| 0.12|| 1.89    0|  0|100

 

[jm1220]

As seen down in DC, it is the kind of storm where after all is said and done....NYC could have 2" on the ground, NE NJ 3-4" and NW NJ (high point, west Milford) 8-12"

This sort of reminds me of a clipper we had on March 16?, 2004 where we were all supposed to have 4-6" or so of snow, but since the intensity of the snow was fairly poor, only places away from the city accumulated much. And much it fell at night and during the morning hours. It's not a done deal that much accumulates especially near the city if rates from the coastal aren't good, or the inverted trough. This has to be one of the toughest forecast situations that mets have dealt with in years.

[IsentropicLift]

Okay even the GFS shows warning criteria snowfall now for the western burbs, time for a warning to be hoisted, this is getting ridiculous.

[Zelocita Weather]

Looks like 0.5" -0.6" for most in NE NJ/NYC on the GFS...certianly a move towards the EURO/NAM/RGEM

[WintersGrasp]

As seen down in DC, it is the kind of storm where after all is said and done....NYC could have 2" on the ground, NE NJ 3-4" and NW NJ (high point, west Milford) 8-12"

This sort of reminds me of a clipper we had on March 16?, 2004 where we were all supposed to have 4-6" or so of snow, but since the intensity of the snow was fairly poor, only places away from the city accumulated much. And much it fell at night and during the morning hours. It's not a done deal that much accumulates especially near the city if rates from the coastal aren't good, or the inverted trough. This has to be one of the toughest forecast situations that mets have dealt with in years.

That's not really an unusual scenario. This one has been hyped so much but the potential is there and even likely that we only get a couple inches of snow from both events combined in lower elevations

[PB GFI]

The trough idea is so difficult to have set up over any one area , the models usually arent good until the day

Weve been over this twice this year . If you get sucked into this , shame on you .

I wouldnt take this serously until the day of , and I think most offices will really take a wait and see approach on this .

As far as today goes dont know if the dynamics are there now to turn this over to anything meaningful

BL are awful and now you wana drop .50 over 24 hrs , dont think that gets it done .

If you are looking for the trough to save this , all you have done is moved the goal post .

[snywx]

KSWF

 

130306/2200Z  10  04018KT  37.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00   17|  0| 83

130306/2300Z  11  04018KT  35.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   40|  0| 60

130307/0000Z  12  03017KT  33.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04   67|  0| 33

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130307/0100Z  13  03018KT  32.4F  SNOW   13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   13:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06   90|  0| 10

130307/0200Z  14  03018KT  32.1F  SNOW   10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   12:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0

130307/0300Z  15  03018KT  31.5F  SNOW   14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016   12:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0

130307/0400Z  16  02017KT  31.0F  SNOW   11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023   12:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0

130307/0500Z  17  02017KT  30.5F  SNOW   13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029   12:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0

130307/0600Z  18  01017KT  30.3F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032   11:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130307/0700Z  19  01018KT  30.1F  SNOW   10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028   11:1|  1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21  100|  0|  0

130307/0800Z  20  01018KT  29.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   11:1|  2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22  100|  0|  0

130307/0900Z  21  01018KT  29.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   11:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0

130307/1000Z  22  01019KT  29.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   11:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24    0|  0|  0

130307/1100Z  23  01019KT  29.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   11:1|  2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24    0|  0|  0

130307/1200Z  24  01018KT  29.6F  SNOW   11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008   11:1|  2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130307/1300Z  25  01019KT  29.9F  SNPL    7:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.018   10:1|  2.3|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.26   77| 23|  0

130307/1400Z  26  01019KT  31.2F  SNPL    5:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.015   10:1|  2.4|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.28   53| 47|  0

130307/1500Z  27  01019KT  32.6F  SNPL    4:1| 0.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.013   10:1|  2.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.29   36| 58|  6

130307/1600Z  28  01019KT  34.1F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008   10:1|  2.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.30   48| 36| 16

130307/1700Z  29  01018KT  34.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   10:1|  2.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.31   73|  0| 27

130307/1800Z  30  36017KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   10:1|  2.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.33   83|  0| 17

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130307/1900Z  31  36017KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032   10:1|  2.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.36   86|  0| 14

130307/2000Z  32  36017KT  32.3F  SNOW   13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043   10:1|  3.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.40  100|  0|  0

130307/2100Z  33  36018KT  31.9F  SNOW   14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045   11:1|  3.6|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.45  100|  0|  0

130307/2200Z  34  36018KT  31.9F  SNOW   12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022   11:1|  3.9|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.47  100|  0|  0

130307/2300Z  35  36018KT  31.0F  SNOW   13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   11:1|  4.2|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.49  100|  0|  0

130308/0000Z  36  36017KT  30.5F  SNOW   14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037   11:1|  4.7|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.53  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130308/0100Z  37  36017KT  30.1F  SNOW   14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054   11:1|  5.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.58  100|  0|  0

130308/0200Z  38  36016KT  29.9F  SNOW   14:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066   12:1|  6.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.65  100|  0|  0

130308/0300Z  39  36016KT  29.9F  SNOW   14:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089   12:1|  7.5|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.74  100|  0|  0

130308/0400Z  40  35015KT  29.7F  SNOW   12:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098   12:1|  8.7|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.83  100|  0|  0

130308/0500Z  41  35015KT  29.7F  SNOW   10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115   12:1|  9.9|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.95  100|  0|  0

130308/0600Z  42  35015KT  29.7F  SNOW   10:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127   12:1| 11.2|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.08  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130308/0700Z  43  36015KT  29.7F  SNOW   13:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.150   12:1| 13.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.23  100|  0|  0

130308/0800Z  44  36016KT  29.6F  SNOW   14:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141   12:1| 15.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.37  100|  0|  0

130308/0900Z  45  36017KT  29.4F  SNOW   14:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.118   12:1| 16.8|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.49  100|  0|  0

130308/1000Z  46  36017KT  29.4F  SNOW   12:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089   12:1| 17.9|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.57  100|  0|  0

130308/1100Z  47  01018KT  29.2F  SNOW   11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102   12:1| 19.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.68  100|  0|  0

130308/1200Z  48  01018KT  29.2F  SNOW   11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102   12:1| 20.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.78  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130308/1300Z  49  01019KT  30.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.083   12:1| 20.1|| 0.04|| 0.09|| 1.86    0|  0|100

130308/1400Z  50  01018KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.026   12:1| 20.1|| 0.04|| 0.11|| 1.89    0|  0|100

130308/1500Z  51  01018KT  31.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005   12:1| 20.1|| 0.04|| 0.12|| 1.89    0|  0|100

 

Its too bad you can't do a bufkit for MGJ.. Probably shows 24"+

[ag3]

UKMET looks good for tonight's coastal and also very good for the trough tomorrow night.

[Allsnow]

SV maps are 2-4 from Ttn to NYC. From 78 north 4-8

[Kaner587]

Looks like 0.5" -0.6" for most in NE NJ/NYC on the GFS...certianly a move towards the EURO/NAM/RGEM

Total qpf is higher than that. Probbly around 0.7-0.75 for NYC

[IsentropicLift]

Pretty robust thunderstorm activity ongoing off the VA capes. Not sure if that might be causing some convective feedback issues.

[MJO812]

PB, it's not a norlun.All the models are now showing this. It's a vigorous shortwave that interacts with the storm. It's certainly possible.

[Allsnow]

Ukmet is amazing for tomorrow night

[IsentropicLift]

UKMET looks good for tonight's coastal and also very good for the trough tomorrow night.

Can you post? Surprising to see, that model is normally SE of everything else.

[WintersGrasp]

Eh...it kinda softens the blow knowing that whatever does accumulate won't be around more than a couple days anyway

[MJO812]

Ukue looks really nice with the trough

[IsentropicLift]

PB, it's not a norlun.All the models are now showing this. It's a vigorous shortwave that interacts with the storm. It's certainly possible.

Yeah I was about to say, thank god for this piece of energy, otherwise she would be way OTS. It's helping to stretch the precip fields back NW before the other precip fires.

[IsentropicLift]

Eh...it kinda softens the blow knowing that whatever does accumulate won't be around more than a couple days anyway

It's March, what do you expect? We take this as our last real storm threat of the year and run with it. After this we can get ready for Spring.

[ace0927]

anyone notice the radar and what coming in off the Atlantic from our NE???

[SnoSki14]

As much as we are pulling for now, lets not forget that the most dangerous aspect of the storm is the coastal flooding which could be borderline major for areas ravaged by Sandy that are still vulnerable.

Don't have a lot of confidence with whatever the Ukie shows but I won't completely discount it.

[christhesnowman]

liking this norlun trough agreement on models...still always a tough setup for models to grasp,   precip shield def further north then gfs said for initial batch so its always a good sign