96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 euro is meh overall. If its right no more than 3 inches at best for nyc for both events. The inverted trough is like 0.25 at best What about the interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The short term models have more for the trough than the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What about the interior? not a lot of precip..up north into nw ct and eastern ny its probaly 3-6 with the inverted trough but not much from the coastal. Interior as in nearby burbs ya it isn't great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This is a great way to finish up this winter. 2 systems. 1 - 3 inch. Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This is a great way to finish up this winter. 2 systems. 1 - 3 inch. Maybe Maybe but nothing is in the bag right now. Tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The short term models have more for the trough than the Euro and GFS. Ant , follow the Euro save yourself the pain . It is high res enough that it would catch a trough a day out The problem is inverted troughs are really hard to pin down , 2 x this yr once on the NJ shore and once between Boston and Bangor , busted the same day . Follow the Euro with this , just trust me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 euro is meh overall. If its right no more than 3 inches at best for nyc for both events. The inverted trough is like 0.25 at best Not what I wanted to see-looks like it backed off from last night. If it comes down over a long duration many near the city may not accumulate much of anything. GGEM and GFS didn't look that great with it either-it's really the meso models that really blow it up. I never rely on inverted troughs for just that very reason-this could easily trend into a pittance for us and instead consolidate more over New England with the best forcing from the low. Again, confidence level is very low for any real snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 42.6/33.2 and light rain has started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 There is alot of Time where I ride with Euro especially a few days out but at this point if your gonna follow any models better to go with all the short Range HI Res Models. In all truth I am more curious of what Nam says coming up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 so whats the total pecip on the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not what I wanted to see-looks like it backed off from last night. If it comes down over a long duration many near the city may not accumulate much of anything. GGEM and GFS didn't look that great with it either-it's really the meso models that really blow it up. I never rely on inverted troughs for just that very reason-this could easily trend into a pittance for us and instead consolidate more over New England with the best forcing from the low. Again, confidence level is very low for any real snow here. Confidence is low in this situation. It can go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 JMA has over 1.00 QPF http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif Thats the two parts. I wonder what the first 30 hours brings with the coastal? Also that lightest blue over E-NJ/NYC is 0.75 - 1.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not what I wanted to see-looks like it backed off from last night. If it comes down over a long duration many near the city may not accumulate much of anything. GGEM and GFS didn't look that great with it either-it's really the meso models that really blow it up. I never rely on inverted troughs for just that very reason-this could easily trend into a pittance for us and instead consolidate more over New England with the best forcing from the low. Again, confidence level is very low for any real snow here. It's funny how in the cases the Euro came north this season from earlier runs, it never resulted in a big snow event here. Just like in previous cases the GFS and NAM lead early with heavier amounts and then eventually backed off. I am not really sure why the models behave like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It funny how in the cases the Euro came north this season from earlier runs, it never resulted in a big snow event here. Just like in previous cases the GFS and NAM lead with heavier amounts and then eventually backed off. I agree, the Euro for the last several days NEVER showed our area getting hit hard with the CCB like the NAM and GFS did. It's hard to ignore the fact that when the Euro isn't gung ho about a certain solution, 9 times out of 10 it's probably right. It's ensembles also confirmed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Upton only has 1-2 inches for me tonight. That seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I always thought to use higher-res short-term models in situations like these, only because they were made for a situation like this IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It funny how in the cases the Euro came north this season from earlier runs, it never resulted in a big snow event here. Just like in previous cases the GFS and NAM lead with heavier amounts and then eventually backed off. The event tonight looks iffy at best with weaker dynamics due to the main CCB being just offshore. The event late tomorrow could just act to re-fire and sustain the snow over New England and never really dive south to here-the NAM could easily be overdone in sort of digging it into its own system as other models are flatter with it and eventually just phase it into the main ULL. Not sure if RGEM/NAM are the winning combination here when the Euro did the same thing in instead basically using this second wave to fire snow in upstate NY and over New England. I'm not as optimistic as I was earlier about much snow to be honest. CT could be better with the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 ECM is bone dry, and has the storm practically over already for NNJ. what to do...throw it out ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 How are all the models different when the storm is right on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I agree, the Euro for the last several days NEVER showed our area getting hit hard with the CCB like the NAM and GFS did. It's hard to ignore the fact that when the Euro isn't gung ho about a certain solution, 9 times out of 10 it's probably right. It's ensembles also confirmed this. The Euro was also wrong a few days ago about New England getting slammed. It wasn't great on this storm either. It seems like no model can really take a win. It's definitely SNE's winter, that's for sure. Euro annihilates Boston for a good 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GEFS members are all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The euro doesn't seem to match up with the radar over the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 so what was the qpf output for the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The euro doesn't seem to match up with the radar over the Delmarva I felt the same, just with it's 6 hour forecast. (it barely even had precip into SNJ yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The event tonight looks iffy at best with weaker dynamics due to the main CCB being just offshore. The event late tomorrow could just act to re-fire and sustain the snow over New England and never really dive south to here-the NAM could easily be overdone in sort of digging it into its own system as other models are flatter with it and eventually just phase it into the main ULL. Not sure if RGEM/NAM are the winning combination here when the Euro did the same thing in instead basically using this second wave to fire snow in upstate NY and over New England. I'm not as optimistic as I was earlier about much snow to be honest. CT could be better with the second wave. Agree , the Jump was always a possiblity . the confluence is enough that its erroded the precips Northward movement , the best Dynamics tonite with the SLP should slip by to our South and East overnite and then you open the firehouse into New England as it turns NE ... So you may see the 20 inch amounts in the MTNS OF VA and then a foot of Snow west of Boston , and very little here in the end . I dont buy the NAM period . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 There is little doubt looking at reports/radar/obs that the low pressure is more N and W and stronger then progged (maybe even more than the NAM). Which is good for QPF, but it is really challenging temps to the north of the low. Richmond has 6-8" to the south west of the low, while it is rain to the north. Well see how this translates as it heads NE..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Agree , the Jump was always a possiblity . the confluence is enough that its erroded the precips Norhtward movement , the best Dynamics tonite with the SLP should slip by to our South and East overnite and then you open the firehouse into New England as it turns NE ... So you may see the 20 inch amounts in the MTNS OF VA and then a foot of Snow west of Boston , and very little here in the end . I dont buy the NAM period . AEvery model except the Goofus and Euro are more wetter for the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 alright, people aren't buying the NAM...aren't buying the Euro...aren't buying the GooFS....so what are we left with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GEFS members are all over the place they look fairly consistent...what do the h5 maps look like - who cares about the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 alright, people aren't buying the NAM...aren't buying the Euro...aren't buying the GooFS....so what are we left with.JMA,SEFS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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